We collapsed down the stretch after a decent start to Week 4 and finished with a casual 4-3 record for the week. Still a winning week, but could have been better. The Lock of the Week suffered its first casualty of the season when Patrick Mahomes decided to slide at the Jets' 1-yard line instead of scoring in the final seconds. It was the right move, but no less infuriating when a play like that costs you a bet.
We now sit at 14-11-2 on the season with a 75% hit rate on the Lock of the Week. I have a good feeling that we're going to elevate both figures in Week 5 with the seven picks I'm going to give you right now.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts Over 43.5
We have two pretty evenly matched teams here, both sitting with different outlooks on their 2-2 starts to the season. The Titans ranged from abysmal to pedestrian in their first three games but looked very impressive in their home win over the Bengals last week. Whereas the Colts have already begun to exceed expectations and despite some injury issues, Anthony Richardson has shown flashes of his massive potential already. And this week, with the Titans coming to town and Jonathan Taylor suiting up for the first time in forever, I think there will be fireworks on both sides. Both games the Colts have played at home have gone over the point total, and I think Tennessee will actually build on last week's performance to find success in Indy. Side note: Ryan Tannehill anytime TD is nothing short of a lock. He seems to always score on an obvious QB keeper at the goal line against the Colts, in which all 11 players on the defense swarm Derrick Henry. New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots Under 39.0 Man, this matchup has the under written all over it. Three of New England's four games so far have stayed under the point total, including both of their home contests. And the Saints haven't hit an over yet - just four straight unders in their games. Each team has only reached the 20-point mark once this year, and 20 is the max either team has scored. We're coming off a week where both these teams combined for 12 points. In short, the offenses are not good. But the defenses are, and even though this is a very low number (as it should be), I'm still going to follow the trends and side with the under. Arizona Cardinals +3.0 vs. Cincinnati Bengals I don't know what's going on with the Bengals, but they've simply been bad this year. I think part of the issue is Joe Burrow's lingering calf injury, which is limiting his ability to move in the pocket and extend plays. But when you look at the trends of both of these teams, it seems clear to me that the Cardinals are the better unit at this moment. And yes, I do know how crazy that sounds. Arizona got whipped by the Niners last week, but who hasn't this season? And they actually had some chances to keep it closer but couldn't convert. Josh Dobbs has played great in Kyler Murray's absence and there's a really good chance he gets his second career win this week at home, which is where they dominated the Cowboys two weeks ago. The Bengals aren't playing good enough right now to beat anyone by more than three points, so this number is great for a bet on the underdog. Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 at Minnesota Vikings There's only one team in the NFL that Patrick Mahomes has yet to beat: the Minnesota Vikings. And while I just lost my Lock of the Week because Kansas City failed to cover, I'm putting my confidence right behind them again in a very favorable matchup with a struggling Vikings team. Minnesota is a couple bad losses away from scrapping their season and potentially dealing Kirk Cousins away. The Chiefs seldom have back-to-back bad games, and Mahomes will be itching to get back out there and cook after getting statistically out-dueled by Zach Wilson. Give me the Chiefs by a touchdown, minimum. New York Jets +2.5 at Denver Broncos Speaking of Zach Wilson, how about his performance on Sunday night in what was looking like potentially his last start as a Jet? He looked confident out there and became the first quarterback to ever beat Patrick Mahomes in every passing statistical category in a head-to-head matchup. Even though they lost, I think Wilson won over his teammates with his performance and the entire squad will come out guns blazing this week. The Zach Wilson to Garrett Wilson connection is finally starting to heat up (which I'm thankful for because Garrett is on my fantasy team) and the Broncos are undoubtedly one of the worst teams in the NFL at this point. I think the Jets defense stifles Sean Payton's offense and the Jets get the win outright, but New York against the spread is the safer play. Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers Over 45.0 The 49ers are hands down the best team in the NFL right now in my opinion, and they've scored 30 or more in each game so far. And that's without really being pressured by their opponents to keep scoring in all but one game. Similarly, the Cowboys have only failed to reach 30 once in a letdown game at Arizona. Now, both these squads have very good defenses, but I like the offenses to win out in this matchup. Brock Purdy has been extremely efficient and I was leaning toward taking the 49ers, but the more I think about it, I think the better bet is the over. I'm not sure if both teams will reach 30 again, but I could see something like a 27-24 final, allowing us to cash with ease. Lock of the Week: Miami Dolphins -12.5 vs. New York Giants This number is massive by NFL standards. But the Giants have been almost comically bad this season. They've been outscored 64-3 on their home field. Daniel Jones gets sacked almost immediately after he receives the snap. And half their offensive line and their workhorse running back are still injured. Miami suffered their first loss last week in convincing fashion, but they couldn't ask for a better bounce back opponent here. They get to return to South Beach and the venue where they have scored 70 points this season. All in one game. We just lost a similar bet for the Lock of the Week last week, but I'm all in on the Dolphins in this one against the other New York team. Miami might score a hundred. Written by Nick Swatson Photo: "NFL Week 3: Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles" by All-Pro Reels is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.
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