NFL Week 2

Well, it wasn't a good start for the season for us last week, as we finished at an unfortunate 2-5 and our Lock of the Week failed to hit as well.  I have noted two things from week 1 of the NFL season: don't bet against Aaron Rodgers, and don't bet against the Patriots.  I think there were some flukes in the opening weekend as teams were settling in after a long offseason.  There were a plethora of bets with the majority of the money losing out due to some big upsets and lackluster performances.  After getting a look at all the teams now, we'll definitely be winning more bets from here on out.

​Cincinnati Bengals +6.0 at Cleveland Browns

We'll start our 7-0 week 2 stretch on Thursday night by taking Joe Burrow and the Bengals to cover, if not win against a Cleveland Browns team that looked abysmal last Sunday.  Burrow played really well in his NFL debut except for one dumb mistake that led to a pick, and even threw a game-winning touchdown pass to A.J. Green that was called back for a weak offensive pass interference.  He did miss a couple receivers for big plays, but that was probably a result of overexcitement from being on the big stage.  He'll settle down in his second game and have more success against a deflated Browns team.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins Over 41.0

Buffalo's offense looked really good in the first half of last week's game but slowed down in the second half due to fumbles and missed field goals.  I expect a similar performance against the Dolphins, but without the squandered possessions this time.  Miami struggled mightily against a Patriots defense that surprisingly didn't show many signs of regression from last year.  Though the Bills have a formidable defense as well, the Dolphins will get DeVante Parker back and should be able to a few points on the board at least.  They may not need many to get to the over, however, as Buffalo could potentially put up 30 or more on their own.

Minnesota Vikings at Indianapolis Colts Over 48.5

Speaking of the Vikings, I think their offense will do much better this week against a Colts defense that just got shredded by Gardner Minshew and a bunch of practice squad players in Jacksonville.  I expect both offenses to score a lot of points this week, as Philip Rivers threw the ball 46 times last week and the Colts are now without their starting running back, Marlon Mack, for the rest of the season.  Rivers connected well with Parris Campbell and pass-catching back Nyheim Hines last Sunday, and he'll find his rhythm with T.Y. Hilton sooner rather than later.  It feels almost like a must-win for both teams, and I think they'll both come out firing in Indy.

Arizona Cardinals -7.0 vs. Washington Football Team

I'll admit, Washington looked pretty good on Sunday.  But they were also playing a beat-up Eagles team that seems to have some off-the-field issues as well.  The Cardinals looked great and defeated the reigning NFC conference champs in San Francisco.  Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins have an excellent connection already, and Arizona's defense was stout against last year's leading rushing team.  Washington will be riding high following their unlikely week 1 upset win, but I think the Cardinals definitely win by more than a touchdown.

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers Over 47.5

This is the token over bet in a Chiefs game.  Mahomes and his weapons will put up enough points to cover their part of the over every game, it will just be a matter of whether the opposing team can score as well.  The Chargers' offense struggled against the Bengals, but they have too many good offensive skill players to be contained forever.  Tyrod Taylor will be more comfortable in his second start with LA, and while I think the Chiefs will win by a substantial margin, the over should hit with ease regardless.

New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks Under 45.0

I wanted to bet on Russell Wilson and the Seahawks here, but I couldn't bet against the Patriots again after they proved me wrong last week.  I do think Wilson will struggle a bit more against Bill Belichick's defense, and I expect New England to milk the clock on offense to keep the ball away from Seattle's offense.  There's no coach in the NFL who is better at managing the clock than Belichick, and he'll be running the ball often in an effort to limit Seattle's possessions.  I still think the Seahawks will win a tight one, but I wasn't confident enough to put my money on it.  The under is the safe bet, though, in my opinion.

​Lock of the Week: Green Bay Packers -6.5 vs. Detroit Lions

Aaron Rodgers did what I feared he would do last week when I bet the under in Green Bay's game against the Vikings.  Because of that, I'm all in on the Packers offense and I think they'll win easily this week in Detroit.  The Lions are coming off a loss to a division rival in which they could have won on the next to last play of the game had D'Andre Swift not dropped a wide open touchdown pass.  I think the Lions are far worse than the Vikings this year, and the Packers had no trouble handling Minnesota in a game that was never really close.  Green Bay at -6.5 is just a no-brainer to me.