NFL Week 6

It was a mediocre 4-3 week for us in week 5, but after the start we had to this NFL season, stringing together two straight winning weeks is a positive sign at least.  We sit at 15-17 on the year now, and you would be 4-1 thus far if you had faded each of my weekly Fades.  I'm sticking with giving out 7 picks per week while we keep winning, so let's go ahead and get into my favorite bets for week 6.

Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Football Team Over 54.0

This is probably a popular pick this week, but there's good reason for that.  Both of these defenses are utterly porous.  They're both allowing over 30 points per game and over 400 yards per game, proving themselves to be unable to stop even otherwise poor offenses.  The Chiefs desperately need a win here, and this is exactly the game they'll need to get their offense back into gear.  And that's what they're going to have to do in order to win, as their defense is not likely to provide any favors in that regard.  Look for Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to have monster days and for points to pour down in abundance.  I think both teams will hit 30 here.

Los Angeles Rams -9.0 at New York Giants

It's always dangerous to bet on a road favorite in the NFL, especially when the spread is nearly double digits.  But the Giants are missing a ton of key pieces on offense.  Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay have already been ruled out, and Darius Slayton and Kadarius Toney are listed as questionable.  Daniel Jones is going to be playing (somehow) but are we sure that the man even knows what day it is?  I have no idea how he cleared concussion protocol so quickly, but even if he is playing to a reasonable level, he's not going to have much help out there on offense.  The Rams have a lot of close victories this season, but this won't be close by any stretch of the imagination.  L.A. will surely win by 10 or more in New York.

Arizona Cardinals +3.5 at Cleveland Browns

I get that the Browns are the home team in this matchup and a formidable team, but I'm a little surprised that they're favored here.  The Cardinals will be looking to preserve their status as the lone undefeated team in the league, and I haven't seen quite enough yet from Cleveland to convince me that they'll be able to beat Arizona this week.  After all, they've lost the only two games they've played against what I would consider good teams.  While the Browns will be getting Jarvis Landry back for this one, they'll be missing Nick Chubb, which I think will be a pretty significant impact to their offense.  I'm siding with the Cardinals here and while they might not win outright, I think they'll definitely make it a field goal game or closer.

Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots Over 50.5

The Cowboys' offense is on fire right now, putting up 44, 36, and 41 points in their last three affairs.  New England's defense will certainly provide more of a test that those three former opponents did, but nonetheless, I really like what Kellen Moore is doing in Dallas.  I don't think Dak Prescott and company will necessarily put up 40 again in this matchup, but the weakness of Dallas's defense will allow Mac Jones and the Patriots to have a little more success than usual.  I think the Cowboys get the victory and push their win streak to five games, but the over is definitely the play in a game that should see quite a few points.

Detroit Lions +3.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals

The Lions have suffered some absolutely brutal defeats this season, and that trend repeated itself last week after Detroit managed to make a late game comeback to grab the lead with under a minute left against the Vikings before losing to yet another game-clinching field goal.  The man who seems to be built for Motor City, Dan Campbell, shed some tears postgame after their most recent loss, indicating just how much he cares about football and the Lions' organization.  This week, as they return to Detroit and take on the Bengals, it feels like a perfect scenario for the Lions to claim their first win of the Dan Campbell area.  However, I could never bet on the Lions to win outright, so I'll just take them to cover the 3.5 spread instead.  Plus, the odds have to be pretty good that even if Cincinnati wins, they'll do it on a game-winning field goal, which would secure us the cover either way.

Seattle Seahawks +5.0 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Some people might question why I would bet on the Seahawks with a backup quarterback.  Firstly, the Steelers don't deserve to be favored by 5 points against anyone with how bad they've been this year.  They have managed two impressive wins so far, but they've looked pitiful, especially offensively, in their three losses.  Seattle is going to have to find a way to compete without Russell Wilson for at least a few weeks, and Geno Smith showed me that he could be an adequate temporary fill in for Wilson.  Smith nearly mounted a successful comeback against the Rams last Thursday, and his interception that ended the game was the result of Tyler Lockett slipping immediately as the ball was being thrown.  I have some belief that the Seahawks can actually win this game in Pittsburgh, but I have a lot of confidence that Geno will play well enough to keep Seattle in the game and give them a chance at the end.

Fade of the Week: Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans Over 53.0

​Josh Allen and the Bills are the hottest offensive team in the league right now.  Since losing in week 1 to the Steelers, they've put up 35, 43, 40, and 38 in each game since.  And in all but maybe one of those games, they stopped really trying to score by the fourth quarter due to the leads they amassed in the first three quarters.  If there's a team that's going to challenge Buffalo's defense and force the Bills to continue their efforts to put points up throughout the entirety of the game, the Titans are a good bet to be that team.  They'll finally have Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, and Julio Jones all healthy and should be able to find some success both on the ground and through the air.  This should be a really fun game to watch, and with how bad Tennessee's defense is, they'll surely have to put up close to 40 in order to actually win the game.  I see no way that the over doesn't hit here, which is why you should put all your money on the under.


Written by Nick Swatson