Week 3 was our first big step in the right direction, with a 5-1-1 effort to get us back over .500 with a 10-8-2 record on the season. The only loss was due to the Chiefs nearly reaching the point total by themselves in their 41-10 routing of the Bears.
Even more exciting, Seattle handled Carolina to take the Lock of the Week to a perfect 3-0 to start the year. We'll keep the wins going in Week 4 to stretch our profit margin even wider with the seven picks I'm giving you right now. And our weekly Lock will get the Taylor Swift treatment en route to a 4-0 record. Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills Over 54.0
I was really leaning toward taking the Dolphins as 2.5-point underdogs in this matchup, but I think the over is the smarter play. Miami just put up SEVENTY points against the Broncos, something that hasn't been done in almost 60 years. And they did it without their superstar WR2, Jaylen Waddle. On the other side, Buffalo scored 37 against Washington in their blowout win. And both teams really let up on the gas for the final quarter after the game was already decided. Now, each offense will be up against a better defense than they faced last week. But I expect this to be an explosive, back and forth game with a lot of points. Buffalo won this matchup 34-31 in the playoffs the last time they met, and I think the Dolphins have only gotten better. This game should reach 60-plus again this time around.
Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 at Tennessee Titans While they notched their first win of the season on Monday night, Cincinnati still hasn't looked great so far. But Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase finally got going in that game and I think the Bengals will continue to find success offensively against a subpar Titans defense. But I think this game will more so be decided by Tennessee's struggles on the offensive line. Cincinnati's D-line feasted against the Rams, causing chaos every time Matthew Stafford dropped back to pass. The same is going to happen this Sunday in Nashville, and the Titans won't be able to overcome it. I think the Bengals win by more than one score. Indianapolis Colts +1.0 vs. Los Angeles Rams I've been thoroughly impressed by the Colts so far this season, as they currently sit atop the AFC South following their 2-1 start. The beat the Ravens in a hard-nosed, overtime slugfest behind backup QB Gardner Minshew and former Ram Matt Gay, who knocked through four field goals of 50-plus yards. They'll get Anthony Richardson back this week at home against the Rams, who have lost two in a row following their season opening win. LA is still missing Cooper Kupp, and Matthew Stafford has been a bit turnover prone so far. I think Indy wins a close one outright to get to 3-1 before a big divisional game against the Titans. Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears Over 46.5 I'm either going to look like a genius or an idiot by taking the two worst teams in the league to actually muster 47 or more points combined. But I think the two defenses, especially Chicago's, are so weak that there's almost no way they can keep the other out of the end zone. Both teams combined to allow 111 points last week alone, which is a seemingly impossible number for NFL defenses. Each team is desperate for a win and will use this game to get their offenses some confidence, win or lose. Get ready for some fireworks in a matchup that no one outside of Chicago or Denver really wants to watch. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints Under 39.5 These two offenses are bad. No team has scored over 20 points in any of New Orleans' first three games, and it'll be even tougher for the Saints to hit that mark if Derek Carr isn't in the lineup. Both defenses in this matchup are very solid, and these two teams meeting up has led to very low-scoring games in the past. You have to go back to October of 2021 to find a game between these two that ended up with a lot of points. The three matchups since then have totaled 9, 30, and 33 points. I think the low-scoring trend continues this week and the total falls well below 40. Seattle Seahawks -1.0 at New York Giants I love this Seahawks team and it feels like they keep getting disrespected by Vegas since they lost big in Week 1. But we're going to take advantage of that. The Giants have been awful this season, as they got off to a 60-0 starting deficit in their first two games. They ended up with a comeback win in Week 2 against the Cardinals, but returned to their normal status last Thursday against the 49ers. Seattle's defense will have an easier time this week and their offense will continue to roll behind their young star-studded skill groups. And that will lead to us winning more money off the Seahawks in Week 4. Lock of the Week: Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 at New York Jets I think this number should be even higher with how these two teams have looked to start the season. Yes, the Jets have a good defense and solid weapons on offense. But they're not going to come close to winning anything with Zach Wilson as their quarterback. Especially not when the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs come to town on Sunday night. And do we really think Kansas City is going to do anything but dominate with Taylor Swift in attendance? (That's a sentence I never thought I would write.) Travis Kelce might score three TD's to make up for his relatively average performance in Week 2. The Chiefs will win by double digits. Written by Nick Swatson Photo: "NFL Week 3: Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles" by All-Pro Reels is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.
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