We were oh so close to a perfect record in Week 14. Our only two misses were Jacksonville +3 at Cleveland and Baltimore to cover 7.5 against the Rams. Tragically, the Jaguars scored a late touchdown that I thought would get us to at least a push in that game. But they decided to go for two and missed it, ending with a four-point deficit. The Ravens struggled a bit more with the Rams than I anticipated, and ended up winning by six points in overtime. That means we lost those two bets by a total of 2.5 points.
Stil, our 5-2 performance on the week brings us to a healthy 51-42-3 record through 14 weeks. We split in the ultra rare Double Lock of the Week to take the Lock of the Week to a very solid 10-4 record on the season.
We'll try to get even further above .500 with the seven picks I'm giving you this week. Let's dive in. Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings The Bengals are on a roll and somehow look even better without Joe Burrow under center. They rolled over the Colts last week in a game that was never really close, and they did it without Ja'Marr Chase getting involved much at all. And trust me, I know, because Ja'Marr is my best player in one of my fantasy leagues. The Vikings managed just 3 points last week against the Raiders and are switching quarterbacks again. To make matters worse, Justin Jefferson got hurt last week in his first game back from IR. He might still play this week, but his productivity will be limited by whoever is throwing him the ball. I think Cincinnati wins big to improve their playoff chances even further heading into the final stretch. Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns Over 38.5 Joe Flacco has come out of nowhere to play great football for the Browns. I mean, am I the only one who assumed Flacco had retired? It's pretty remarkable that it's been so long since he's been a consistent starter and he's stepped in to keep this Browns team in the playoff hunt. Speaking of solid quarterback play, Justin Fields has been much improved since his minor injury as well. Cleveland has been surrendering a lot of points over their last three games and Chicago will be coming in with confidence after a big win over the Lions. I'm not sure who will come out on top and I don't expect a ton of points in this game, but 38.5 seems low to me. I think we'll see these teams combine for somewhere in the mid-forties. New York Giants +6.0 at New Orleans Saints I'm all in on the Italian Stallion Tommy DeVito, who has brought a surge of positivity to the entire city of New York with his play in recent weeks. Who would've thought that the Giants would get better after Daniel Jones went down? And there's no better person to restore the Giants to their former glory than an Italian American with a 1930s mafia boss as his agent who still lives with his parents. And that's why I'm taking the Giants to cover against the Saints on Sunday. Six points is a fairly big number for an NFL game and New Orleans is only 2-10-1 against the spread this season by my calculations. I expect this to be a close game decided by around a field goal. Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Rams Over 50.5 The Commanders can't stop anyone. They've allowed 45 points in each of their last two games. And it won't get much easier this week, as Los Angeles has scored over 30 points in their last three games. And they might go even higher this week. They impressively put up 31 in an overtime loss to the Ravens, and the offense seems to be humming. The Rams haven't been great defensively, and Washington's offense might play a bit better coming off some rest after a bye. With all that said, I love the over in this one. Buffalo Bills -2.0 vs. Dallas Cowboys Listen, I don't love picking against the Cowboys right now after what they've done to their last four opponents. But their hot streak has to end eventually. And this seems like the week for it to happen, as all three of their losses so far have come on the road. And there's not much worse of a place to travel to than Buffalo in December, especially for a dome team in sunny Texas. Many people have said the Bills are dead, but they gained some momentum from last week's win over the Chiefs (despite what you think of the officiating at the end). They're in must win territory now as they currently find themselves outside of the playoff picture as the season winds down. That's why I'm picking the Bills to band together like a group of militants and take the fight to America's team with no regard for peace or diplomacy. Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars Over 42.5 The Ravens seem to be scoring at will right now and are one of the hottest offenses in the NFL. As a Jaguars bettor last week, seeing the Jags have so many busted coverages and injuries on defense shows me that I can't trust them at all against Baltimore. It's possible that the Ravens have multiple 40-plus yard touchdowns on Sunday night. Jacksonville should be able to put up some points on their end as well with a pretty much healthy offensive unit. I think this turns into another shootout as the Jags try to stop their losing streak against AFC North teams, who they've now faced in three straight weeks. It should be a fun one on Sunday Night Football. Lock of the Week: New York Jets +9.5 at Miami Dolphins After watching Miami's performance against the Titans on Monday night, I'm fully convinced that Tyreek Hill should be the league MVP this season. They were a completely different team with and without Hill on the field. With that said, Mike McDaniel says he doesn't want to rush Tyreek back onto the field, and I'd imagine they'll be very conservative with him to get him 100 percent for postseason action. Assuming Hill will be playing in a limited capacity and seeing what Tennessee's defense did to the Dolphins, I get the feeling that the Jets' defense will cause even more trouble for Miami. Zach Wilson honestly looked really good in the 30-point second half performance New York had last week, and I think that momentum will carry over to make this a one-score game by the end. Since this is the Lock of the Week, I'm mostly just betting on the fact that Tyreek Hill isn't on the field every single play. We'll see if that pays off. Written by Nick Swatson Photo: "NFL Week 3: Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles" by All-Pro Reels is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |