Week 1 was not very kind to us after we finished the opening weekend with a sorry 2-4 record. And we completely whiffed on a couple of those picks (namely the Titans to cover and the under in Detroit vs. San Francisco). The Lock of the Week started in expected fashion, at this point, with a loss. If my weekly locks don't improve soon, I'll have to rename that pick the Fade of the Week. But week 1 is always the toughest to bet, so we'll learn from our mistakes improve going forward.
After using the prior season statistics and offseason personnel change knowledge to drive our opening week bets, we can now place our week 2 bets by completely overreacting to what happened in each team's first contest. There's no time to waste, so let's go 6-0 this week. Or at least finish above .500 for a change.
Los Angeles Rams at Indianapolis Colts Over 48.5
NFL football finally returns tomorrow and as I did last season, I will be giving out a few bets that I love each week so that you can win the weekend financially even if your team is unable to win on the scoreboard.
Last year was a positive betting season for me as I finished with a winning record of 56-52-4 from the picks I wrote about here. However, my "locks" of the week performed comically bad all season and finished 6-11 on the year. We'll look to improve upon the normal record in 2021, and my locks are destined for greatness this time around.
The opening week of any season is the hardest to bet, as you haven't had a chance to actually see any of the teams perform in a real game setting. But that won't stop us here, as I've done my research on all the rosters and matchups taking place this upcoming weekend and have supreme confidence in all the picks I'm giving out (like always).
âLet's get off to a strong start this year and have an undefeated week 1.
Tennessee Titans -2.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Our week 6 picks finished at a mediocre 3-4, suffering from a couple bad beats in the early slate of games. That brings our total on the year to 20-19-2, still floating just above the surface of a .500 season. I've been dreading addressing the fact that our Lock of the Week has now fallen to 2-4 on the year... But the law of averages states that the Lock is guaranteed to hit this week. Let's get into the picks so we can all go 7-0 in week (lucky number) 7.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans Over 50.5
This is probably going to be the best game of the week, and since I'm not a fan of either team, I wanted to make it even more fun to watch for me by placing a bet on it. I debated picking one of the teams to win outright, but I have no idea which team will win. I think the Steelers have a better defense, which would probably make me bet on them if I had to since the offensive stats are almost identical across the board. However, it doesn't matter who wins for us, because we'll have the over. Both teams are averaging over 30 points per game (ppg) this season, and the Titans put up 42 in each of their last two. Tennessee's offense is clicking on all cylinders, and because of that, Pittsburgh, who has typically scored just as much as it takes to win, will be forced to open up their offense to keep up with the Titans. Corey Davis will be returning, putting Tennessee's offense at full strength with the exception of Taylor Lewan, who will be out for the season. I expect the game to remain close, with the winning team putting up at least 35 points.
Week 4 was rough to us and we ended the week at a frustrating 2-3-2. The two pushes were exceptionally brutal, as the Dolphins settled for five field goals in a game in which we had the over, and the Chargers blew a 24-7 lead late in the first half to lose by a touchdown (which I did say would be the worst case scenario in my prediction last week). On top of that, three of the top four receivers expected to play in the Packers-Falcons game were out due to injuries, and the over didn't really come close as a result. That brings the Lock of the Week to a measly 2-2 and our total record to an average 13-12-2 through four weeks. Hopefully we'll have better luck this week and get further above .500 heading into week 6.
Carolina Panthers Money Line at Atlanta Falcons
Carolina is a one-point underdog in this one, but I think they should be favored. The Falcons have been dreadful this season and are sitting at 0-4, while the Panthers are coming off back-to-back wins against fairly formidable opponents in the Chargers and the Cardinals. Additionally, the Falcons could be without their top two receivers, as both Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley are currently listed as questionable. As we saw on Monday night, even if both suit up to start the game, there is a decent probability one or both of them won't finish it. And even with their two receiving stars, Atlanta's defense has proven itself to be lackluster at best. Teddy Bridgewater has been rolling as of late, and I like the Panthers to extend their win streak to three games on Sunday.
Last week was a success for our NFL picks, as we finished 5-2 to bring our total record to 11-9 on the year. The Lock of the Week hit for the second week in a row, making it 2-1 through three weeks. Although we're sitting at above .500 now, as I predicted in last week's bets, I want to get that win percentage even higher. So let's win some more games and bolster our bank accounts this week.
Arizona Cardinals -3.5 at Carolina Panthers
The Cardinals are coming off a loss to the Lions in a game where Kyler Murray struggled. Fortunately for us, that has allowed Arizona to sit as merely slight favorites according to Vegas against a bad Panthers team who is missing their best player. Murray and the rest of the offense were spectacular in the first two weeks against relatively good defenses, and they've held all of their opponents to 23 points or fewer. That won't change this week, as Carolina will struggle to reach 20, and Arizona will score at least 27 points to cover with room to spare.
We got off to a slow start in week 1, but managed to turn things around in week 2 by finishing 4-3 on the week, bumping up our total record to 6-8 on the year. More importantly, the Lock of the Week hit, which proves the week 1 loss that the Lock suffered was simply an anomaly Fortunately, I have a better feel for how each team is playing to begin the year, which will cause our win percentage to soar from here on out. We'll make another improvement this week and get above .500 on the NFL season.
Cincinnati Bengals +4.5 at Philadelphia Eagles
I'm high on Joe Burrow, despite his team resting at 0-2 after the first two games. This week, I think Burrow leads the Bengals to their first victory of the season over the discombobulated Eagles. The biggest thing to note here is that while Burrow has been solid at the helm of Cincinnati's offense, he and star receiver A.J. Green have not been in sync with each other. Green has been targeted 22 times in two games, only hauling in 8 of those targets. Burrow and Green are bound to get on the same page soon, and this week's matchup is a prime time for that to happen. Furthermore, Joe Mixon should be able to run more easily against Philly's defense than in prior weeks, which will take additional pressure off of Burrow and the passing game. Cincinnati covers with ease here in a game they'll win outright.
Well, it wasn't a good start for the season for us last week, as we finished at an unfortunate 2-5 and our Lock of the Week failed to hit as well. I have noted two things from week 1 of the NFL season: don't bet against Aaron Rodgers, and don't bet against the Patriots. I think there were some flukes in the opening weekend as teams were settling in after a long offseason. There were a plethora of bets with the majority of the money losing out due to some big upsets and lackluster performances. After getting a look at all the teams now, we'll definitely be winning more bets from here on out.
Cincinnati Bengals +6.0 at Cleveland Browns
We'll start our 7-0 week 2 stretch on Thursday night by taking Joe Burrow and the Bengals to cover, if not win against a Cleveland Browns team that looked abysmal last Sunday. Burrow played really well in his NFL debut except for one dumb mistake that led to a pick, and even threw a game-winning touchdown pass to A.J. Green that was called back for a weak offensive pass interference. He did miss a couple receivers for big plays, but that was probably a result of overexcitement from being on the big stage. He'll settle down in his second game and have more success against a deflated Browns team.
The NFL is back baby. And what's the only thing better than sitting back and watching the games unfold all day on Sunday? Winning money while you're doing it. I'll tell you how to do just that if you heed my free advice below.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings Under 44.5
I actually like both of these offenses on their own, but against each other, I don't think there will be a lot of points scored. In the two games the bitter rivals played against each other last season, the point totals reached only 37 and 33. You could argue the Vikings offense has taken a step back since last season after losing Stefon Diggs, and the Packers didn't do anything in the offseason to drastically improve their offense either. My only concern is that Aaron Rodgers comes out with something to prove and throws for 6 touchdowns on Sunday. Nonetheless, I think it will be a hard-fought defensive battle.