NFL Week 7

If you ever see me try to bet on the Colts when they play the Jaguars in Jacksonville ever again, please call the White House and report this website as a scam.  I will deserve either prison time or a visit to the insane asylum if I make myself believe Indianapolis can finally play well in Jacksonville.  And also, screw the Saints.  That offensively fraudulent, red zone touchdown allergy-ridden, chip shot field goal missing lame team.  I'm never picking them to cover again this season either.

Now that I got that off my chest, yes, those are two of the teams who cost me bets in Week 6.  The Bears also let me down, but they're still cool with me because it was solely due to the unfortunate injury to Justin Fields early in the third quarter.  Otherwise, I think they would've defeated the Vikings.

We had a disappointing 3-3 record last week, but the Lock still cashed with ease.  That brings our season record to 22-16-2 with a now 5-1 Lock of the Week.  We need to get back on the winning side of things here in Week 7, and I'll give you the seven picks I'll be riding to make that happen.

Detroit Lions +3.0 at Baltimore Ravens

Come on, you can't tell me that almost everyone isn't on the Lions in this one.  They've just looked way too good in the first six weeks of the season.  The locker room has bought in to Dan Campbell's culture and from an outsider's perspective, they appear to have the camaraderie a team needs to succeed in the NFL.  Baltimore has shown flashes of proficiency, but they've almost been sleepwalking through much of the season.  They haven't been great on offense and their receivers have had trouble getting open and securing the football.  I can't imagine Detroit getting beat badly on Sunday, and given Baltimore's affinity for kicking field goals (even deep in the red zone), there's a good chance that a field goal is all that decides this game.  Which won't hurt us at a 3-point spread.

Washington Commanders at New York Giants Over 37.5

This is a bit of a sneaky pick for me, because I don't really love either of these offenses for obvious reasons.  But I did like what I saw from Tyrod Taylor against the Bills, and he'll probably be suiting up again for the Giants in MetLife Stadium this week.  Saquon Barkley and the Giants are going to find more success on the ground in this one and Taylor will protect the ball and make the right decision under center.  I also think Sam Howell and the Commanders will have an easier time moving the ball on their side as well, and the number is so low that it's hard for me to resist the over.  We won't need very many big plays to happen for it to hit.

Las Vegas Raiders at Chicago Bears Under 37.5

You couldn't pay me to watch this game.  Both starting quarterbacks are injured, so it'll be Tyson Bagent (yes, that's an actual NFL player) going up against either Aidan O'Connell or Brian Hoyer.  The only way either team is going to score (barring an unlikely defensive/special teams touchdown) is after a long, run heavy, drawn out drive to inside the 10 yard-line.  And that's going to really chew up the clock on both sides.  The Raiders defense is better so they'll probably get the win, but it won't be a pretty one.  Give me the under in this contest.

​Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Under 44.5

As a University of Tennessee graduate, it pains me to say this.  But I've lost a lot of faith in Josh Dobbs.  He has regressed since the first few weeks of the season as defensive coordinators have started to figure him out, and he's not helped by the fact that his starting running back is on the IR.  Arizona just doesn't have much to work with on offense, even though their defense is decent.  We just saw the Seahawks hold a resurgent Bengals offense to 17 points, and with Jamal Adams back with support from the 12th man, it'll be tough for the Cardinals to get anything going.  I'm expecting something like 24-13 in favor of Seattle.

Los Angeles Chargers +5.5 at Kansas City Chiefs

The last time the Chargers have lost in this matchup by more than six points: 2019.  And all their losses to the Chiefs but one overtime defeat since then were decided by just a field goal.  These two teams always play each other close, and I think that'll be the case this time around as well.  I know the Chargers haven't looked great this season, and Herbert maybe had his worst game I've seen him play on Monday night.  But LA had their chances on some big plays in that game that Herbert uncharacteristically missed.  I think they'll bounce back and give the Chiefs everything they can handle.  It should be decided by a field goal again, which doesn't bode well for the Chargers given their ineptitude in one score games.  But it won't matter for us, as they'll still secure the cover.

Minnesota Vikings +7.0 vs. San Francisco 49ers

This is a bit of a risk as of the time I'm writing this, as this bet somewhat rides on whether or not Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel play for the Niners.  Neither of them practiced on Thursday of this week, and there's a good chance that at least one of them doesn't suit up this week.  They do have an extra day to prepare for their Monday night game, but their statuses are both very iffy.  We saw how San Francisco's offense looked last week without their two stars.  It's almost as if Brock Purdy has benefitted from having one of the best supporting casts in the NFL.  I think the Vikings at home are nearly a lock if neither McCaffrey or Samuel play.  But even if they do, I'm trusting primetime Kirk Cousins to keep it within one score on Monday Night Football.

Lock of the Week: Los Angeles Rams -3.0 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Though I wasn't sold on them at the beginning of the year, I'm starting to really like this Rams team.  And now with Cooper Kupp back in action, they look like a legitimate contender in the NFC.  They'll be taking on a team from the east coast whose fans want nothing more than for their offensive coordinator to be fired.  If that's not an indication of where the Steelers are right now, I don't know what is.  I think most people in Pittsburgh know that their win over the Ravens before the bye was a fluke, and they'll be proven correct when Steelers lose this game by at least a touchdown.

Written by Nick Swatson

Photo:
"NFL Week 3: Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles" by All-Pro Reels is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.​