NFL Week 11
I would simply describe our Week 10 betting outing as frustrating. We ended at 3-4 for the week, but two of our losses came at the hands of the Falcons, who couldn't score more than 3 points in a game where they allowed 43 out of a 53.5 point total, and the Titans, who allowed a backdoor cover with just over a minute remaining (and sealed the deal by stopping the ensuing two-point conversion).
Our season record is now 33-34, and the Fade of the Week has dropped to 3-7, meaning you'd be 7-3 if you would have faded that pick each week. So do yourself a favor and fade that pick.
Let's get back to a winning record in 2021 with a successful stretch in Week 11 of the NFL season.
Green Bay Packers -1.0 at Minnesota Vikings
I mean, this bet is just a no brainer right? Excluding week 1, which can be written off as an anomaly, Green Bay's only loss is a 6-point defeat to the Chiefs with Jordan Love playing quarterback. And everyone who watched that game knows that the Packers would have won with ease had Aaron Rodgers been playing. While the offense didn't look extremely smooth in Rodgers' return last week, their defense looked incredible while pitching a shutout against the Seahawks. It's hard to imagine Rodgers and the Packer offense having another letdown performance in back-to-back weeks, so I expect them to come alive against a mediocre Vikings team who's known for losing close games. Give me the Packers for sure.
Carolina Panthers -3.5 vs. Washington Football Team
Cam Newton is baaaaaack! And he'll be starting at quarterback for the first time in a Panthers uniform in Carolina since he departed the organization two years ago. I'm not a Panthers fan, but I have to imagine that their fan base loves Cam for all the excitement and success he brought to the franchise in his first stint with the team. Carolina is going to be rocking on Sunday and Newton and the rest of the team will be fired up and confident following their thrashing of the Cardinals last week. My biggest concern is that Ron Rivera will be able to draw up a game plan to contain his former quarterback, but the absence of Chase Young for Washington will definitely negatively impact their defense. I have to give props to the Football Team for their win over the Bucs a week ago, but they won't be as fortunate this Sunday.
New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles Over 42.5
This point total just seems too low to me. The Eagles have scored over 20 points in all but one game this season and have put up 30 and 44 in two of their last three games. The Saints are missing a few key guys on defensive line, which should make things easier for Philly's ground game. Even with a backup quarterback and no Alvin Kamara, I have to imagine that New Orleans will also be able to put up 20+ points on a mediocre Eagle defense. I honestly like the Eagles at home here to win and cover, but I prefer betting the over and not worrying about the end result in this case.
Dallas Cowboys +2.5 at Kansas City Chiefs
Let's be honest, if the Chiefs wouldn't have dog walked the Raiders last week, the Cowboys would be the favorites here (or should be, at least). Yes, Patrick Mahomes and the Chief offense looked like they returned to their former selves last Sunday night. But I can't let that one performance override their season-long struggles up until that point. On the other hand, the Cowboys have played very well in all but one game, really, and are coming off a 43-3 blowout against the Falcons. I think the sport books have placed too much into one game on Kansas City's end and that Dallas is honestly the better team at this point in the season. Maybe I'm wrong and the Chiefs have flipped the switch and are all the way back. But I'm hoping that they'll continue to struggle for at least one more week.
Seattle Seahawks +1.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals
This is essentially a bet that Kyler Murray won't play for the third straight game. DeAndre Hopkins has already been ruled out, so it would make complete sense for Arizona to hold Murray out for one more game and allow both stars to rest for two more weeks with a bye upcoming. We saw what happened last week when Kyler was out: the Cards couldn't get anything going on offense against a Panthers team that had been simply bad for most of the season. While the Seahawks didn't do anything to impress in their Week 10 game (in fact, they didn't even score a point), it's very hard to bet against Russell Wilson at home as underdogs against just about anyone. This would be a Fade of the Week candidate if I knew for a fact that Kyler wouldn't play, but because his status is still uncertain, I won't put that negative energy on this bet.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers Under 47.5
Is it just me or does it feel like every game the Steelers play results in fewer than 40 total points scored? A combination of a poor offense and a stellar defense often creates low-scoring affairs for Pittsburgh. Not to mention the fact that Ben Roethlisberger could potentially miss his second straight game because of the COVID protocol. The Steelers only managed 16 points in 70 minutes of action against the LIONS last week with Mason Rudolph at quarterback, and it's hard to imagine them finding more success than that against the Chargers is Rudolph is the guy again. The Chargers have been unimpressive in their own right for much of the season, scoring no more than 27 in their last four. I expect a low-scoring affair with or without Big Ben in Sunday night's primetime matchup.
Fade of the Week: New York Giants +10.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Check out this stat, provided to me by my arch nemesis and fellow BSSR writer, Alex Hill: in Tom Brady's last eleven 8pm EST games, his team has failed to cover the spread as favorites. That's right, ELEVEN games in a row where Brady's team hasn't covered. And it's not like those games have been against great teams either. Just going through the list, you can find the Eagles, Football Team, Giants, Bears, and Texans to name a few. Has Tom Brady been hit by the primetime curse? I don't know, but that's all I need to see to ride with the Giants to cover for my Fade of the Week. Though I can't help but wonder what will happen when Tom Brady's primetime curse meets my Fade of the Week curse. It's like an unstoppable force and an immovable object. All I know is this: one curse will be lifted on Monday night, and we all know which one that will be.
Written by Nick Swatson
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