When it rains it pours...
Last weekend was one of the worst weekends of football I've had in a while, across both college football and the NFL. It started on Saturday as my Tennessee Volunteers steamrolled Alabama in the first half, only to get 27 straight scored on them to lose the game. There was questionable officiating and though I won't solely blame that for the loss, it really set the tone for how my weekend was going to go.
The next day, I watched as my Indianapolis Colts were legitimately robbed of a win after the refs made two inexcusable calls in the final seconds that would eventually give the Cleveland Browns the win. The NFL even went as far as to say the following day that both controversial calls at the end of the game were incorrect... But at that point, who cares? The outcome of the game has already been decided and it's not going to change. Just saying the calls were wrong doesn't do anything for anybody. How about we get some referees in there who won't make the worst calls at the worst times? It's way past time to make refs in the NFL full time. I have no idea how a league that makes as much money as the NFL hasn't done that when we see officials poorly determine the outcome of games time and time again.
And the ref screwing wasn't even over after the Colts game. The Rams were trying to get the ball back to score and tie up the game against the Steelers when Kenny Pickett ran a QB sneak on 4th and 1. He barely even made it back to the line of scrimmage but was somehow awarded the first down anyway. LA had no timeouts and couldn't challenge the play, and the game was effectively over. By the way, I was on the Rams -3 in that game. All this to say that last week just wasn't my week. I'm not sure what I did to deserve the outcomes I received, but there were a lot of whacky outcomes in the NFL in Week 7. I suffered the worst betting week of the season with a 2-5 record, but the minor setback is going to lead to a major recovery. We're still above .500 with a 24-21-2 cumulative record, and the Lock of the Week still sits strong at 5-2. Let's put last week behind us and roll to a more favorable outcome here in Week 8. Minnesota Vikings -1.5 at Green Bay Packers I think we're getting great value right now with the Vikings due to how bad they started the season. This is a team who everyone, including me, was about to write off a couple weeks ago. But after a big win against the 49ers, they now sit in 2nd place in the NFC North and in a good spot in at least the wild card picture with plenty of games to play. The Packers have been really bad offensively and Minnesota's defense just played probably their best game of the season. Jordan Addison is proving to be a weapon on offense even with Justin Jefferson out, and I think Kirk Cousins and the Vikings will go to Lambeau with a lot of confidence. Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans Over 35.0 I get that Atlanta's offense is weak and Tennessee appears to be packing it in for the season, but I think that's why this number is so appealing to me. I'm not sure that I've ever seen a point total this low, and just one or two whacky plays could lead to the over. I think the Falcons will have more success this week than they did against the Bucs last week, and their defense will likely cause a few turnovers that could lead to prime scoring opportunities. There's a good chance we even see a defensive touchdown for the Falcons. It might not be a shootout per se, but I still like the over here. New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins Over 47.0 The Dolphins return home after a tough loss on the road in Philadelphia, and I think they'll be eager to get back on the winning side of things against their division rivals. And I also think the over is the best play in this one. Miami is averaging just over 47 points in their home stadium through three games, which is absolutely absurd. And even though they just beat the Bills, I'm still not convinced that we aren't looking at a 4-13 caliber team in New England. They gave up 38 to the Cowboys and 34 to the Saints in back-to-back games a few weeks back, and I know Mike McDaniel is licking his chops as he prepares for this divisional game. I think there will be a lot of points scored in this one. Cleveland Browns +3.5 at Seattle Seahawks Myles Garrett is an absolute game wrecker. Which is why, even with a backup quarterback starting for Cleveland, I'm siding with them to cover against Seattle. The Seahawks were winning most of the game against the Cardinals last week, but they just couldn't put them away. But they won't get away with that against the Browns. Cleveland allowed a lot of points last Sunday to the only team in the league who has scored 20 or more every game the season. But they also forced a couple turnovers and blocked a field goal, and it's one or two of those kinds of plays that will give them the edge this week. Their defense is just too good to overlook in what should be a low-scoring affair. Baltimore Ravens -9.5 at Arizona Cardinals Speaking of the Cardinals, they now have to take on Lamar Jackson and the red hot Ravens. Baltimore's offense finally got humming against the Lions last week in a 38-6 victory, and Arizona's defense is going to have their hands full with the Ravens' two-threat attack. What I think will be even more impactful, however, is Baltimore's pass rush. The Cardinals have one of the worst offensive lines in the league, and Josh Dobbs has no time to do anything in the pocket. He can make things happen with his legs too, but not to the degree that Lamar does. I like the Ravens to continue their hot streak and beat the Cards by double digits as Dobbs starts for what could be one of the final times this season. Chicago Bears +8.5 at Los Angeles Chargers I'll just come out and say it. Justin Herbert and the Chargers have not been good this year. I'm not sure what it is, but Herbert has missed a lot of throws and he isn't getting too much help from his defense. On the other hand, we just saw rookie QB Tyson Bagent step in for an injured Justin Fields and lead the Bears to a rout against the Raiders last week. Which is why I'm optimistic that this is going to be a close game on Sunday night. LA has only won twice this season, by just seven- and four-point margins. They're not playing well enough to blow anyone out, and Chicago is starting to get more healthy outside of QB. I still expect the Chargers to win, but I think it'll be closer than a lot of people expect. Lock of the Week: New York Jets -2.5 at New York Giants The Jets are the better team at probably every position in this matchup, except maybe quarterback. But their defense is so elite that there's no way they'll let a backup QB get anything going on Sunday. Tyrod Taylor has played pretty well in Daniel Jones' absence, but the Jets are fresh off a bye and had a very impressive win over the Eagles in their last game. In what is essentially a neutral game in New York, I like the Jets to win by at least a touchdown. And that makes this our Lock of the Week as we try to get it back on track. Written by Nick Swatson Photo: "NFL Week 3: Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles" by All-Pro Reels is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.
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