Championship Round Recap and Reaction

We had, in my opinion, two great games on Sunday to determine who would make it to Super Bowl 58.  That is, unless you were a fan of either of the teams that lost.  Or someone with a heart and a soul.  Or someone who's sick of seeing Travis Kelce or Taylor Swift on your screens 24/7.

Aside from all that, the quality of each of the conference championship games was very good, especially in the NFC Championship.  I'll break down both games, give my thoughts on what happened, and make my early predictions for the Super Bowl today.

​Kansas City Chiefs - 17
Baltimore Ravens - 10

After forcing a three and out to start the game, Kansas City marched down the field with ease to score a touchdown on their opening drive.  And after swapping touchdowns the Baltimore on the ensuing two drives, the Chiefs never trailed.  

It was a clinic by Steve Spagnuola and the Chiefs' defense, who made big plays every time they needed one.  This was most evident in the second half, when La'Jarius Sneed punched the ball out of Zay Flowers' hands as he was diving into the end zone (just a couple plays after Flowers taunted Sneed following a deep catch on a wide open pass).  They also intercepted Lamar Jackson in the end zone on what was, for all intents and purposes, Baltimore's last real shot at winning the game.  But in the end, Patrick Mahomes and the offense made all the plays they needed to to ensure a victory.

People can talk about the seemingly lopsided officiating that occurred in this game, but there's no one the Ravens can blame for the loss but themselves in my opinion.  You can't turn the ball over in the end zone twice and expect to win in the NFL.  The mistakes were completely avoidable too.  We've seen turnovers occur all the time when guys try to extend the ball out to break the plane of the goal line.  They would've had a first down and four more plays to score from the one yard line if Flowers just keeps it tucked, if he doesn't still score in the first place.  And Lamar's game sealing interception was just a horrible decision to throw the ball into triple coverage in that scenario.

For the Chiefs, they'll now play in their fourth Super Bowl in the last five seasons, which is a phenomenal run at any time, but especially impressive given the strength of the AFC over the last few years.  And for a team that looked so mediocre just a couple months ago, like always, they've looked elite when it mattered most this postseason. It'll be hard to pick against them in their Super Bowl rematch with the 49ers.

As for the Ravens, you have to wonder why Lamar Jackson seems to play his worst games in the biggest moments.  He's just 2-4 in his postseason career, and his only victories came against the young, rookie QB led Texans last week and Ryan Tannehill's Tennessee Titans in 2021.  Lamar has simply not been good in the playoffs in his career, and you have to start to wonder if he'll ever get the job done.

​This isn't just pointed at Lamar either.  What about some of the other teams in the AFC?  Josh Allen's Buffalo Bills in particular.  This felt like your year to make it to the Super Bowl.  With the Chiefs in a bit of a down year and with guys like Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert out for most of the season.  It just feels to me like the Chiefs are going to win the AFC every year as long as Patrick Mahomes is healthy.  

The Chiefs are still the Chiefs as far as I'm concerned.  Whether the Taylor Swift conspiracies are true or not.

Detroit Lions - 31
San Francisco 49ers - 34

I'm pretty sure everyone in America outside of San Francisco was cheering for the Lions in this game.  And it looked like they were actually going to get it done early on.  Detroit got off to a very hot start, scoring the first 14 points of the game.  Following a 49ers scoring drive to open the second quarter, the Lions managed 10 more points to take a commanding 24-7 lead into the half.

Then, everything changed.  It started with a San Francisco field goal to open the second half.  Then a miraculous 51-yard completion on an overthrown ball that bounced off a Lions DB's facemask and into Brandon Aiyuk's hands.  Then a first play fumble on an inside run when Detroit got the ball back.  One more touchdown later and we were all tied up with just over a quarter to play.  The Niners ended up scoring 27 straight points to acquire a 34-24 lead with three minutes to play.  The Lions scored with under a minute left to cut it to a three-point deficit, but failed to recover an onside kick to get one last shot at victory.

It was an absolute heartbreaker for the Lions, who had to have gotten their hopes up massively after taking a 17-point lead into halftime.  But my biggest issue is with Dan Campbell's decision making and game management in the second half.  He passed up on two field goal attempts to go for it on fourth down, and they failed to convert both times.  Just one of those field goals would've ended up being enough to force overtime.  He also bungled Detroit's final possession, deciding to run the ball and calling his final timeout after a failed third-and-goal play.  This forced the Lions to attempt an onside kick rather than kick it deep and have all three timeouts to get the ball back with a stop.  This was such a crucial mistake because the onside kick success rate this season in the NFL was a mere 5 percent.  It was a tremendous season for the Lions, but they couldn't have had a more sour way to end the season with a trip to their first ever Super Bowl so close they could almost taste it.

As for the 49ers, they showed excellent poise to stay calm despite being dominated in the first half.  They made plays when they needed to in the second half, and with some 50/50 balls that went their way, they were able to get the job done.  Even when Brock Purdy doesn't have an impressive performance or stat line, he still seems to find a way to just win games.  And that's all that matters in the NFL.  We'll see if he can lead them to their first Super Bowl victory in 30 years and get revenge on the Kansas City Chiefs in the process.

Super Bowl 58 Preview

​So after all the drama that has unfolded this season, we're finally down to two teams.  And they were probably two of the most heavily picked teams going into the season.  Here are the details surrounding when and where to watch Super Bowl 58, which will be played in Las Vegas, Nevada on Sunday, February 11.

San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs (6:30pm on CBS)

The 49ers opened as 2.5-point favorites, but that number has already come down to just 1 point in San Francisco's favor.  Now, I bet against the Chiefs this past weekend.  And while I watched that game unfold, I vowed I would never bet against Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs again.  So with that said, my early pick is Kansas City as 1-point underdogs.  I think I'd also side with the over 47.5, as at least one team has scored 31 or more points in each of Kansas City's three Super Bowl trips the last four years.

It's sure to be a good game with two defenses that are playing very well.  But I think there will be a few crazy things that happen to cause the over to hit.  Plus, I like pulling for offensive shootouts in big games.  Regardless, there's no way I'm betting on Brock Purdy over Patrick Mahomes on football's biggest stage.

I'll post an article with my favorite bets and props for the Super Bowl closer to game time next week, so make sure to check back to see what bets are sure to win you money on Super Bowl Sunday.  Until then, enjoy the last two weeks we have before football is gone for six months.

​Written by Nick Swatson