Playoff football is here and after a ho-hum 3-3 betting record in the final week of the regular season, I'm excited to try to get back on the winning side of things in the first round of the postseason.
Before we get into my favorite picks for the opening round of the playoffs, I wanted to give a brief recap of my betting performance for the 2023 regular season.
I'll be honest. It wasn't a tremendously successful betting season for me this year. However, I did finish the season above .500. I ended with a record of 64-56, which means we hit at a 53.3 percent clip. In betting percentages, that's still higher than the 52.4 percent break-even point, meaning that if you tailed all my picks this season, you would have profited when it was all said and done.
The real money was in my weekly Locks, which lived up to their reputation by finishing 12-6, a 67.7 percent win percentage. There were only 18 of those bets I gave out (one per week), but that would have been a nice profit stream for you as well if you had just placed money on those each week. 
I split all the picks I gave this season by type to see which area I performed best, and it was pretty even between my bets against the spread versus bets on the point total. I did slightly better on my over/under picks than my picks against the spread. I only placed one bet on a team total, which did not pan out.
Here's a breakdown of my performance on a week-by-week basis: 
I gave out seven picks in almost every week, with only six picks given out in a few weeks here and there. I didn't have a ton of extreme weekly performances on one side or the other. My best performance was one 5-1 week (where I pushed on the seventh bet that week), and my worst performance came in an abysmal 1-6 stretch in Week 15 (where nothing went right). There were a lot of 4-3 and 3-4 weeks, so there weren't many significant ups or downs throughout the year.
Just a couple more data points before we get to my picks for Wild Card weekend. Like I did after last season, I wanted to see how I fared picking each team in the NFL. So I calculated how many wins and losses I had in games I picked involving each team. Here are the results: 
My best performances came in games featuring Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Seattle. Interestingly, I was undefeated on bets involving the Buccaneers this season after going 10-1 last season in the same statistic. I guess I just really know what to expect from the Bucs for some reason. Maybe I need to start picking their games every week next year.
My worst performances came from Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Houston, where I went only 1-5 on all those teams. There were several others which I couldn't seem to figure out either. I noticed last season that my success was very geographically oriented. By that I mean that I had a lot of success on teams that were closer to where I lived in east Tennessee, and performed poorly on the teams far away from me, especially those on the west coast. But that data wasn't consistent with this season's results. There were no major trends anywhere to pull from. Just a lot of good, a lot bad, and a lot of mediocre. Finally, here is a quick breakdown of my betting performance from last season to this season, which are the only two seasons I've analyzed my picks. Results are shown first by straight up records, and then by win percentages. 
As I mentioned at the beginning, I wasn't able to sustain last season's major success through 2023. But I did so well in 2022 that there was really nowhere to go but down. I'm looking forward to try to build back to my goal of a 55 percent hit rate next season.
But first, I want to win some money on this season's playoff games. And I'm going to start by putting together a collection of bets to make you and me some money in Wild Card weekend. Let's get into it. Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 vs. Miami Dolphins It's the postseason, which means it's time for the Chiefs to start trying. That's more or less a joke, but it does have a tinge of reality to it. Kansas City in recent seasons has sort of sleepwalked through the regular season before turning it on once the games become win or go home. And after a week of rest, Patrick Mahomes and KC's starters should be more healthy and loose than Miami's. The Dolphins have been regressing for pretty much the entire season after a really hot start, and they lost to Baltimore 56-19 in their most recent road game. Arrowhead Stadium is going to be rocking as the Chiefs win another home playoff game by a touchdown or more. Pittsburgh Steelers +10.0 at Buffalo Bills Both of these teams finished the regular season on win streaks to secure their spot in the playoffs. And while I love what Buffalo has done in that span, I think the Steelers are getting a bit disrespected with this spread. Their defense and play style is too good, and the Bills are too prone to turnovers and postseason collapses that I wouldn't touch Buffalo at -10. This should be a close contest that comes down to the wire and is decided by one score. Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions Over 51.5 The storylines for this matchup are tremendous. Detroit finally winning the NFC North and hosting a playoff game for the first time in my lifetime. Plus Matthew Stafford returning to his former home on top of that. And I expect the game itself to follow suit in its excitement. Stafford is going to want to put on a show in his return trip and both these offenses are capable of moving the ball and putting up points both through the air and on the ground. So give me the over in what could turn into an absolute shootout on primetime Saturday. Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 44.0 At the other end of the spectrum, I don't think we're going to see a lot of points scored between the Eagles and the Buccaneers. Philadelphia has struggled mightily in the finishing stretch of the regular season, and Tampa Bay isn't necessarily the defense you want to face if you're trying to build back some confidence. It's hard to imagine Tampa Bay winning this, even as the home team. But I wouldn't feel great about this game if I were and Eagles fan. And for me, it seems like I should definitely put something at stake in what could be the lone playoff game that features the Bucs, based on my performance picking their games this year. So I'll be on the under. Check back tomorrow as I'll be posting my full playoff prediction bracket and breakdown, where I'll tell you who I think wins each game and hoists the Lombardi Trophy on February 11. Until then, make sure to get your bets in for Wild Card weekend. Written by Nick Swatson Photo: "NFL Week 3: Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles" by All-Pro Reels is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.
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