NFL Week 8

Alright, we went 5-2 last week.  I can't be mad about that, it's a good week.  Our record for the season is up to 25-21-2, not bad at all.  But I need to address the poor performances of my weekly locks, because it has become ridiculous.

The Lock of the Week is 2-5 on the season... Two and Five.  How is that possible?  My regular picks not counting the locks are 23-16, almost 60%, and my so-called "locks" are hitting at a less than 30% rate?  It doesn't make any sense.  Here are the ones we've missed:

Our first "lock" in week 1: the Colts at -8 against the Jags.  SOMEHOW the pathetic Jaguars BEAT a pretty good Colts team.  

The "lock" for week 4: Over 57 in the Falcons at Packers, two teams that have historically put up TONS of points against each other, but Davante Adams, Julio Jones, and Calvin Ridley all end up sitting out, tanking the actual point total.

The "lock" for week 5: Cowboys -8.5 against the Giants.  Dak Prescott BROKE HIS ANKLE and Andy Dalton was unable to extend any sort of lead against the awful Giants.

The "lock" for week 6: Rams -3.5 at the 49ers.  L.A. somehow couldn't figure out a team that lost by 27 to the DOLPHINS the week before.

And the "lock" for week 7: Bills -11.5 against the Jets.  Buffalo kicked six field goals.  SIX.  They won 18-10 without being able to score a single touchdown.  If only one of those field goals is turned into a touchdown, we cover.

As you can see, we've had terrible luck with the "locks" of the week.  So much so that if you're following my bets, take my "lock" at your own risk.  Fade it for all I know.  I'm putting "lock" in quotation marks from now on until my luck changes.  Anyway, let's get into my picks for week 8.

Las Vegas Raiders +2.5 at Cleveland Browns

I know, Baker Mayfield just completed essentially 22 straight passes and threw for five touchdowns last week, but that was against the woeful Bengal defense.  I don't think Mayfield's play is sustainable, and he'll be missing his favorite target in superstar wide out O'Dell Beckham, Jr. for the remainder of the season.  Las Vegas just got clobbered by the Buccaneers, who may be the hottest team in the league over the past couple weeks, but I have a lot more confidence in Derek Carr and the Raiders than I do in Mayfield and the Browns.  The Raiders also have two good wins over the Chiefs and Saints, whereas the only impressive win the Browns have had was a few weeks ago against the Colts.  I think Las Vegas will win outright, but I'll take them against the spread just to be safe.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers Over 51

Alright, I got burned by this matchup in week 1, when it was discovered that both teams lacked any semblance of a defense.  While each team might have shown improvement on the defensive side of the ball, I'm more focused on the offenses.  I've loved betting the overs in Packers games this season, and their recent struggles have moved the point total well below where I think it should be for this game.  Remember, the first meeting between these teams resulted in a 43-34 victory for Green Bay, and Minnesota had no answer for Aaron Rodgers all game.  Dalvin Cook practiced in full on Friday and will be good to go for the Vikings, and I think the fact he's playing adds a few more points to the expected total itself.  Minnesota's offense typically plays well against teams without a great pass rush, so Kirk Cousins should have time to throw the ball downfield against a weak secondary.  We may not get quite as many points as the last time these teams met, but we'll get plenty enough for the over to hit.

Buffalo Bills -4 vs. New England Patriots

Despite getting burned by the Bills last week when they couldn't score a single touchdown on the Jets, I'm confident that they'll find success against the Patriots, who have looked pitiful in the past few games.  Cam Newton has thrown five picks in his last two appearances, and he only played a little over half of the last one before getting benched for Jarrett Stidham.  Cam has played too poorly as of late to have any kind of trust in him to keep New England close in this one, and if Stidham replaces him, it'll be because they're already trailing by double digits.  Bill Belichick does have a tendency to succeed against his divisional foes, but I'm betting that Josh Allen will get things figured out and his team will win without much struggle.

Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals Over 52.5

Both teams here are allowing 400-plus yards per game and are accumulating around 400 per game as well.  They are also both allowing over 25 points per game, and we've already seen the Titans pile up points basically all season.  Joe Burrow has proven he can light up defenses when he isn't getting sacked immediately upon receiving the snap, and even with Jadeveon Clowney, Tennessee hasn't excelled tremendously at putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks.  The Bengals took both the Colts and the Browns to the wire in their last two games, and looked substantially better in relation to their first several affairs.  Burrow has become well-acquainted with his receiving corps, and Giovani Bernard is very productive out of the backfield even with Joe Mixon out.  I don't think the Cincinnati will win, but I think it's very likely both teams reach 27 or more.

Indianapolis Colts at Detroit Lions Under 50

The Colts have lived off two things for most of the season: the run game and defense.  Fortunately, those are the two most important factors in creating a low-scoring game.  Indianapolis is only allowing 300 yards per game this season, which feels like an amazing feat when looking at how many yards and points offenses are putting up in the modern NFL.  Linebacker Darius Leonard, Indy's best defensive player, will be returning and the entire squad rested and healed up in week 7 on their bye.  Meanwhile, the mediocre Lions only managed to score 23 against the awful Falcons, and they would have finished at only 16 had Todd Gurley not scored with so much time remaining.  I expect the Colts to set the tone early with a hard-nosed defense and attempt to run the ball down Detroit's throat.  I picture a 24-20ish final score, leaving us a several point buffer on the point total.

Los Angeles Chargers -3.5 at Denver Broncos

My main reason for this bet is the fact that I've won three straight bets on the Chargers against the spread.  In fact, I'm upset that I didn't start betting on them sooner, because L.A. is 5-1 against the spread this season.  I'm not sure why that would change against a fairly unimpressive Broncos team.  Now, Denver does have a stout defense, so I'm a little worried about Justin Herbert having a letdown performance after getting his first career win last week.  But the more I think about it, the Chargers as a whole have played fantastically for much of their games against some of the most respected teams in the league.  L.A. has certainly been a first half team this season, but much like Jacksonville last week, Denver doesn't have enough firepower to mount a large comeback even with Drew Lock back at quarterback.  I'll be honest, I'm going to bet the Chargers to cover until they don't, so let's all hope they continue their streak this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -11.5 at New York Giants

Like I said earlier in this article, the Buccaneers are one of the hottest teams in the league right now, and that sets up for a potentially ugly game for Giants fans.  While Tampa will be without Chris Godwin, who has been in and out of the lineup all year, everyone else on the offense will be ready to go, and Tom Brady has finally gotten Rob Gronkowski involved in the offensive scheme.  The Giants have played teams close for much of the season, but the Bucs have won their last two games against the Packers and Raiders by a combined score of 83-30.  I don't have much more to say about this game other than the talent Tampa Bay possesses vastly outweighs that of New York.  It won't be remotely close on Monday night.

Lock of the Week: Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals Over 52.5

Both teams here are allowing 400-plus yards per game and are accumulating around 400 per game as well.  They are also both allowing over 25 points per game, and we've already seen the Titans pile up points basically all season.  Joe Burrow has proven he can light up defenses when he isn't getting sacked immediately upon receiving the snap, and even with Jadeveon Clowney, Tennessee hasn't excelled tremendously at putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks.  The Bengals took both the Colts and the Browns to the wire in their last two games, and looked substantially better in relation to their first several affairs.  Burrow has become well-acquainted with his receiving corps, and Giovani Bernard is very productive out of the backfield even with Joe Mixon out.  I don't think the Cincinnati will win, but I think it's very likely both teams reach 27 or more.

Written by Nick Swatson