DIVISIONAL ROUND RECAP AND REACTION

If, like me, you were a bit disappointed by the games in Wild Card weekend, I think you were much happier about the competitiveness of this weekend's matchups.  Only one of the four were decided by more than one score.  And although the favorites won three of the four contests, the games themselves were much more tightly contested.

I'm going to talk about each game that took place in the Divisional round, as well as give my projections for the conference championship games this upcoming Sunday.  We'll go through in chronological order, beginning with the early game on Saturday.

Houston Texans - 10
Baltimore Ravens - 34

This was the only game that turned into a blowout, but it was neck-and-neck through the first half.  Shortly after Baltimore went up 10-3 in the second quarter, Houston's Steven Sims took a punt back 67 yards for a touchdown to eventually take a 10-10 stalemate into the half.  Thought it could have been a 13-10 lead for the Texans if Ka'imi Fairbairns end of half field goal had gone in.  It likely wouldn't have mattered, however, as the Ravens scored 24 unanswered to put this game to bed in the second half in dominant fashion.

Lamar Jackson is the best player in football at this moment.  He amassed 250 total yards and four total touchdowns against a defense that had been playing really well in recent games.  I had initially picked the 49ers as my Super Bowl winner before the playoffs began, but I'm starting to wonder if anyone will be able to beat Baltimore this postseason.  We'll get a good idea of that on Sunday, when the Ravens host the Chiefs in the AFC Championship.

As for the Texans, they have nothing to be ashamed of despite an end to the season that may sting a bit.  But they vastly outperformed their expectations coming into the season.  And they also seem to have found their franchise quarterback in C.J. Stroud.  I would definitely say the future is bright in Houston and we should see them back in the postseason many times in the near future.

​Green Bay Packers - 21
San Francisco 49ers - 24

Though both teams got off to a really slow start here in the first half, the game got a lot more exciting when the offenses started to pop off in the second half.  The score was back and forth all game, with five lead changes in total.  But when Brock Purdy came through in the clutch to take the lead with just over a minute left, Jordan Love made a questionable decision and threw a bad ball that probably slipped out of his hand a bit due to the heavy rain.  And that made all the difference as San Francisco slipped by.

The Niners' offense wasn't great for most of this game, and that was likely partly due to the fact that Deebo Samuel went out with an injury on their first drive.  Players had to kind of swap around to fit into the new Deebo-less system, which led to Jauan Jennings taking on his role as an out of the backfield receiver option.  But while Brock Purdy didn't have a spectacular game, you have to give credit where it's due.  Purdy took care of the ball and hit the throws he needed to make on the final drive that ended in the end zone with a Christian McCaffrey touchdown.  San Francisco will hope that Deebo can return next week, as he's been listed early as 50/50 to be able to go.  But either way, it should be an exciting showdown when the Lions come to town with an NFC Championship on the line.

Similar to the Texans, the Packers didn't have very high expectations coming into the season.  Most honest Packers fans were thrilled just to make it to the playoffs, much less to dominate the 2-seeded Cowboys to become the first 7-seed to win a playoff game.  Also like Houston, Green Bay seems to have found their next franchise QB to take the torch from Aaron Rodgers.  This was the youngest team in the NFL this season and their future is very bright if those young guys can keep developing like they did from the start of the year to now.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 23
Detroit Lions - 31

The Brand New Lions have done what many people thought was impossible and clinched a spot in the NFC Championship for the first time since 1991.  And they never trailed in their Divisional game against the Buccaneers.  After they forced an interception on Tampa's opening drive, I had a feeling that the deafening crowd was going to carry Detroit to victory.  And they did just that.  Despite a gutsy performance from Baker Mayfield, it wasn't enough in the end as Detroit started and ended the game with picks to secure the victory.

Everyone in the NFL (except maybe Bucs and Rams fans) has to feel happy for the city of Detroit right now.  They've finally found the perfect head coach to represent their city, and he's built a very talented offensive and defensive unit for the Lions.  And even though they have to travel across the country for the NFC Championship game, they have a legitimate shot to win and advance to their first ever Super Bowl, especially if Deebo Samuel isn't back for San Francisco.  I can't wait to see what happens on Sunday night in the Bay.

​There's a theme developing here, as we have yet another team on the losing end of the Divisional round's games that far surpassed any expectations coming into the season.  Most people, myself included, thought the Buccaneers would be battling the Panthers for third place in the NFC South this season.  But nobody expected Baker Mayfield to be as efficient as he's been this year.  I would imagine he's played his way into another season in Tampa Bay, as it feels as if the team has united around Mayfield en route to their success this year.  They do have an older team, so there might not be many more seasons left in some of their veterans.  But despite a rough end to the season, I would say they're in a vastly better spot now than what most people anticipated.

Kansas City Chiefs - 27
Buffalo Bills - 24

This was the matchup I was most excited for this weekend.  And while it was a very good game throughout, it does feel like the viewers got screwed out of another all time classic ending because of a missed field goal by the Bills that effectively ended the game in the closing minutes.  Still, it was fun to watch Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen go back and forth for six total lead changes throughout the game.  Allen missed a few throws late and his receivers dropped a few well-placed balls that could have changed the outcome and not required a tying field goal attempt in the gusting winds.  But in the end, it was the Chiefs who prevailed and earned their spot in the AFC Championship game.

While Patrick Mahomes and the offense definitely made a lot of great plays throughout this game, I think you have to give credit to Kansas City's secondary for limiting Buffalo's downfield success.  Josh Allen was perfect on throws behind the line of scrimmage, but only 10 for 21 on throws beyond the line of scrimmage, with only two of those completions going beyond the first down marker.  After all the pregame talk about Mahomes entering his first ever road playoff game, he proved that it really doesn't matter.  And he and the Chiefs simply own Buffalo in the postseason.  Here's a crazy stat: Patrick Mahomes has been starting for the Chiefs since 2018 and they have never failed to reach the AFC Championship in that span.  They'll try to make it back to another Super Bowl when they travel to Baltimore next week.

It feels as though the Bills are always going to be in Kansas City's shadow.  I feel bad for Bills Mafia, but this felt like the year they would get the better of the Chiefs if there was going to be a time to do so.  Obviously Josh Allen is the guy in Buffalo.  And I think Sean McDermott is too.  But I'm starting to wonder if the Bills will ever get over the proverbial hill that is the rest of the AFC's elite squads.  This will certainly be a tough loss to process in Buffalo, but they should continue to at least have the talent to get back there next season.

Championship Round Preview

We're down to four teams left to vie for Super Bowl 58.  The AFC and NFC Championship games both take place on Sunday and are sure to be fun and competitive to watch.  Here's the schedule for Championship Sunday:

#3 Kansas City Chiefs at #1 Baltimore Ravens (3:00pm EST on CBS)

#3 Detroit Lions at #1 San Francisco 49ers (6:30pm EST on FOX)

In my original predictions, I said the 49ers would beat the Ravens in the Super Bowl.  And while I'm sticking by that prediction, boy, do the Ravens look tough to beat right now.  Either way, I think both the one seeds will get it done this weekend, though I expect both games to be close.  The Chiefs/Ravens game, especially, I could see going either way.  But ultimately, I see Baltimore and San Francisco coming through to further the Super Bowl logo color conspiracy theory.

​What do you think will happen this weekend and who do you hope to see in the Super Bowl?  Let me know in the comments and have a fantastic Championship Sunday in the penultimate weekend of football for the season.

​Written by Nick Swatson