 Thanksgiving weekend was good to us, finishing 5-2 for Week 12 with an unlucky break in the Texans/Jags game that would've surely allowed the over to hit if the game tying field goal hadn't hit the crossbar to prevent overtime. Unfortunately, the Lock of the Week took its first hit in a while, but we'll get it back on track this time around. We're up to 43-36-3 on the season and I still can't complain about the 8-3 record for the Lock of the Week. Let's take a look at the seven bets I'm on for this weekend in the NFL. Los Angeles Chargers -5.5 at New England Patriots The Chargers have been anything but great in their up and down season, but this has to be a get right game for them going up against a team who essentially has no quarterback. Los Angeles is at least losing to decent teams, whereas New England just lost to the Giants with a third-string quarterback who still lives with his parents. Los Angeles is going to feast on Sunday to end their three game losing streak in convincing fashion, winning by double digits.
Denver Broncos +3.0 at Houston Texans AND Over 47.5 I couldn't decide which of these bets I liked more for this game, so I just decided to go with both. As I mentioned above, we got burned on the over in a Texans game last week, which was very unlucky to not hit for a variety of reasons. But C.J. Stroud is impressive and he has that offense humming. But there are few teams hotter than the Denver Broncos right now, which is why I think this game turns into a shootout. And I think Russell Wilson and the Broncos will get the better of the rookie QB's team this time around to continue their win streak and put Houston in a bit more precarious of a position in the playoff picture. New York Jets +2.0 vs. Atlanta Falcons I understand that it's really hard to bet on the Jets right now, but with news of Aaron Rodgers' potential return in the next few weeks, it feels like they're going to find a way to keep their playoff hopes alive. Whether it be the script writers or the universe coming together to paint the picture, it really feels to me like Rodgers is going to make a triumphant return to the field and lead this Jets team to the playoffs. I feel crazy just typing that, but I've seen enough storybook endings in sports to know that the most dramatic result often times happens. Especially after how his Green Bay career ended, when he wasn't able to get the job done in a similar situation. Give me the Jets to win outright. San Francisco 49ers -3.0 at Philadelphia Eagles The Eagles have kept finding ways to win on their 10-1 run thus far, but they've also gotten a bit lucky down the stretch of games. I think the 49ers put that luck to an emphatic end when they go into Philadelphia and knock off the Eagles. The last time the Niners were three-point road favorites, I bet against them and pitifully watched them stomp the Jaguars 34-3. I'll be on the right side of the bet this time around as San Francisco avenges their NFC Championship defeat from last postseason. Side note: we cannot let Jalen Hurts win the MVP this season. I don't think anyone outside of Philadelphia thinks he should be the frontrunner. Granted, there isn't really anyone who's standing out as a clear favorite at this point, but surely someone with a more impressive stat line will win out, right? I mean, most of Hurts' rushing touchdowns are 1-yard plays where he gets pushed across the goal line from behind. He would be a bizarre winner if nothing else. Kansas Chiefs at Green Packers Under 42.5 The Chiefs burned me on the Lock of the Week last week, but I'm betting against them in a way again here. And that's because their offense hasn't performed that well in primetime this season. Now, I think they'll still be able to beat the Packers, but I don't expect to see a lot of points scored from either team in this one. I'm taking the under and will coast to victory when Kansas City wins something like 17-13. Lock of the Week: Indianapolis Colts -1.0 at Tennessee Titans The Titans haven't won back-to-back games all season, and I don't think they start this week against their arch division rivals. Tennessee's offense looked so bad even against one of the worst defenses in the league, and I just don't see them scoring enough points to keep up with one of the more consistently efficient offenses in the NFL so far. Jonathan Taylor not playing is a bit concerning, as Tennessee's defense will have to keep them in this game. But I'm still confident that Indy wins and covers to stay right in the mix for the wild card race. And more importantly, to get us back on track with the Lock of the Week. Written by Nick Swatson Photo: "NFL Week 3: Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles" by All-Pro Reels is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.
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