NFL Week 1

The NFL is back baby.  And what's the only thing better than sitting back and watching the games unfold all day on Sunday?  Winning money while you're doing it.  I'll tell you how to do just that if you heed my free advice below.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings Under 44.5

I actually like both of these offenses on their own, but against each other, I don't think there will be a lot of points scored.  In the two games the bitter rivals played against each other last season, the point totals reached only 37 and 33.  You could argue the Vikings offense has taken a step back since last season after losing Stefon Diggs, and the Packers didn't do anything in the offseason to drastically improve their offense either.  My only concern is that Aaron Rodgers comes out with something to prove and throws for 6 touchdowns on Sunday.  Nonetheless, I think it will be a hard-fought defensive battle.

Miami Dolphins +7.0 at New England Patriots

The Patriots are 7 point favorites in this game?  Seriously?  I get that Bill Belichick is perhaps the greatest coach in NFL history and Cam Newton has a chip on his shoulder, but you're going to need more than just Cam and Julian Edelman to score points.  And even if you do, are you going to be able to stop Miami?  New England lost Kyle Van Noy (to the Dolphins) and Jamie Collins in free agency, and Dont'a Hightower and Patrick Chung opted out of the season.  With the talent Miami has added this offseason, such as Van Noy, Byron Jones, Shaq Lawson, and Jordan Howard, I think Ryan FitzMagic and the boys will cover with ease, and possibly even win outright.

Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals Over 42.0

I think this over/under is set far too low.  A rookie quarterback is always sketchy to bet on, but that rookie quarterback is Joe Burrow and these two teams are not known for their defenses. Besides, there are some star skill players on both offenses.  Running backs like Austin Ekeler and Joe Mixon and receivers such as Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, A.J. Green, and Tyler Boyd will make the job much easier for both Tyrod Taylor and Joe Burrow.  I think the over could hit by the end of the 3rd quarter.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints Over 48.0

With the quarterback firepower and offensive weapons on both of these teams, they might each get to this point total on their own.  Hopefully Bruce Arians will be as pass happy this year with Tom as he was with Jameis Winston last season, and Brees's offense is always going to put up their fair share of points.  Personally, I hope the Saints win 49-0 because I'm playing against Tom Brady in fantasy this week.  I don't think that's likely, unfortunately, but the over will hit regardless.

Dallas Cowboys -3.0 at Los Angeles Rams

I really have no idea what the Rams are going to be like this year.  Sean McVay took the world by storm a couple years ago, but after getting stymied by the Patriots in Super Bowl LIII and paying Jared Goff $110 million guaranteed, their offense seems to have regressed significantly.  The Cowboys have some studs on both sides of the ball, and with their offensive line, run game, and receiving corps, I think they'll put up some points this season.  Especially considering Dak Prescott is still playing for a long-term deal.  I think Dallas wins easily on the road in LA.

Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos Under 41.5

Let's be honest, the Titans will probably run it with Derrick Henry 45 times and chew up the clock so that each team only gets 3-4 possessions.  Both defenses finished in the top half of the league last year in terms of points allowed per game, and while the Broncos just lost Von Miller for an extended period of time, the Titans defense has probably gotten a little bit stronger.  I'm still not sold on Drew Lock or Ryan Tannehill either, so my gut tells me this will be a slow paced, low-scoring game.

Lock of the Week:  Indianapolis Colts -8.0 at Jacksonville Jaguars

I would bet on the Colts here even if they were 21 point favorites.  Do the Jaguars even have enough players to fill out a 53-man roster?  It seems like they've gotten rid of anyone who played well for them last season.  I think they have to be tanking for Trevor, which I don't blame them for.  Either way, the Philip Rivers-led Colts got a great draw in the opening week, and the three-headed backfield of Marlon Mack, Nyheim Hines, and Jonathan Taylor might combine for 300 yards behind that nasty offensive line.  The Lock of the Week will comfortably get off to a 1-0 start for the NFL season.

​Written by Nick Swatson