NFL Week 9

Week 8 was a decent bounce back after a poor performance in Week 7 of the NFL season, but it could have been a lot better.  We suffered two pretty bad beats, including a 4-point loss from the Browns, who we took at +3.5.  Even more frustrating was the Cardinals scoring a touchdown with just over a minute left to cut Baltimore's lead to 10 before recovering an onside kick and kicking a field goal to ruin our Ravens -9.5 bet.

Still, we got back on the plus side for the week and the Lock of the Week hit yet again - though it took a near miracle for the Jets to pull off the sneaky overtime cover against the Giants.  

We now sit at 28-24-2 with a 6-2 Lock of the Week as we roll  into Week 10.  Let's go 7-0 this week with the bets I'll give you now.

Los Angeles Rams +3.0 at Green Bay Packers

I had to do a double take when I saw that the Packers were indeed 3-point favorites here.  It feels like the books are overreacting to LA's big loss to the Cowboys last week, because there's no way this Packers team should be favored to beat almost anyone at this point.  They simply can't score.  (Which is a pretty important element to have in a football team.)  The Rams have a decent team and are still in the playoff picture, but they have to get back on track this week.  Cooper Kupp has been way too quiet the last two weeks and this could be the perfect game for him to break out of his slump.  Give me the Rams by a touchdown-plus.

New England Patriots -3.0 vs. Washington Commanders

It's clear that the Commanders are mailing it in for the season after shipping their leading pass rushers, including Chase Young, just before the trade deadline this week.  Now, they looked pretty good against the Eagles last week, who they've competed against well this season.  But this is the same team who lost by 20 to the Bears a few weeks ago.  I'm not a big believer in this Patriots team either, but I trust Mac Jones more than I do Sam Howell.  New England will force a few turnovers that will put them in prime position to win and cover at home to inch Bill Belichick closer to the all-time win record.  And away from the all-time loss record... for now.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans Under 40.0

I don't really have too much to say about this game other than these two teams have a knack for playing in low-scoring games.  Six of Tampa's seven games this year have stayed under the point total, while five of Houston's seven contests have done the same.  C.J. Stroud might be good but he's young and has no help around him, while Baker Mayfield can't seem to generate an efficient offense even with a decent corps of playmakers around him.  I'm confidently riding the under here.

Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers Over 44.0

I was definitely expecting a number in the fifties here because 44 is way too low.  The Colts are still the only team in the NFL who has scored 20 or more in every game, and they'll continue that this week against a below average Panthers defense.  But even more importantly, the Colts can't stop anybody.  They let the Saints and the Browns, two teams with virtually no offense the majority of the season, score 38 and 39 points on them in back-to-back weeks.  And that's after the Jags dropped 37 on them in their rematch three games ago.  Indianapolis is banged up on defense and Bryce Young is in store for perhaps his best game of his career one week after securing his first NFL win.  Take the over here.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles Over 47.0

Both of these teams can really put points on the board, and I'm expecting both to do a lot of that on Sunday afternoon.  Dak Prescott just put together his best game of the season at the Rams and CeeDee Lamb finally had his breakout game as well.  The whole unit will be very confident going into Philadelphia in a game that every Cowboys fan knows is massive.  These will be the two teams vying for the NFC East title and Nick Sirianni will pull out all the stops and variations of the tush push to fend off their division rivals on their home field.  I'm really looking forward to this game as an unbiased spectator, but will certainly be partial to both offenses throughout.

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals Over 49.5

In a season that's been sort of dominated by unders, this is our third over bet of the week.  And that's primarily because of how good the Bengals looked last week against the Niners.  This will be a rematch of the game that ended Buffalo's season last year, and I think they'll come out firing as well.  Both teams have an insane amount of weapons that will be put to use in a potential shootout between two of the best young quarterbacks in the game.  The outcome could go a long way in deciding home field advantage in AFC playoffs, and I would lean toward the Bengals to get it done.  But I'd rather sit back and cheer for both teams as the points roll in.

Los Angeles Chargers -3.5 at New York Jets

I was going back and forth on this game for a while before finally recommitting to the Chargers.  The Jets are just so bad on offense that they're going to have to hold LA to about 17 points to even have a chance at winning this game.  And I don't think they'll do that.  I've been a bit disappointed with Justin Herbert so far this season but he was excellent last Sunday night against the Bears.  And yes, I know.  It was against the Bears.  But this team needed some confidence and they finally got it on primetime a week ago.  I think they take that momentum and ride into MetLife Stadium to take home a fairly big win on Monday night.

Written by Nick Swatson

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"NFL Week 3: Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles" by All-Pro Reels is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.