Another week, another 4-3 finish for us here to take our season record to 17-12. We’re still consistently making a bit of money, but I’m just waiting for the breakthrough week where we rake in the dough. Sadly, our Lock of the Week suffered it first casualty of the season after the Bills and Ravens stopped scoring in the second half in an ugly weather matchup in Baltimore. The Lock is still performing well this season, however, and is now 4-1 through four weeks. We’ll look to get back on track with the Lock and expand on our previous success overall as we head into Week 5 of this NFL season.
New York Giants +8.0 vs. Green Bay Packers (in London)
I typically don’t like betting on NFL games played overseas just because the uniqueness of the travel and environment can have varying effects on different teams. But I think an 8-point spread in this matchup is too high. The Giants have been much better this season than most people expected them to be due to a strong run game and a decent passing defense. Granted, the quarterbacks they’ve faced so far pale in comparison to Aaron Rodgers. But the Packers aren’t winning games by a large margin in the early part of the season. The only team they’ve defeated by more than 3 points is the Bears, whom the Giants also just beat 20-12 at home. Games played in London are tightly contested more often than not, and I think both teams will have to adjust to the atmosphere post kickoff. Green Bay will probably win, but certainly not by more than a touchdown.
Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns Over 47.5
If you’ll remember, this matchup in 2021 finished with a score of 47-42 in an absolute shootout. Now, I may have let that game sway me a tad more than it should have, but I can see this game getting up there in the point total. Both squads have tended to play in higher scoring games this season, as the Chargers have multiple weapons to hit for explosive plays on a regular basis. The Browns don’t have quite as much offensive firepower, but the consistency of their run game opens things up a little bit for Jacoby Brissett. They also make big plays on defense and capitalize by turning them into points the other way. Both teams also allow a lot of yards both through the air and on the ground, and the loss of Joey Bosa will be felt by the Charger defense. I’m calling this game somewhere in the 27-24 range one way or the other.
Detroit Lions +3.0 at New England Patriots
It feels like the Lions are making teams play at their pace this season, which is something the Patriots have been known to do but have struggled with in 2022. While both teams only have one win on the year, Detroit has looked better in my opinion and consistently keep games very close even if they aren’t able to pull off the dub. There’s a strong possibility that both Mac Jones and Brian Hoyer will miss Sunday with an injury, leaving Bailey Zappe to make his first NFL start. I’m convinced the Lions, who are 3-1 against the spread this season, will not only cover the three points at New England, but will also win outright to get to 2-3 on the year.
Arizona Cardinals +5.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
I really like the Eagles this year so far. They’ve looked pretty dominant in most of their games in this four game unbeaten stretch to open the season. But it feels like Kyler Murray and the Cardinals offense are starting to piece things together and get the ball rolling a little bit after a bit of slow start. Philly has dominated in the run game behind Miles Sanders and the dual threat Jalen Hurts, but Arizona’s defense has been fairly stifling against the run thus far. The Eagles are bound to eventually suffer a setback, which I think will come on the road after flying across the country to Arizona. They got off to a slow start last week before piling it on the Jaguars, but I don’t expect their offense to be quite as effective against the Cardinals. They may well still pull off a win on Sunday, but I expect the game to come down to just a field goal.
Dallas Cowboys +5.5 at Los Angeles Rams
Why are the Rams favored so much after the beat down delivered to them by San Francisco last Monday? Especially going up against the Cowboys, who are now 3-0 with Cooper Rush under center. The Rams are the team from the NFC everyone expected to find repeat success from a year ago, but they’ve gotten thrashed by both of the two good teams they’ve played this year now. Offensively, Los Angeles has no identity right now and they frankly look like a bottom tier team on that side of the ball. On the other hand, Dallas has been performing just fine without Dak Prescott and their defense has been strong, holding all four opponents to under 20 points so far. This is going to be another low-scoring matchup, the kind both teams have tended to play in this season, and I don’t think enough points will be scored for the Rams to cover 5.5 here. I sort of feel like Cooper Rush is going to lead his team to yet another win on the road in L.A.
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs Over 51.0
I’m not sure what it is, but the Chiefs always seem to find a rhythm offensively against the Raiders. And the Raiders have been known to answer. Going back to 2018, here are the points Kansas City has amassed in each game against Vegas (or Oakland): 48, 41, 35, 32, 40, 28, 35, and 40. The Raiders haven’t really shown it much, but they do have the tools to take a step forward this season once they get all their pieces to click together. And that’s what I’m expecting to happen Monday night that just played in another prime time shootout game a week ago. The Chiefs are still the better team and should come out on top, and when Patrick Mahomes throws for four-plus touchdowns, Derek Carr will respond with a few of his own. This game could see the 60s or 70s by the time it’s all said and done.
Lock of the Week: Tennessee Titans 2nd Half Team Total Under 10.5 at Washington Commanders
The Titans have the worst second half offense that we might have ever seen through four games of an NFL season. Through those four affairs, they’ve managed a whopping seven(!) points in the second halves. That’s just seven points over eight quarters, all in the second half. They haven’t scored a point in the second half since Week 1. That’s a pretty remarkable stat. So here’s what’ll happen on Sunday at Washington. Tennessee will score 17-24 points in the first half, build a bit of a lead, and then go silent after halftime, allowing Carson Wentz and the Commanders to come back and make it a game. They may still pull out the win, but it won’t be because of their offensive performance in the final two quarters. And that’s why this pick will serve as our Week 5 Lock of the Week.
Written by Nick Swatson