The NFL season is officially back, which means it's time for me to give all my loyal BSSR readers the keys to winning money during each week of the season.
I performed well last season and finished the year with a 69-49 record for a 58.5 percent hit rate. Furthermore, my weekly Locks went 13-5 on the year for a 72.2 percent win percentage. So whether you're new to the site or have been following my picks for the last three years, you should be confident that I won't lead you astray over the course of the 2023 NFL season. Let's go ahead and get into the picks you should make to start the season off with a bang. Arizona Cardinals at Washington Commanders Over 38.0
Yes, the Cardinals are an absolute dumpster fire of an organization right now. Their franchise quarterback is on the PUP, their head coach is the most awkward speech giver in the NFL, and from an outsider's perspective, there's almost no chance that they aren't tanking for the #1 pick in next year's draft. Which is why they might give up 30 points to Sam Howell and the Commanders in Week 1. And while Washington minus the points might be a solid side play here, I actually like the over more due to how low the number is. Additionally, I think Josh Dobbs has a lot of talent and could mess around and lead a couple touchdown drives himself against a tough Commanders defense.
We've heard a lot from Ron Rivera about how good Sam Howell is, and Howell did have a nice showing in his lone start in last season's finale. We'll hope he's as good as Rivera claims, and Washington has the talent around him to capitalize with lots of points under a solid QB. Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots Under 45.0 Here's an interesting stat: Super Bowl losers are 4-19 against the spread in their ensuing season openers over the last 23 seasons. Now, you might be wondering why I'm not taking the Patriots plus the points, and that's because I have very little faith in this year's Patriots team to have much success against a very good Eagles defense. However, I also think the Eagles will get out to somewhat of a slow start themselves and play a tight game in Foxboro in Week 1. Will the Patriots win? Probably not. But they will slow the game down, try to run the ball, and play hard-nosed defense, Bill Belichick style. We'll call in a 20-16 final in Philly's favor. Denver Broncos -3.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders Russell Wilson receives a lot of hate, and for good reason. I can't help but laugh at pretty much everything that guy does. But it seems as though he finally has a head coach who's going to nip his extra nonsense in the bud. The Broncos were plain bad last season in Wilson's first run in Denver, but I think the coaching staff had a lot to do with that. Wilson is just a couple years removed from MVP-caliber play, and I think Sean Payton's leadership will bring back the old Russell Wilson. The defense is solid and there are weapons on the offense, and this feels like it could be very similar to a lot of the teams Sean Payton coached in New Orleans. I don't have very high expectations for the Raiders, as I've never been a much of a believer in Jimmy Garoppolo. I think the Broncos open up this season with a touchdown-plus win over their division rivals and have a much better year in 2023 than they did in 2022. Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants Over 46.0 Does anyone remember what the Cowboys did the last time they played on Sunday Night Football? I do. They put up 54 points in an onslaught of the Colts. Now, obviously the Giants are a much different team than last year's Colts. And while I definitely don't expect New York's defense to allow anywhere close to 54 points, they should be able to find success against Dallas' defense. The Giants are at full strength and I like what I saw from them in the final part of last season. I'm assuming they keep trending upward and I can see this game being somewhat of a shootout in primetime. I'm predicting a 27-24 game at minimum with the potential for a lot more points to be scored than that. New York Jets +2.5 vs. Buffalo Bills The Bills might still be the best team in the AFC East, but don't tell Aaron Rodgers and the Jets that. I like the Bills as much of the next guy, but I can't turn down this Jets team as home underdogs on a Monday night. New York added so much in the offseason that it's really not even the same team. Rodgers appears to be happier than he's been in a long time and he already has great rapport with all of his pass catchers in the Big Apple. This should be the most anticipated game of the week and I'm hopping on board the Jets as they soar to victory to kick off their run to the playoffs. Lock of the Week: Jacksonville Jaguars -5.0 at Indianapolis Colts Here we go fellas, the first Lock of the Week of the 2023 season. It's somewhat of a risky play to bet on a heavy road favorite, but the Jaguars have had Indy's number in recent seasons. And this will be potentially be Jacksonville's best team in a long time. I love Trevor Lawrence and the Jags are returning just about everyone on their division-winning team from last season, so they shouldn't miss a beat heading into year two under Doug Pederson. The Colts are the third youngest team in the league and while Anthony Richardson showed some really good flashes in the preseason, we have to keep in mind that he hasn't even started 20 games at quarterback in his entire football career. He'll likely make a few costly mistakes, allowing the Jaguars to wreck Indianapolis yet again. I think they win by double digits to get the Lock of the Week off to a 1-0 start in 2023. Sound off in the comments about your most and least favorite plays this week and what you think I got right or wrong for Week 1. Written by Nick Swatson Photo: "NFL Week 3: Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles" by All-Pro Reels is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.
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