I'm fired up about what I just witnessed in the Chiefs/Eagles matchup. We had the over 44.5, and so I was rooting for both offenses rather than one team over the other. And boy, was that an agonizing aspect to cheer for.
The Chiefs have to have the worst receiving corps in the NFL. Marquez Valdes-Scantling dropped a wide open deep touchdown pass on the final drive that would have given us 45 total points and a win. But it went through his hands and fell to the turf, a result that Mahomes couldn't dig himself out of. Though not for lack of effort on his part, as his fourth down pass went through the arms of Justin Watson to put a nail in the game's coffin.
This was after Patrick Mahomes threw an interception in the end zone in the first half and Travis Kelce fumbled the ball inside Philly's 10-yard line in the fourth quarter. If any of those things don't happen, the over likely hits.
I don't know how the Chiefs have won as many games as they have with their pathetic group of receivers. They're still up two games in their division despite leading the league in dropped passes. I'm not sure that I can bet on the Chiefs with how bad it's gotten. On a completely unrelated topic, this leads me into something that I've never done in my history of giving out picks on the internet. And that is that I'm giving myself a win from the bet I had on the Seahawks Sunday, who lost by a point despite leading for the entirety of the game. However, while I had them at -1 when I wrote the article on Friday, they ended up as two-point underdogs by Sunday morning, which is the number I actually bet them. Due to their one-point loss, I'm claiming that bet as a win to offset the horrible luck we had on Monday night. After all that is said, we ended up 4-3 on the week for a total cumulative record of 38-34-3. But I have to give props to the Lock of the Week, which hit yet again and now sits at 8-2 on the season. We'll try to keep it rolling during Thanksgiving weekend with these seven picks I'm giving for Week 12. Green Bay Packers +7.5 at Detroit Lions The Lions are a brand new team this year, so it's not fair to compare them to years past. Buuuuuut they have lost their last six Thanksgiving Day games. Now, I think they'll end that streak this week, but they were someone fortunate to fend off the Bears last week and I don't think the Packers are getting the respect they deserve. Jordan Love is quietly putting together a nice season and Green Bay is coming off a nice win against the Chargers. I think this will be a closer game than some people expect between the division rivals, with Detroit holding on to win by around a field goal. Miami Dolphins -10.0 at New York Jets The Jets have finally benched Zach Wilson - a move that has come about 10 weeks late for most Jets fans. And if Wilson was still the best quarterback on the roster in the minds of New York's coaching staff, then imagine how bad the backups are. That's why I'm siding with the Dolphins despite a big number for them on the road. There's no chance the Jets keep this one close regardless of how good their defense plays. The Dolphins didn't play great in their 7-point win against the Raiders last week, so I think they'll bounce back to win big in MetLife Stadium on Friday. Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans Over 48.5 The Texans have become one of the most surprising teams in the league this season, and it starts with how good their offense has been. C.J. Stroud isn't just in the conversation for Rookie of the Year, but also league MVP. Additionally, Jacksonville's offense bounced back in a major way to rout the Titans last week to give a boost of confidence back to Trevor Lawrence and his offensive unit. Houston already put up 37 on the Jags earlier in the year, and the Jaguars will be seeking revenge on the road. Interestingly, Trevor Lawrence seems to play better on the road this season. Take the over and add an anytime TD scorer prop for Travis Etienne to add some extra value to your bet on this game. Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5 at Cincinnati Bengals Remember how the Raiders went out and demolished the Giants right after firing Josh McDaniels a few weeks ago? I think that's how this game will go for the Steelers after finally getting rid of offensive coordinator Matt Canada. Their offense was brutally bad during his reign. Though to be fair, Kenny Pickett doesn't seem like the best QB to work with. But it feels like that whole team will come out reenergized knowing that they'll get a fresh face calling plays on Sunday against a division rival with a backup quarterback. And there's no way Mike Tomlin lets his team lose to a backup QB in back-to-back weeks. Steelers will win by a touchdown or more. Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans Under 36.5 Speaking of the Titans, they are downright abysmal on offense right now. And one of the few teams who might be in even worse shape is Carolina. Both these coaches are on the hot seat, and it's easy to see why when you look at their offensive outputs. The Panthers haven't topped 15 points in any of their last four games, and Tennessee has been held to 16 or fewer in their last three. It will be a battle between two rookie quarterbacks, each of whom have experience their fair share of struggles so far in their young careers. I expect the defenses to play well and limit scoring opportunities, leading to why I'm taking the under in this one. Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles Over 48.5 The Bills finally looked like the Bills we expected to see in the second half of last week's game against a stout Jets defense. I expect that boost of confidence to roll over into a big matchup with the Eagles, who benefitted from several mistakes by Kansas City on Monday night. I'm not sure if Buffalo will be able to pull off the upset, but I do expect a fairly high scoring game between teams with two of the craziest fan bases in sports. I like a final score somewhere around 27-24, which would put us safely above the point total. Lock of the Week: Kansas City Chiefs 2nd Half TT Under 12.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders Kansas City is the worst second half scoring team in the league at 5.3 points per game in the second halves of their 10 games so far. Factor that in with their receivers' aversions toward catching passes, and this bet is a no brainer - especially against a solid defense with a game wrecker like Maxx Crosby. This might be the Lock of the Year. Written by Nick Swatson Photo: "NFL Week 3: Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles" by All-Pro Reels is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.
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