NFL Week 12

It was another absolutely disastrous performance for us in week 11, as we had our second 1-6 week of the season.  Just unexplainably bad.  I apologize for anyone who has followed my advice this season, but the good news for my readers is that if you've faded each of my weekly fades, you'd be 8-3 on the season (which is extremely comical given that that is still the bet I'm most confident in each week).

We're now 34-40 on the season, which honestly hurts to type.  Due to the slightly fewer number of games on deck for Sunday and Monday given the three Thanksgiving matchups, I'll only be giving out six picks this week.  Maybe that will turn our luck around somewhat if nothing else.

Miami Dolphins +2.0 vs. Carolina Panthers

The Dolphins have been flying under the radar lately and have now strung together three straight victories.  Tua Tagovailoa has been one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the past few weeks, and while Cam Newton has provided a bit of a spark to the Panthers, they have just been flat out bad since around week 3 of the season.  I think Miami will defend their home field and get their fourth straight win outright, but I'll take them against the spread just to be sure.

Indianapolis Colts +3.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I really think there's a strong argument that the Colts should be favored here based on these two teams' past few weeks.  Indianapolis has looked unstoppable on offense behind Jonathan Taylor, who just had FIVE total touchdowns last week alone.  The Colts are one of the hottest teams in the league right now taking on a Buccaneers team at home that dropped two in a row before beating the lowly Giants.  Tampa Bay is the more talented team for sure, but they just haven't looked great for most of the season.  I'm not saying the Colts will win this one, but I think there's a great chance that the game is decided by a field goal or less one way or the other.

​Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots Under 43.5

Here we have an offense that is missing nearly their entire units of production going up against a defense that has been absolutely dominant in recent weeks.  New England has allowed only 13 points in their last three games against comparable offenses to what the Titans will be without Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, and Julio Jones.  I think the Patriots definitely win, and could win big, but there's going to be no offense generated from Tennessee, which makes the under the most desirable bet for me.

Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers Over 46.5

I was a little hesitant on this one just because of how the Rams offense has struggled the past few games, but Green Bay's defense looked very exploitable last week and there's no doubt that Matthew Stafford and crew will turn it around eventually.  With Stafford and Aaron Rodgers on opposite sides of the same playing field, it's impossible for me to not take the over, which is quite low for this matchup.  I'm hoping this game will be a shootout between two of the NFC's top contenders.

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens Under 47.0

Cleveland has topped 17 points just once since their 42-47 loss to the Chargers, which was in week 5.  Their offense has been absolutely inept at scoring points for the last half of the season and it won't be any easier on the road against a tough Ravens defense.  And Baltimore hasn't exactly been the pinnacle of offensive efficiency either, seemingly being more of a hit or miss team week in and week out.  Both of these teams are run oriented which will shorten the game and potentially limit big plays, making the under a delectable bet for me on Sunday night.

​Fade of the Week: Houston Texans -2.5 vs. New York Jets

It's Tyrod Taylor szn again boys.  He let us down a couple weeks ago in his return game but after seeing him tear up a Titans defense last week that was playing out of their mind prior to that game, I'm putting my money on him again this week.  There's no doubt in my mind that his Texans will get the job done against the miserable Jets, who haven't come particularly close to winning a game on the road this season.  This is as confident of a pick as I'll have this season, which means you should put all your money on the Jets.


Written by Nick Swatson