Week 1 was brutal for us, as our 2-3-1 record was just a few cumulative points from being 5-1. We were on the Over 38 on WAS/ARI, which ended 20-16. The Over 46 failed to hit on Sunday Night Football despite the Cowboys scoring 40 by themselves. And the Eagles and Patriots hit the point total on the head to spoil our under 45 bet and result in our first push of the season.
However, the Lock of the Week is starting out strong as the Jaguars covered against the Colts. We're going to go 18-0 this year with our Weekly Lock, but we'll also turn it around on the remaining games each week beginning in Week 2. Here we go. Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
I'm not worried about the Chiefs' long-term potential despite their lackluster showing in Week 1, but I absolutely love the Jaguars getting 3.5 points at home against the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last season. Jacksonville is going to win the AFC South with ease, and the Trevor Lawrence-Calvin Ridley connection is already in mid-season form. We still don't know who will be able to catch Patrick Mahomes' passes until Travis Kelce comes back, but even if he does return this week, the Jags have a good enough defense to keep him relatively in check. I think the Jaguars will win this game, but it likely could be decided by a field goal either way.
Las Vegas Raiders at Buffalo Bills Over 46.5 I know Josh Allen and the Bills offense are itching to get back onto the field in Buffalo and put up some points against a much less stout defense than they faced on Monday. Buffalo might score 35 by themselves against the Raiders this week, and Vegas' offense looked solid enough in Week 1 for me to trust them to add a few scores as well. It's also possible that Allen has one or two turnovers that set up the Raiders in a good spot to score. The data and my gut tell me to take the Over in this one. Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals Over 46.5 Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson both had probably the worst games of their careers in Week 1. They combined for just over 250 passing yards, no touchdowns, and one interception. But there's no way those guys don't bounce back in a big way in a division rivalry game in Week 2. I think each QB accounts for 3-plus touchdowns in what could be considered a shootout in the AFC North. I don't know which team will win, but it doesn't matter because we're taking the over. New York Giants at Arizona Cardinals Under 40.0 I'm not making the same mistake as last time here. I slightly overestimated the Cardinals offense and after their first game, I'm not sure if Arizona will win a game until Kyler Murray comes back. On the other side, we have the only team who hasn't scored a point in 2023 and whose offensive line is one of the weakest we've seen in a long time. New York can't play worse than they did last week, but I think this will be a low scoring, 17-13 type game in the Giants' favor. New York Jets +9.5 at Dallas Cowboys I get that the expectations for the Jets have gone down precipitously following Aaron Rodgers' injury, but we all saw that defense on Monday night secure the comeback win after Rodgers went down. The Cowboys annihilated the Giants on Sunday night, but we still don't know what their offense is capable. Their first two touchdowns were scored by the defense or special teams and the game was essentially over from there, allowing them to run the ball for most of the second half. I expect the Jets to cause chaos and turnovers on defense again which will allow them to stay well within striking distance by the end. Dallas might win, but it won't be by more than a touchdown. Cleveland Browns -2.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers I have to say it. The Browns looked like one the best teams in the league last Sunday in their stifling of the projected division winners. On the flip side, the Steelers had one of the worst performances in a 30-7 loss to the Niners. San Francisco torched Pittsburgh on the ground last week, and the Browns are going to do more of the same. Kenny Pickett has some tendencies to turn the ball over, and the Browns should have no problem limiting his success after holding Joe Burrow to just 82 passing yards. Even though it'll be in enemy territory in Pittsburgh, the Browns will win by more than a touchdown in Monday night's final game. Lock of the Week: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 vs. Chicago Bears I was thoroughly impressed with the Buccaneers on Sunday as they raided Minnesota and took down the Vikings. I was close to giving out the Vikings -5.5 in last week's article and boy am I glad I didn't. Baker Mayfield seems to have commanded the respect of his teammates and let's not forget that Tampa still has one of the best receiver duos in the league. The Bears are downright bad, and there's not much else to say about them. Give me the Bucs to win big in their first home game of the year and take our Lock of the Week to 2-0. Written by Nick Swatson Photo: "NFL Week 3: Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles" by All-Pro Reels is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |