The NFL playoffs kick off tomorrow, and I wanted to give my picks for who I think will win each game in the Wild Card round and beyond this postseason.
It's been a fascinating regular season where it feels like a lot of these playoff teams have looked both really good and really bad at times. Therefore, predicting these games wasn't very easy. I had to rely on my gut feeling more than past performance, because everything changes once playoff football begins.
I'll present the bracket I made with each pick up through the Super Bowl, and then I'll discuss a little bit about my decisions for each round of the playoffs. Let's go ahead and dive right in.
Here's how I see the postseason ultimately playing out:
Wild Card Round
Let's start with the AFC. Buffalo over Pittsburgh is the only predictions I'm very confident in, as I don't think the Steelers have the firepower to go into Buffalo and knock off the Bills. Buffalo is peaking at the right time and should be able to move on to the Divisional round. However, due to Buffalo's propensity to struggle at times offensively, I do think this game will be closer than some expect. I took Pittsburgh to cover the 10-point spread, which you can read more about, along with my other favorite bets for Wild Card weekend, HERE. As good as Miami's offense has been for most of the season, they've really regressed over the last few weeks heading into the playoffs. And while the Chiefs haven't exactly been the best looking team this year, they seem to always be at their best when the postseason arrives. They also have Arrowhead and the frigid atmosphere on their side, along with a healthier crew of players. So I think the Chiefs advance without much trouble. If I had to rate my confidence level of this pick, I'd go with around a 7.5 out of 10. The Browns/Texans matchup is the one in the AFC that I could actually see going either way. But as much as I like what C.J. Stroud and the Texans have done this season, I have to side with the Browns here. Cleveland's defense is elite and Joe Flacco has been phenomenal since he signed with the Browns just a few weeks ago. And I'd side with the proven veteran over the rookie quarterback almost every time in the postseason. âNow for the NFC. This will be a bit more controversial because while I picked the favorite in every AFC matchup, I'm actually picking two upsets in the NFC. But first, the game I think will go how the sports books are projecting. The Cowboys have been one of the most consistent teams in football throughout the season, and they've also been spectacular at home. I like Jordan Love a lot, but I don't see the Packers being able to get the job done in Dallas this time around. Mike McCarthy will handle his business against his former team. Now let's get into the two upsets. First, a pick that I really didn't want to make. And that's because I, along with a lot of nonpartisan Americans, am really pulling for the Lions to finally break through and get their first playoff win since 1992. But I just have a feeling that that won't happen. Will it hurt more or less for Lions fans to see Matthew Stafford return to Detroit just to knock off the Lions with his new team? I'm not sure, but I did watch the Lions fall apart on Thanksgiving day against the Packers this year. And I have a bad feeling that something similar might happen against the Rams. Maybe not to the same degree, but I do think Los Angeles will get the win on Sunday night. And in what would cap off one of the biggest late season collapses in recent memory, I'm taking the Buccaneers to beat the Eagles at home on Monday night. Philadelphia has been utterly bad down the stretch, and it's been reported that Jalen Hurts has not been able to throw a pass since he hurt his hand in last week's game. Furthermore, A.J. Brown has not practiced this week since he went down either. So not only have the Eagles not been playing well, but they're also really banged up. I expect all of this to culminate in Tampa Bay pulling off the upset. Baker Mayfield has been sneakily good this season and I like Tampa's defense more than Philly's. It should be a good matchup, so I'm excited to see it play out. Divisional Round After all the winning teams advance and get reseeded, we have the following matchups according to my predictions: AFC:
Once again, I'll briefly touch on my picks for these four games, starting with the AFC. For the first time in his career, Patrick Mahomes will have to play a playoff game on the road. And with how the Bills have been trending, I think they're much better than the last time these teams met in early December. In fact, Buffalo's controversial win over Kansas City kind of sparked their late run. Josh Allen is bound to beat Mahomes in the playoffs eventually, and this would be the best time for it to happen. I think the home field advantage really helps Buffalo, and they send the Chiefs home much earlier than they've been accustomed to lately. One week after Matthew Stafford returns to take on his former team, Joe Flacco will do the same when the Browns travel to Baltimore. Only in this case, the Ravens get the win and send Flacco packing, potentially for good this time. Lamar Jackson will be the NFL MVP and the Ravens have been without a doubt the best team in the league over the last month or so. Baltimore will advance to take on Buffalo in the AFC Championship Game. In the NFC, we start with Tampa Bay traveling to Dallas. And once again, the Cowboys will benefit from playing at home. I think this will be a tougher opponent for Dallas than Green Bay was, but I still don't see the Cowboys struggling too much against the Bucs. They'll win and then hope either the Rams or the Lions will take out the 49ers. âSpoiler alert: they won't. I have the Rams facing the Niners in the Divisional round, but there's nothing that makes me think L.A. will knock off the 1-seed here. I mean, San Francisco nearly beat Los Angeles with their backups in Week 18. I'd expect the 49ers to win by around a touchdown, setting up a 49ers/Cowboys rematch in the NFC Championship. Championship Round Out of the four teams remaining, I think the Ravens have the best chance at advancing to the Super Bowl. They have the better matchup compared to the 49ers, who could have their hands full with the Cowboys. However, I still think San Francisco prevails, and we're set up for a Ravens/49ers Super Bowl. And the Super Bowl color conspiracy will continue to reign supreme. Super Bowl âIf all of my predictions so far come true, then we will have seen several rematches during the first three rounds of the playoffs. And I believe that in most every case, I picked the team who won the first time to win again in the playoffs. But even though the Ravens feel like the best team in football right now, I think San Francisco will get their revenge and beat Baltimore in Super Bowl 58 in Las Vegas. As I mentioned earlier, Lamar Jackson will almost definitely win MVP this year. And you know how many players since the turn of the century have won both the MVP and a Super Bowl in the same season? One. Patrick Mahomes did it last season. It's so rare that I'm using that as one of my biggest reasons for taking the Niners to hoist the Lombardi Trophy when the clock hits zero on Super Bowl Sunday. What do you think? Who do you think wins this week's Wild Card matchups and who do you have advancing to and winning the Super Bowl. Let me know in the comments and I hope you have an amazing weekend of playoff football. âWritten by Nick Swatson
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