 We've now seen five weeks of the NFL season, and it's time for me to update my predictions for how I think each division will shake by the end of the year. There have been some teams thus far that have vastly exceeded initial expectations, while there are others who have looked much worse than anticipated. Surprisingly, my predictions I made in the preseason still hold up pretty well in my opinion, especially for the NFC. While I do, of course, take into account how each team has fared in their first five contests, I also am still looking at each team with more of a longer-term viewpoint to determine whether or not some teams will either continue their early season trends or shift one way or the other. In general, however, if it's close, I'll stay with my initial picks for now rather than jump to alternate conclusions too early. Let's go ahead and take a look at my predictions for where each team will finish in their division standings and playoff picture over the next 13 weeks. *Spoiler Alert* x - clinch division y - clinch wildcard AFC East
1. Buffalo Bills - x 2. Miami Dolphins- y 3. New England Patriots 4. New York Jets Prediction Changes:
Analysis: I still am all in on a Buffalo Super Bowl this season, so it's no surprise that I'm keeping them at first in the AFC East after their dominant start to this year. I was initially torn between Miami and New England when I made my first predictions, but it's clear that the Dolphins are far superior to the two remaining squads in the division as long as Tua Tagovailoa is healthy. While he's had some scary injuries already this season, I think he'll come back relatively quickly and the Dolphins can continue their offensive success they had when he was under center. Part of me wanted to put the Jets, who are actually 2nd in the division right now, ahead of the Patriots, but I just have more trust in Bill Belichick's team in the long run. As a result of all of this, I made no changes to my predictions for the AFC East. AFC West 1. Kansas City Chiefs - x 2. Los Angeles Chargers - y 3. Denver Broncos 4. Las Vegas Raiders Prediction Changes:
Analysis: This division is the one that I made the most adjustments to with the exception of the Chiefs, who I still believe will win the West. I underestimated the Chargers and overestimated the other two teams in this quadrant. The blunt truth is that the Broncos and Raiders have looked far worse than I was expecting them to be prior to the regular season. For whatever reason, neither offense has gotten things going and find themselves at 2-3 and 1-4, respectively after five games. Las Vegas has their bye in Week 6, so maybe they can figure something out and turn things around here in the early part of the season. But I'm giving the nod to Denver simply because I like their defense more. As for L.A., I think they've looked good enough to now predict Justin Herbert to make his first career playoff appearance this season. AFC North 1. Cincinnati Bengals - x 2. Baltimore Ravens - y 3. Cleveland Browns 4. Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction Changes:
Analysis: All four teams in this division remain in their place, despite the fact that Baltimore is currently one game ahead of both Cincinnati and Cleveland through five games. Lamar Jackson has been incredible so far, but I still have faith in Joe Burrow and the Bengals to pull through and prove me right in my initial projections. I am, however, adjusting my predictions to include a wildcard berth for the Ravens. I just can't go against Lamar with how good he's been playing. The Browns feel like one of the most average teams in the league and I don't see them being as competitive as the top two teams in the North. But if they can hang around in the playoff mix until Deshaun Watson comes back and he's able to get back into form quickly, they could make something happen down the stretch. The Steelers are absolutely pathetic on offense, so regardless of how good their defense plays, there's not much of a chance for them to win many games. AFC South 1. Indianapolis Colts - x 2. Tennessee Titans 3. Jacksonville Jaguars 4. Houston Texans Prediction Changes:
Analysis: The Colts have looked really bad so far, but I'm standing by my predictions I made prior to the season for the AFC South. In all honesty, I think the Jaguars have looked the best out of all teams in this division, but it's a long season. I could see the Titans, who lead the division currently, finding a way to pull out the division crown. But I also don't trust Ryan Tannehill at all to lead his team when the pressure rises. The AFC South is really still up for grabs for any team, except probably the Texans. I don't think Houston is going to be able to find sustained success over the course of the season. NFC East 1. Philadelphia Eagles - x 2. Dallas Cowboys - y 3. New York Giants 4. Washington Commanders Prediction Changes:
Analysis: Somehow, the NFC East has become the best division in football from a record standpoint, featuring the lone undefeated team and two 4-1 teams after five games. I'd put the Eagles at the top spot in the NFL if I were ranking all the teams at this point. They've looked excellent on offense under Jalen Hurts and their defense makes lots of big plays as well. Cowboys fans thought their season was over before it really began when Dak Prescott exited with a thumb injury in their Week 1 loss, but backup Cooper Rush has pieced together a four game win streak with the help of his stellar defense. And the Giants are probably the most surprising team in the whole league after just mounting a comeback win over the Packers in London a week ago. Theoretically, this division is completely up for grabs at this point in the season. But I still think the Eagles are the best of the bunch, followed by the Cowboys, leaving the Giants to regress back to the mean as the season progresses. The Commanders have been really bad and given their quarterback inconsistencies and off-the-field team drama, I don't see them turning their season around very much the rest of the way. NFC West 1. Los Angeles Rams - x 2. San Francisco 49ers - y 3. Arizona Cardinals 4. Seattle Seahawks Prediction Changes:
Analysis: What was once widely believed to be the best division in football a couple seasons ago has taken a turn for the worse collectively. No team in the NFC West has been particularly good so far, but I'd honestly have to give the nod to San Francisco through five weeks. I'm extremely surprised by the ineptitude of the Rams this far into the season, who have displayed a massive letdown after their Super Bowl victory in 2021. Still, I think they'll turn things around eventually and end up on top by the end of the year. Arizona has also been a disappointment at the start of the season. They will surely see an uptick in offensive production when DeAndre Hopkins returns to the lineup in Week 7, but I like San Fran's defense and run game enough to keep them in the playoff picture ahead of the Cardinals. Seattle is definitely the worst team in this division, but they have been slightly better than I had expected after trading Russell Wilson to Denver. Overall, I like where I put these teams in the preseason so I didn't make any changes to my predictions for the NFC West. NFC North 1. Green Bay Packers - x 2. Minnesota Vikings - y 3. Detroit Lions 4. Chicago Bears Prediction Changes:
Analysis: No changes were made to the NFC North either. The Vikings are 4-1 and lead the Packers by one game at this point, as well as hold a head-to-head victory, but long-term, I'm still keen on Green Bay to take the division. I like how Minnesota has looked in their first five games and I'm still on board with them clinching a wild card spot. I know the Lions are just 1-4 right now, but aside from last week's game against the Patriots, they've been right there with a chance to beat some of the better performing teams in this early season. I'm not impressed at all with the Bears, and so I like my initial assumption that Detroit finishes ahead of Chicago. NFC South 1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - x 2. New Orleans Saints 3. Atlanta Falcons 4. Carolina Panthers Prediction Changes:
Analysis: The Buccaneers haven't looked great so far, but they still stand well above the remaining teams in the NFC South in my eyes. New Orleans and Atlanta both sit one game back at 2-3, and to be honest, the Falcons got hosed out of a chance to beat the Bucs last week. But Tampa Bay is surely going to outlast their division competitors and end up on top at the end of the regular season. The Panthers are in the worst shape of all teams having just fired their head coach. They do have a head-to-head win over the Saints, but with question marks at the quarterback position and no solid identity on either side of the ball, I've decided to move them back to 4th in the South behind Atlanta. So, do you agree or disagree with my final standing predictions? What teams did I get right or wrong and how might you expect the league to shake out differently? Be sure to express how I dissed your favorite team in the comments below, and check back after Week 10 of the season where I'll update my predictions after we see a few more weeks of NFL action. Written by Nick Swatson
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