A bit of a down week for us last weekend, as we wrapped up on Sunday night with a 3-4 record after the Packers surprisingly put up 27 points on the Chiefs. That brings our season record to a still okay 46-40-3. I'd like to create a bit more separation in the win/loss column here in Week 14.
The good news is that the Lock of the Week was never in doubt last week. Unless you consider needing two blocked punts, a missed extra point, and a TD on the second possession of overtime being "in doubt." I certainly don't.
As a quick side note before I roll through my picks for this week, I'm not betting on a game involving the Texans again this season. I think I've guessed wrong almost every time I've bet either on or against them, or on their overs or unders. I'll find out if that's true when I do my post-season betting analysis, but I'm going to avoid them like the plague for the last five weeks of the NFL season.
With that said, here are my seven favorite plays for Week 14: Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals Over 44.5 I was incredibly impressed with Jake Browning and the Bengals' offense Monday night in their win over the Jaguars. Which was disappointing at the time because I hurriedly bet on the under just a few minutes before kickoff. But we can't forget that even if Browning just plays halfway decent, Cincinnati's offense is so talented that big plays are still liable to occur. Couple that with Indy's offensive success this season (they've only failed to reach 20 points once all year in a Germany game against the Patriots) and we're looking at another duel in the high-twenties or thirties. It's probably going to be close one, so I'm not going to pick a winner. But I'd venture a guess of around a 30-27 final score one way or the other. Jacksonville Jaguars +3.0 at Cleveland Browns Speaking of the Jaguars, I think this is a fantastic number to bet on them leading up to a game against a team with no QB who's lost by 17 in back-to-back weeks. Now, there are QB concerns in Jacksonville as well, as Trevor Lawrence was knocked out of Monday night's game. But he's been in this situation a couple times this season and has always been able to fight through the pain and perform when it matters. He was a limited participant in Thursday's practice, which gives me enough optimism to assume he'll be on the field on Sunday afternoon. And if he is, the Jags will win this one outright. Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers Under 44.0 I have a little bit of skepticism about this bet because it almost feels too obvious. I mean, the Chargers' offense has been pathetic the last few weeks. They scored 10 points on the Ravens and 6 points on the Patriots (though still managed to win the latter of the two). While Denver has shown flashes, they haven't necessarily been seen as an offensive powerhouse this season either. A push for a wild card spot is on the line in this divisional matchup and I don't see very many points being scored from either side. It feels like a 20-16 type game, which is why I'm taking the under. Dallas Cowboys -3.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles I have a very hard time trying to go against the Cowboys right now, and I think it's for good reason. They were challenged a bit by Seattle last week. But aside from that, they've been dominating teams since their close loss to the Eagles a month ago. This time, with Philadelphia traveling to Dallas and with Jalen Hurts obviously banged up, this feels like a no brainer. Especially when you look at what the 49ers just did to the Eagles in their own stadium. Dallas has a comparable offense to San Francisco, but with better QB play. And their pass rush will similarly pressure Philly when the Cowboys get out to a lead. I think Dallas could end up winning by a touchdown or more, if things start to snowball. Tennessee Titans +13.0 at Miami Dolphins I've watched enough Titans games against heavy favorites over the last few years to know that when you think Tennessee has no shot whatsoever, that's when Mike Vrabel puts together his best game. That's especially apparent in primetime, and it's what I think will happen when they take on one of the hottest offenses in football. The Titans are going to try to eat up the clock and grind out drives, and I think they'll actually keep this fairly close through the entirety of the game. I'd give them an almost zero chance of actually winning, but I like Tennessee to lose by single digits. FWIW, there's a not zero percent chance that the Dolphins put up 70 again and cover by 50 points. But I think my initial prediction is much more likely. Lock(s) of the Week: Baltimore Ravens -7.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams, AND Over 40.0 In their only two games against NFC West teams so far this season, the Ravens have won by a combined score of 68-27. Baltimore feels like the best team in the AFC right now and I've seen them roll through enough opponents to feel extremely comfortable taking them as just over a touchdown favorites. And as you can see, in what is going to be our first (and likely last) of the season, this is an ultra rare Double Lock of the Week. That's because this point total is about 10 points too low, and we could easily see a total in the mid- to high-fifties. Give me the Ravens and the over to get two games back for the Lock of the Week. (This will also put us back at a LOTW pick total that equals the number of weeks so far this season, since I forgot to designate a LOTW one week a while back.) Written by Nick Swatson. Photo: "NFL Week 3: Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles" by All-Pro Reels is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.
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