NFL Week 9

Week 8 was an absolute betting disaster, as we finished at an abysmal 1-6 on the week.  Just for fun, let's take a look at some of our bad beats:
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• Vikings at Packers Over 51: 50 points were scored in a game where the Packers had FOUR drives end without points in Viking territory, field goals being possible in two of which.
• Bills -4 vs. Patriots: Buffalo won by three after settling for a 28-yard field goal to take the lead with four minutes to play.  That's a field goal attempted from New England's 10-yard line.
• Titans at Bengals Over 52.5:  51 points were scored after the Titans struggled all game to move the ball against the pitiful Bengal defense.   Tennessee also threw an interception in the end zone and missed a field goal.  I won't even talk about the phantom defensive pass interference called on Joe Burrow's interception on Cincinnati's final drive of the game that would've given the Titans the ball on the Bengal 16-yard line with 3:06 to play.
• Chargers -3.5 at Broncos: Down 6 points with one second on the clock following a defensive pass interference in the end zone, Drew Lock threw a game-winning touchdown to win the game by a point in a game the Chargers led 24-3 midway through the third quarter.
• Buccaneers -11.5 at Giants: I don't even know how this game ended up being so close, but it should have never happened.

So, our season record has now disappointingly fallen below .500 to 26-27-2.  Unsurprisingly, the "Lock" of the Week also didn't hit yet again, bringing that to 2-6 on the season.  The weekly "locks" are just comical at this point.  My betting confidence is almost entirely shattered.  Anyway, let's try to win at least two bets in week 9.

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts Under 48

Last week, I bet the under in Indianapolis's game against Detroit, but points were surprisingly not hard to come by in that affair.  However, 21 points in that game were set up or scored by the Colts' defense or the Lions' special teams, and I predict much fewer mistakes will occur in a game involving the Ravens' fairly consistent offense.  Baltimore also has a strong defense, which will limit Indy's point-scoring ability.  Both teams like to run the ball and I think that will shorten the game and ultimately result in a grueling, low-scoring contest dominated by defense.  Neither team is allowing over 20 points per game, and I think the final score will reflect that statistic.

Chicago Bears at Tennessee Titans Under 47

After their pathetic showing against the Bengals last week, I have no confidence in Tennessee's offense against a much more impressive Bears defense.  However, I think that if the over hits, it'll be because of the Chicago's offense.  The Titans have been weak on the defensive side of the ball due to the lack of a pass rush, but Adoree Jackson will return this week and the addition of Desmond King should provide much needed support to the secondary.  Chicago has only scored 20 points per game on average, and despite Tennessee's defensive struggles, I don't think Nick Foles and company will have any more success than usual.  Five of Chicago's eight games have resulted in at least one team scoring in the teens, which I think will continue in Nashville on Sunday.

Carolina Panthers at Kansas City Chiefs Over 52.5

Patrick Mahomes came alive last week to throw five touchdowns against the Jets, and the Chiefs have now scored 78 points over their last two contests.  Carolina's defense has not done particularly well against the pass this season, and they'll have no chance of slowing down a red hot Kansas City offense that is finally getting into form.  Teddy Bridgewater has played well in a new offense, and Christian McCaffrey is trending toward making his return, which could add at least touchdown to the expected point total in my opinion.  I'd predict the final score to be around 38-24, which would allow the over to hit with ease.

Denver Broncos +4 at Atlanta Falcons

​Both teams are coming off wins against average teams, but I just don't trust Atlanta's defense in the slightest.  Drew Lock led a game-winning drive to put up 31 points against the Chargers, 28 of which coming in the last quarter and a half of the game.  The Falcons have allowed 423 yards per game, and I think the young Denver offense is underrated and becoming very respectable as they get to full strength.  Defensively, the Broncos have a clear advantage and should be able to contain an inconsistent Falcon offensive attack.  I think this is going to be a very competitive game that will likely be decided by just a field goal one way or the other.

Pittsburgh Steelers -14 at Dallas Cowboys

It's always risky to bet on a double digit favorite to cover in the NFL, but the Steelers are the best team in football right now and the Cowboys are unbelievably bad.  Dallas will be starting their fourth quarterback of the season and haven't scored more than 10, I repeat, 10 points in a game that Dak Prescott didn't start.  The Steelers have a much better defense than the three opponents Dallas has played without Dak, and I think Pittsburgh's defense will end up scoring more points than Dallas's offense.  The Steelers will only need to score three or four touchdowns to cover, and that will be easy given how atrocious the Cowboys defense has been this season.  This game will resemble Pittsburgh's 38-7 win over the Browns a few weeks ago, and Dallas may not score a touchdown unless the backups come in on Pittsburgh's side.

New Orleans Saints +4.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The rematch between the two NFC South heavyweights is probably the most intriguing matchup of the week, and since it's the Sunday night primetime game, I have to bet on it to make it even more exciting for me to watch.  While Tampa Bay looked fantastic in weeks 6 and 7, they narrowly escaped with a victory against the Giants in a game in which they looked very unimpressive.  The Saints have strung together three straight wins of their own after a stretch where they didn't look great, and they handled the Bucs with relative ease in their first matchup week 1.  Drew Brees and Tom Brady have been going back and forth for the touchdown record this season, and both will surely be at their best Sunday night in Tampa.  I expect a close affair, but I honestly feel pretty good about the Saints winning outright.  I'll stick with them to cover just to be safe.

"Lock" of the Week: Seattle Seahawks -3 at Buffalo Bills

​Is it just me, or have the Bills looked extremely pedestrian since week 5?  Josh Allen appeared to be the next young superstar at quarterback through four games, but he hasn't had a single passing touchdown in the last two games now.  On the other hand, Russell Wilson has now thrown for 26 touchdowns and is perhaps the leading MVP candidate at this point in the season.  There's no question that Wilson will shred a Bills defense that hasn't been great against the pass this year.  The big question is whether or not Seattle will be able to contain Buffalo's offense, as the Seahawks have given up a lot of points over the course of the season.  I think that while Allen may have a relatively big day, the Bills will be no match for the potent Seahawk offense.  The only question is whether Tyler Lockett or D.K. Metcalf will be the primary beneficiary from Russell Wilson's passing attack en route to their seven-plus point victory.

​Written by Nick Swatson