NFL Week 3

We started off looking very promising last week, winning our first three bets on Sunday.  However, those would end up being our only three wins for Week 2, finishing with a 3-4 record on the week.  That brings our season record to 5-7-1 - not great, but not terrible after two weekends of NFL football.

The good news is that the Lock of the Week was one of the three wins on Sunday, so it's now off to a 2-0 start in this young season.  We'll turn it around here in Week 3 and get back to above .500 with the following seven picks.

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns Under 39.5

These two teams are fairly similar with iffy quarterback play, strong run games, and solid defenses.  And the latter aspect is what I'm relying on when they face each other Sunday.  This will be Cleveland's first game without Nick Chubb and Deshaun Watson hasn't shown me anything that I would be confident about if I were a Browns fan.  Similarly, I don't trust Ryan Tannehill at all going up against a defense that has only allowed 15 points all season.  Barring any defensive touchdowns, this game should stay well below the number.

Chicago Bears at Kansas City Chiefs Under 48.0

Kansas City's offense hasn't really gotten going yet, and they won't really need to against a really bad Bears team.  The Chiefs bounced back from their Week 1 home loss to shut down the Jaguars completely, and I expect more of the same this week.  Kansas City could potentially score a lot of points against Chicago's defense.  But they won't need to.  This should be something like a 24-10 victory for the Chiefs.

Los Angeles Chargers +1.0 at Minnesota Vikings

This is a massive game for both of these teams, who have both started 0-2 despite lofty expectations coming into the season.  This is essentially a pick 'em game, and based on what I've seen from both teams so far, I like the Chargers to get their first win on the road in Minnesota.  Kirk Cousins has actually been quite good so far, but Minnesota's defense just can't stop anyone.  The Chargers haven't been great on defense either, but they've shown more upside to me early in the year.  Both teams desperately need this win to prevent an 0-3 start, but I like the Chargers to secure it.

New England Patriots -2.5 at New York Jets

Zach Wilson's stats in his four career games against New England: 693 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions with a 50.6 percent QBR.  If you watched New York's game last week against the Cowboys, you, like me, must have nearly zero faith in Zach Wilson going forward.  While the Patriots are 0-2 so far, they've played two really good teams close.  I think Bill Belichick's defense will cause chaos for Wilson and lead the Pats to their first win of the season.  I love this number at 2.5, as we'll just need a field goal separation to win money when they do.

Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals Over 43.0

I was impressed with how Josh Dobbs and the Cardinals looked early against the Giants, and they played well enough to get the win.  But their defense was not on the same page.  If you give up 31 points to the Giants, how many are you going to give up to the Cowboys?  Not to mention the fact that Dallas' defense and special teams are liable to score themselves.  The Cowboys should score 30 points at minimum, and the unfortunate injury to Trevon Diggs could open room for Arizona to score some points late, if nothing else.

Los Angeles Rams +3.0 at Cincinnati Bengals

Here's the deal.  Joe Burrow re-injured his calf last week and is questionable to play on Monday night.  But even if he is able to go, Cincinnati's offense has looked way less than stellar through their first two winless games.  Now, the odds are good that they'll figure it out eventually.  But I'm not sure that this week is they week they'll do it.  The Rams have looked really solid even without Cooper Kupp or a workhorse running back early in the season.  Just based on what I've seen from both teams so far, I really like taking the Rams to cover the 3 points on Monday night.

Lock of the Week: Seattle Seahawks -6.0 vs. Carolina Panthers

Seattle looked bad in their first game, but had a really good bounce back performance in Week 2 to beat the Lions in overtime.  And yes, it's actually an impressive win when you beat the Lions this year.  Carolina is coming off a close loss on Monday night, but they aren't a very good football team.  And even more, Bryce Young has been battling an ankle injury and didn't practice on Thursday, leaving us to wonder if he'll be suiting up this Sunday.  It seems about time for the Seahawks to put together a complete performance and beat the Panthers by double digits.

Written by Nick Swatson

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"NFL Week 3: Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles" by All-Pro Reels is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.