It's time for the first update to my preseason picks for the final standings of each division and the playoff teams for each conference. Like always, there have been some surprises through this point of the season which will impact my projections for how things will shake out by the end of the year. These predictions will be based on a combination of each team's performances through their first four games and their outlook going forward. I will provide a new update after every four weeks of the NFL season and describe my changes and reasons for them from update to update. Keep reading if you want to see what position your favorite team will be in at the conclusion of the 2021 season.
*Spoiler Alert* x - clinch division y - clinch wildcard
AFC East
1. Buffalo Bills - x 2. New England Patriots 3. Miami Dolphins 4. New York Jets Prediction Changes:
Analysis: Buffalo had a rough week 1, but in the weeks since, they've looked completely dominant. I think it's safe to say that, with already a two game division lead, they're far and away the most likely team to win the division and compete in the postseason. The Jets have looked the worst so far from the AFC East, but they somehow find themselves in a tie for second place, technically, after notching their first win of the season in week 4. While Miami topped New England in their season opener, they've plummeted ever since while Mac Jones and the Patriots seem to look a little better every week. I think the Bills will be the lone team to make the playoffs out of this division, but if I had to pick a team to vie for the wildcard spot, it would the Patriots at this point in the season. AFC West 1. Kansas City Chiefs - x 2. Los Angeles Chargers - y 3. Las Vegas Raiders - y 4. Denver Broncos Prediction Changes:
Analysis: Amazingly, the Chiefs are currently in sole possession of fourth place with a surprising 2-2 record through four games. However, we all know that isn't going to last. Kansas City is definitely still the premier team in the AFC West for now, but I don't want to take anything away from the other three squads. The Chargers have two very impressive wins already, at Kansas City in week 3 before handing the Raiders their first loss of the year. Justin Herbert has the offense humming now and he looks like he could be the next star at the quarterback position. Las Vegas turned in three impressive performances before finally losing a game and Derek Carr has been equally, if not more than impressive than Herbert so far. Denver also remained among the unbeaten until week 4, but were not particularly close to beating the Ravens at home. Granted, Teddy Bridgewater got injured in the contest so we have to take that into account, but it's still too early for me to tell how good the Broncos actually are this season. For now, I'm taking the Chargers and Raiders to find away into the postseason through wildcard spots. AFC North 1. Baltimore Ravens - x 2. Cleveland Browns - y 3. Pittsburgh Steelers 4. Cincinnati Bengals Prediction Changes:
Analysis: It was hard for me to decide who I think will win the AFC North, as I think both the Ravens and Browns are neck and neck with each other. Both teams have excellent rushing attacks and menacing defenses and I could really see either team escaping with the division crown. I think whichever team finished in second will still secure a wildcard spot, nonetheless. As for the other two teams, Cincinnati has looked much better so far than Pittsburgh, but I still can't pick the Bengals to finish in third place in the division just yet. I have to give props to Joe Burrow for seemingly turning the franchise around, but I think he's still very early in that process. I'll assume the Steelers can figure things out and finish ahead of the Bengals when it's all said and done, but I don't expect to see them in the postseason. AFC South 1. Tennessee Titans - x 2. Indianapolis Colts 3. Houston Texans 4. Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction Changes:
Analysis: It looked like the Titans had a chance to run away with the division early after beating the Colts in week 3 and heading into a matchup with the Jets in week 4. But after a shocking loss to a team who some thought would finish 2021 0-17, there is now just one game separating Tennessee from both Houston and Indianapolis. Now, the Texans are trending down with the absence of Tyrod Taylor, who would actually give them a chance to win games if he were healthy. But the Colts, on the other hand, finally got a win on the road in week 4 and could possibly begin to surge upward behind Carson Wentz. The Colts have already dealt with a plethora of injuries so I don't think they'll have the depth to seriously contend for the AFC South crown, but they're at least in the running as of now. The Jaguars have some serious problems from the top down, as evidenced by Urban Meyer's latest bar stunt. I'll be surprised if they win more than 2 games this season. NFC East 1. Dallas Cowboys - x 2. Washington Football Team 3. Philadelphia Eagles 4. New York Giants Prediction Changes:
Analysis: The Cowboys look like one of the better teams in the whole league right now, much less the putrid NFC East. I wouldn't get too overly optimistic if I were a Cowboys fan simply because of their ability to screw things up, but things are looking good in Dallas at the moment. It was hard for me to rank the remaining teams, as Washington, Philadelphia, and New York have all looked essentially equally as bad through this point in the season. Washington does have a one game lead on the other two, but it's probably going to come down to who wins in intra-division play to see who finishes where in the final standings. There should only be one playoff team from this division again this season. NFC West 1. Arizona Cardinals - x 2. Los Angeles Rams - y 3. Seattle Seahawks - y 4. San Francisco 49ers Prediction Changes:
Analysis: As crazy at it sounds, there is still potential that all four of these teams make the playoffs. Seriously, I think all of them are good enough to contend in the postseason. So far, I think the Cardinals and Rams have looked a step ahead of the other two, and since Arizona topped L.A. last week and are the lone unbeaten team in the league, I have to give them props here as the future division winners. The Seahawks have had some struggles early on, but I like their long-term potential more than San Francisco's. It's going to be very interesting to see how this division plays out, and every divisional game for each team is going to be gigantic in determining the final standings. NFC North 1. Green Bay Packers - x 2. Minnesota Vikings 3. Chicago Bears 4. Detroit Lions Prediction Changes:
Analysis: Like in recent years, the Packers are by far the best team in the NFC North. Aaron Rodgers is officially back and he's going to win like he always does in Green Bay. While the Bears currently hold a one game lead on the Vikings, I think Minnesota is going to finish ahead of Chicago by the end of the season. The Vikings have already had a couple brutal losses and could very easily be 3-1 or better. Meanwhile, the Bears have tons of issues at quarterback, especially as long as Andy Dalton is injured. The Lions have continued to be the Lions in 2021, always finding new and innovative ways to lose football games. NFC South 1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - x 2. New Orleans Saints - y 3. Carolina Panthers 4. Atlanta Falcons Prediction Changes:
Analysis: While Tampa Bay has yet to look dominant this season, you have to assume that they're going to turn it on when they need it down the stretch. They're still winning football games, which is a feat in itself in the NFL, so we shouldn't overlook their accomplishments so far. Either way, I think the Bucs are definitely the safe pick to win the NFC South. The next two teams, however, were not as easy to decide between. The Panthers are 3-1 and have looked really good defensively for the most part this season. They also just added Stefon Gilmore to the secondary, who is sure to make an immediate impact. The Saints are only 2-2 and got demolished by Carolina head-to-head in week 2. But New Orleans was missing a ton of players and coaches in that contest. Due to the recent historical caliber of each franchise, I'm going to maintain my preseason prediction that the Saints will end up topping the Panthers and advance to the postseason as a wildcard team, but I could definitely see the reverse happening as well. As for the Falcons, well, if they would just give Cordarrelle Patterson the ball every play, they might actually win some more games. âLet me know how you feel about my predictions for your favorite team in the comments below. Written by Nick Swatson
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