NFL Week 3

Son of a gun, I've done it again.  After starting 4-0 in the early Sunday afternoon window before losing all three later afternoon bets in Week 1, I managed to do almost the exact same thing in Week 2.  Again, we started 4-0, though since I gave out eight picks instead of the usual seven, we were able to add one more win late Sunday afternoon (thanks Cincinnati and Dallas) to arrive at a respectable 5-3 for the week and 9-6 on the year.

I'd just like to point out that the Falcons had no business snagging their backdoor cover against the Rams, who were winning 31-10 with just over eight minutes to play.  Also, one "screw you" is due to Kirk Cousins, who threw three (nearly four) interceptions inside Philadelphia's 27-yard line in the second half to ruin our shot at the over in a game that saw 31 first half points before the absolutely scoreless second half.

The brightest side of our performance so far is that the Lock of the Week is an unprecedented 3-0 through just two weeks.  The Lock is on fire, and we'll ride that hot streak as long as we can through this so-far whacky NFL season.

Miami Dolphins +5.0 vs. Buffalo Bills

BSSR's leading college football expert, Alex Hill, filled me in on a statistic today that has led me to make this pick: since the start of the 2021 season, the Dolphins have defeated every team they've faced who's quarterback has the letter "O" in their name, while losing every game in which the opposing QB's name did not include an "O."  Of course, since Buffalo's QB is Josh Allen, it appears Miami will not only cover, but also take the outright win.

While I'm only kind of serious about that absurd statistic, I do think the Dolphins have a pretty fair chance of knocking off the Bills, who have looked virtually unbeatable in their first two games.  The big three of Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle proved last week that Miami has probably been underestimated by many in the sports media so far.  They'll be hungry to prove they belong among the top contenders in the AFC on their home turf.  Not to mention top Buffalo defensemen Micah Hyde and Jordan Phillips have been ruled out.

Baltimore Ravens -3.0 at New England Patriots

I know Baltimore's defense just gave up 42 points in their loss to the Dolphins, but let's keep in mind that the Ravens were up 35-14 with just over 12 minutes left in the game before Miami's offense exploded to come back and win.  The Patriots have a solid defense like usual, but their offense is mediocre at best.  And they certainly don't have the explosive weapons that Miami does to be able to torch this Ravens defense.  Lamar Jackson is still playing out of his mind so far this season and even on an off day, I think he's still the ultimate difference maker that will give his team at least a touchdown edge over New England.  I could see this game easily being decided by double digits. 

Detroit Lions +6.0 at Minnesota Vikings

Did no one else watch Minnesota's game against the Eagles on Monday night?  They looked pitiful offensively against a defense that surrendered 35 points to the Lions in Week 1.  Detroit has actually looked really good in their first two games (relative to how Detroit has typically looked over the years), which is why I think this number is too high.  Kirk Cousins is somewhat of a hit-or-miss guy who's been hard to rely on despite him having arguably the best receiver in the league among his pass catchers.  The Lions notched their first win last season against the Vikings, and I think there's a decent chance they pull it off again this week.  I see this game being decided by about a field goal one way or the other.

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders Over 47.5

Let's be honest, the Eagles don't have a very good defense.  I'll give credit to Darius Slay, but they took advantage of three poorly thrown balls by Kirk Cousins in the second half of their Monday night game.  I love Philly's offense, however.  Jalen Hurts has been on fire to start the season and has a reliable group of weapons to rely on for the first time in his career, and he's taken advantage of it.  They would have definitely scored well over 24 last game if the game script would've allowed for it.  And with Chase Young still sidelined, the Commanders aren't stopping anybody.  Here's a surprising stat, though: Carson Wentz is second in the league in passing yards through two games.  If he had played like this last season, my guess is he'd still be a Colt.  And I think Washington will be able to keep up with Philadelphia for at least two or three quarters before the Eagles pull away at the end.  But give me the over in this one.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Chargers Under 42.5

This line shifted from around six points in favor of the Chargers to just three on Friday night, indicating that there is considerable reliable information circulating that Justin Herbert won't be suiting up for L.A.  While I still don't feel very confident siding with the Jags even if Herbert is out (they're guaranteed win over the Colts at home each season doesn't mean too much to me anymore), I think the play is the under in this game.  Even if the Herbert, who's listed as a game-time decision does end up playing, he still may be without his top receiver, Keenan Allen.  And with C Corey Linsley doubtful, there's a good chance L.A. will decide to hold Hebert out altogether to prevent him from taking any more big hits without the captain of the O-line.

Regardless of who takes the field for the offense, that Charger defense is better than their stats indicate.  The Jags have been impressive early on and are actually the only team in the AFC South with a win, but their offense won't be as fierce as L.A.'s previous two opponents (Las Vegas and Kansas City).  I expect this to be a slow moving, low scoring, grind it out game that will probably be fairly competitive even if the wily veteran, Chase Daniel, gets the start at home.

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals Over 48.5

I was ready to write off this season as a wash for the Cardinals, at least until DeAndre Hopkins returns in Week 7, but after their crazy comeback overtime win against the Raiders last week, I'm hoping their offense got the spark of confidence they needed to turn things around going forward.  The Rams haven't looked as dominant on defense as many people thought they would in their first two games, which is partially due to the fact that they kicked off against the Bills in Week 1.  These teams are not afraid of points when they face off against each other, combining for well over 50 in four of their last six matchups.  I see this being another one of those games, something like 31-24 in favor of the Rams.

​Lock of the Week: Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 42.5

​Yes, these two teams have two of the greatest quarterbacks to have ever played the game.  But they're also both reeling from somewhat of a lack of weapons on each side and are also known for getting off to slow starts in recent years.  Tampa's defense has also looked dominant in their first two games, allowing only 13 total points to make up for their offense's lack of efficiency.  I get the feeling that the Bucs are wanting to take it easy at the beginning of their season and rely on the defense to win them games to preserve 45-year old Tom Brady for the long haul.  Aaron Rodgers and company looked much better at home against the Bears in Week 2, but they'll be taking on a different monster against the Bucs' D.  I envision a 20-17 affair favoring either team to take our Lock of the Week to 4-0 on the season.

Written by Nick Swatson