NFL Week 13

I wouldn't normally celebrate a 3-3 week of betting, but considering it followed a 1-6 performance, I certainly won't complain about how last week went for us.  I'll keep this intro short and just say that we're 37-43 on the season, but I'm confident we'll get back on the winning side of things here in week 13.  Keep fading my Fades of the Week, as you'd be 9-3 now this season if you've done so.

​Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals Over 50.0

We have Justin Herbert vs. Joe Burrow.  Austin Ekeler on one side and Joe Mixon on the other.  Receiving corps featuring Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins just to name a few.  This Bengals offense has been on fire in recent weeks, scoring 30-plus in five of their last six contests.  L.A.'s offense has been somewhat hit or miss this season (more miss than hit, to be honest), but they showed what they can do when they're on in their 41-point outburst against Pittsburgh a couple weeks ago.  Both these teams are still vying for their respective division titles and these two QBs will be looking to outshine their draft class peer.  Points will be raining down in Cincinnati on Sunday.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions Under 46.5

I don't know who decided that the Lions should get an eternal Thanksgiving day game, but having to watch the Lions play every season on that day is something I am certainly not thankful for.  Detroit is absolutely abysmal, and to make matters worse for their offense, D'Andre Swift will be out with a shoulder injury.  Swift is one of the only players of quality on the entire team, and he's single handedly supported their offensive production at times this year.  Minnesota's offense has been solid in recent weeks, but I'm not even thinking about them with this bet.  They could score 40 and I'd be confident that this under would still hit based on Detroit's offensive ineptitude.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks Under 45.5

I have no idea why, but Seattle has been horrible on offense this season.  For whatever reason, something isn't clicking with Russell Wilson yet, and I'm not confident that they'll turn it around against a stout Niners defense.  I mean, D.K. Metcalf had a single reception last week, and it happened on the final drive of the game.  It makes me a bit nervous that San Francisco has scored 30 in five straight games, but I think it'll be tougher for them in Seattle.  I expect a grueling, low-scoring game that the 49ers will probably win, but the under should hit for sure.

Denver Broncos +9.0 at Kansas City Chiefs

Listen, I know the Chiefs looked great against the Raiders two weeks ago and got the job done against the Cowboys last week, but there's no way I can bet on them as 9-point favorites against a sneaky good Broncos team.  Kansas City has been bad against the spread despite compiling a lot of wins the past couple seasons, so there's no part of me that wants to side with them here.  Denver has won three of their last four and is still just one game off the lead in the AFC West, so they'll be ready to play against their current division leader.  Even on the road, I expect the Broncos to keep it relatively close and end up within one score of the Chiefs.

New England Patriots +3.0 at Buffalo Bills

​No one can tell me that the Patriots aren't one of the best teams in the league right now.  They've won six in a row and all but one of them were blowouts.  I get that they're going on the road and that Bills Mafia will be ultra live on Monday night, but I absolutely love taking the Pats as underdogs in this matchup.  Buffalo hasn't looked very impressive for most of the season and this is a monumental game for both teams as the season enters its final stretch.  Bill Belichick is just like Nick Saban: you can't bet against either when the games matter the most.  (I'm writing this as Alabama is torching Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.)  Give me the Patriots and bring me my money!

Fade of the Week: Miami Dolphins -6.0 vs. New York Giants

The Dolphins have done nothing but win in recent weeks and they're still one of the most underrated teams at the moment in my opinion.  They've defeated the Texans, Ravens, Jets, and Panthers in the last four games and none have been closer than 7 points.  I'll give some credit to the Giants, who have notched a few wins of their own recently, but all of those wins have come at home.  They'll be going on the road this time and I don't see them having much of a chance at all to win this game.  Tua Tagovailoa has been extremely efficient lately and Miami has been progressively putting more and more points on the board each week.  I'll quickly apologize to Dolphins fans for placing my Fade of the Week curse on their team when things finally seem to be turning around for them.  I'll be pulling for the Dolphins as hard as anyone this week, though.


Written by Nick Swatson