For the most part, when I was right on New Year's weekend, I was very right. But on the bets I missed, I completely whiffed. It was nearly a wash of a week betting wise but we did manage to barely come out on top with the Lock of the Week cashing by half a point in Sunday night's contest.
That brings our season record to a healthy 61-53-3. We have one more week to push for a higher win percentage before the playoffs begin, as well as one final Lock of the Week to attempt to secure a .750 win percentage for its season.
The trickiest part about betting on Week 18 is to find teams that actually have something to play for. Some teams who have clinched their playoff position will be resting starters, which could also play to our benefit. But those games will be much more difficult to predict.
I think I've found seven plays to make in the NFL's final regular season week that will lead you to financial success whether your team is still in the playoff picture or not. Here they are. Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens Over 34.5 Pittsburgh still has an outside shot at the playoffs if they win and get some help. And luckily for them, the Ravens have nothing to play for this week with their #1 seed already secured. Now, it feels like this is a brand new Steelers team since Mason Rudolph has taken the QB job, as they've scored 30-plus points in back-to-back weeks. They might not put up 30 this time, but I think they'll get close with Baltimore's defense not at full strength. And I also have faith in Ravens' backup quarterback Tyler Huntley to move the ball and get some points on the board as he tries to prove himself as a potential starter elsewhere at some point in his career. Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans Under 41.5 If you heard Mike Vrabel's press conference earlier in the week, you'll know that this Titans team is tired of winning. They're not rolling over and giving up, despite having nothing to play for on their own end. However, they could spoil their division rival's chance to win the AFC South if they can pull off the upset on Sunday. I don't think they will do that, but I think the defense will come to play in a classic low-scoring, grueling effort by Tennessee. It feels like a potential end of a mini-era for the Titans, with Derrick Henry's future uncertain and Ryan Tannehill likely getting one final game in a Titans uniform. There's possibility for some magic, but I think either way, this will be a game where the first team to 20 points wins. Dallas Cowboys -13.0 at Washington Commanders This is a huge number and the Cowboys aren't necessarily known for their success on the road. But the Commanders are 0-6 against the spread at home this season. They have nothing to play for this week, whereas Dallas has an NFC East title on the line. Dallas had a controversial win over the Lions last week, but it shouldn't have even been that close if the Cowboys hadn't fumbled on the goal line in the first half and had just run the ball on their final drive of the game. I think they come out firing against Washington to end the season on a high note heading into the postseason, where they'll inevitably choke. But for now, they'll help us win some money in Week 18. Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers Over 45.0 I would've never imagined saying this in the first half of the season, but these two offenses are humming right now. It feels as if Justin Fields may be playing his way into being brought back for another season as opposed to Chicago turning toward the draft to try to find their franchise quarterback. Meanwhile, Jordan Love is playing great football in his own right and is on the cusp of leading the Packers to a playoff berth with a win on Sunday. I actually expect this game to be one of the more exciting games of the week, and I'm on the over. Both these young quarterbacks have different reasons to put up numbers, and I think they get it done for us. Buffalo Bills -2.5 at Miami Dolphins A lot of people thought the Bills were dead as a playoff contender just a few short weeks ago, but they've been resurrected for whatever reason over the final stretch of the regular season. A win on Sunday and they win the AFC East. A loss and they could potentially miss the playoffs altogether. Fortunately for them, they actually match up well with the division leading Dolphins, who they already dominated by 28 points earlier this season. As a matter of fact, Buffalo has won 12 of their last 14 meetings with Miami, many of them by way more than 2.5 points. For those reasons, I'm taking Buffalo to win and cover in the regular season's final contest Sunday night to lock up another division title and playoff berth. Lock of the Week: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4.5 at Carolina Panthers I missed bad on both of these teams last week, as I picked them both to cover and both completely underwhelmed. But I'm much more pessimistic about the Panthers, who have absolutely no offensive firepower whatsoever. They couldn't muster a single point against the Jaguars, who had seemed to be handing out points like Oprah in the weeks prior. The Bucs, once again, have one final chance to clinch the NFC South and secure a spot in the postseason. And I think they take advantage of that this time. They should have no problem winning by a touchdown or more. Mike Evans should also be in for a big day, as he tends to play well against Carolina. It feels to me like there's no way the Panthers cover, here which is why I'm selecting it to be our final Lock of the Week of the 2023 season. Thank you for following along with my picks if you did this season, and stay tuned for my regular season performance analysis article coming soon after Week 18 is wrapped up. I'll still be giving out my favorite plays each round of the playoffs, so check back every Thursday from here on out so you know where to put your money in what's sure to be an action packed postseason. Written by Nick Swatson Photo: "NFL Week 3: Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles" by All-Pro Reels is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.
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