Christmas weekend was exactly what we needed to right the ship after a horrendously unlucky betting performance the week before. Our 5-2 run brings us to 57-50-3 on the season. Not bad, but I'd like for it to be better. And that's why I'm giving out seven winners in this penultimate week of regular season football.
As a side note, the Lock of the Week has experienced a bit of a skid and now sits at 10-6 on the season. If we can hit these last two weeks, then a .750 win percentage for the Weekly Lock will be quite an achievement.
Here are my favorite plays for the week.
Houston Texans -4.0 vs. Tennessee Titans There's really not much more to say about this one other than C.J. Stroud is back in the lineup for Houston. The Titans are 1-6 against the spread on the road and they have nothing to play for at this point in the season. The Texans won this matchup on the road a couple weeks ago with Case Keenum starting, so I think they'll win big with their franchise QB back under center. They're still playing for a playoff spot, so we should see their best effort on Sunday. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 vs New Orleans Saints The Bucs can clinch the NFC South with a win over their division rivals this week. They've surprisingly become one of the hottest teams in NFL at this point. And Baker Mayfield is low key becoming one of the best QBs this season statistically, and some think he should even be in the MVP discussion. He's done well enough for Tampa Bay to reportedly want him back next season, and it does seem like he's loved by his teammates. I think the Bucs continue to roll after a blowout win last week to win by more than a field goal this week. Carolina Panthers +7.0 at Jacksonville Jaguars That blowout win by the Buccaneers last week came at the expense of the Jaguars, who have now lost four straight and are playing their worst football of the season. We once thought that the Jags had the AFC South locked up with ease, but they now sit in a three-way tie with the Colts at 8-7. There's a lot of uncertainty around if Trevor Lawrence will be able to play after suffering an injury to his throwing shoulder last week. The Panthers have actually been competitive lately and should keep this game close regardless of who is under center for Jacksonville. I really like Carolina at this high of a number. Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles Over 48.5 Six out of seven home games for Eagles have gone over and their offense got back on track last week against Giants en route to a 33-point performance. However, there has some question marks as we close out the regular season. The Cardinals should find success moving the ball and scoring in this one as well. I mean, the Giants scored 25 and had a chance to win in the final seconds. This could end up resembling Arizona's 45-29 game against San Francisco a couple weeks ago, but maybe a bit more competitive. Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs Under 44.0 This Chiefs offense can't figure anything out right now, and a lot of people are already claiming their dynasty is over. I wouldn't go that far, but I'll admit that it doesn't feel like the same Chiefs team that we've gotten used to seeing the last couple years. On the other side, the Bengals are coming off an 11-point performance where their offense was stymied as well. Seven of Kansas City's eight home games thus far have stayed under the point total, and I expect this one to follow suit. Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 at Denver Broncos The Chargers bounced back after their 63-21 loss to nearly beat the Bills last week. There's tons of drama going on in Denver surrounding the decision to bench Russell Wilson, which could play a factor on Sunday. I can't tell how the players will respond to the situation, but it does feel like a messy scenario in terms of player happiness. Jarrett Stidham will get the start and is winless as a starter in his career, so it's tough to think that his team will cover 3.5 against a team with as much talent as the Chargers have. I think it'll be a close game either way. Lock of the Week: Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings Over 42.5 Both these teams have been scoring and allowing a lot of points in recent weeks. Green Bay's away games have gone over the point total six out of eight times so far. To make matters worse for the Packers, their best corner, Jaire Alexander, is suspended (for the goofiest reason ever) which should mean Justin Jefferson is in for a big day. Jordan Love has been slinging it as well recently so I love the over in this matchup. So much so that I'm making it our Lock of the Week. I hope everyone has a happy New Year and stays safe this New Year's weekend. My only New Year's resolution is to make all my readers as much money as possible in 2024. Hopefully these picks will bring even more joy to your holiday season. Written by Nick Swatson Photo: "NFL Week 3: Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles" by All-Pro Reels is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.
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