NFL Week 16

Last week was an utter disaster for my picks I gave out.  But while I'm willing to take responsibility for any bad advice I produce, I have to admit that there was a lot of bad luck involved in my 1-6 performance on Sunday.

For example, the dropped Hail Mary by Chicago's Darnell Mooney that literally fell right into his lap cost us the over 38.5 in their game against the Browns.  Similarly, a missed 43-yard field goal by Rams kicker Lucas Havrisik in the fourth quarter ended up costing us the over 50.5 in the Rams/Commanders matchup.  The Jaguars were allergic to the end zone against the Ravens on Sunday night, missing two field goals, losing a fumble inside Baltimore's 25-yard line, and egregiously mismanaging an end-of-half situation that prevented them from scoring any points after marching down to the 4-yard line.  (They also had another drive end inside the red zone on their final drive of the game.)

Furthermore, Cincinnati had a pick six called back because of an offsides penalty that would've potentially given them a seven point win and a cover.  However, they ended up going to overtime with the Vikings and on their second drive of OT, drove the ball inside the 10-yard line and kneeled it out to play for a safe field goal.  That prevented a Bengals -3.5 cover.  And while I can't say for sure that this prevented our Lock of the Week from hitting, the injury to Zach Wilson that knocked him out of the game in the 2nd quarter surrendered all hope of the Jets covering 9.5 against the Dolphins.

But on the bright side, I absolutely nailed my prediction of the Bills game, as they annihilated the Cowboys on their home turf.  And that's the pick I'm going to focus on to give me confidence as we roll into Christmas weekend in the NFL.

What a joy you've woken up to, as you can now unwrap the gifts of seven surefire winners to win tons of money so you can finish your Christmas shopping on Christmas Eve.  Let's dive in.

Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans Under 41.5

There's major uncertainty at quarterback for both teams. Will Geno Smith return for Seattle or will Drew Lock still get the nod after his big win last week?  And is Will Levis going to be good to go for the Titans or is it back to Ryan Tannehill?  Either way, the Titans have no offense whatsoever.  Derrick Henry is washed (I have hard feelings toward him currently after contributing to my first round exit in the fantasy playoffs) and never has a hole to run through or breaks any tackles anymore.  Seattle is coming off a good performance against Philly, but the offense didn't really do much until the last drive.  Both teams are coming off games that totaled fewer than 30 points, and I think we're in for another one of those this week.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 40.5

Baker Mayfield was slinging it last week against the Packers, making some throws into windows that were barely cracked open.  Their offense as a whole is playing really well recently, scoring 21-plus in their last three games (including 29 and 34 in their last two).  The Jags can't be worse on offense than they were last week, and they'll take advantage of some of the opportunities that they missed last week.  I got burned by the over in Jacksonville's last game, but that won't happen two weeks in a row.  This game will easily get up into the mid- to high-forties at minimum.

Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins Over 50.0

Tyreek Hill probably back in Miami's offense adds tremendous versatility and will stretch Dallas' defense similar to what happened last week in Buffalo.  But I expect the Cowboys to have a much better offensive output in sunny Miami than they did a week ago.  In fact, they couldn't be much worse.  I think this will be a shootout and turn into one of the most exciting games of the weekend, with each team needing a win to improve their chances of getting the top playoff seed in their respective conferences.

Detroit Lions -3.0 at Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings were very fortunate to keep it close against the Bengals last week with Nick Mullens throwing technically three interceptions in his first game as a starter this season.  Minnesota is thin everywhere on offense and as turnover prone as they've been since Kirk Cousins went down, any mistakes made this week will be extremely costly.  While some people were down on Detroit going into their last game, the Lions bounced back in a major way to pummel the Broncos.  They'll keep that momentum rolling into another domed environment to get a big win over their division rivals and maintain hopes for the overall one seed. 

Las Vegas Raiders +10.0 at Kansas City Chiefs

It's hard to not bet on a team that just won a game by 42 points.  Especially when that time has had a long week to prepare for a Chiefs offense that has been quite subpar this season.  Kansas City didn't look great against the Patriots and still have big questions at receiver outside of Rashee Rice, who has become the clear #1.  I'm just not confident enough to pick the Chiefs to cover 10 points against anyone right now.  The Raiders have given the Chiefs some good games in the recent past, and I think they'll keep it relatively close throughout this one as well.

Baltimore Ravens +5.5 at San Francisco 49ers

5.5 is a huge number for how good this Ravens team is.  Though I think that's a commendation for how good San Francisco is, it's a high enough spread for me to take the bait.  Lamar Jackson is the most dynamic quarterback in the league and he'll be able to escape some of the pressure sent by the edge duo of Nick Bosa and Chase Young.  Both these teams also play a physical ground and pound style that can potentially milk the clock and reduce possessions.  I think the 49ers are a slightly better team but I still expect a close one that could go either way.  People are saying it's a potential Super Bowl preview, and the final game on Christmas night couldn't be a better matchup than what we're in store for.


Lock of the Week: Indianapolis Colts +2.5 at Atlanta Falcons

The Colts are undefeated against teams below .500 this season, and Atlanta comes into this matchup with a 6-8 record and a backup quarterback.  But more importantly for the Colts, Jonathan Taylor is back to join an offense that has been rolling even in his absence.  It feels like they find success on the ground with whoever they put in the backfield.  Indy is still trending up while Atlanta is trending down as the season winds down.  It feels like the wrong team is favored in this one.  It's also hard to bet on a team that just lost to the Panthers, which is why I think Indianapolis wins this one outright to get the Lock of the Week back on the right track..

I hope all the BSSR readers have a Merry Christmas, made even merrier by the seven winners I just gifted all of you.  Stay tuned for an article this weekend where the BSSR college football experts are back to give our predictions on each of the bowl games post Christmas Day.

​Written by Nick Swatson