I gotta be honest, I wasn't super confident in any of the picks I gave out yesterday. So much so that I forgot to even designate a Lock of the Week. Some of the bets I placed ended up being so far off that I just had to laugh - such as the Under 40 in the Bucs/Texans matchup ending with a score of 39-37. But before an arrow is fired through a bullseye of a target, it must first be drawn back by the archer. And after our draw back week in Week 9, we'll smash through the target in Week 10.
Our record on the season is still above .500 at 30-29-2, and the Lock of the Week remains 6-2. It's time to bounce back with these seven picks I'm giving out for free today. Jacksonville Jaguars +3.0 vs. San Francisco 49ers
I think both these teams are very good and could make deep playoff runs this year. And while I like San Francisco better long term, they've struggled in recent weeks. They've lost three in a row, with two of those coming on the road against Minnesota and Cleveland. Traveling to Jacksonville to take on the Jags, who have won five straight, isn't exactly an ideal "get right" game. The 49ers may well be able to secure a win, but I can't imagine it being by many points at all. I think we're looking at a worst case scenario push here, which is why I like the Jags as 3-point underdogs at home.
Los Angeles Chargers +3.0 vs. Detroit Lions Similarly, I like the Chargers as 3-point home underdogs as well. Justin Herbert and the offense seem to finally be rolling after they put up an impressive 27 points against an elite Jets defense. The defense is playing well too as of late, though their last two games have been against teams with middling offensive success. The Lions will be a tougher test, but Detroit was blown out by 32 points in their last road game. I think these teams are very evenly matched and that the outcome will likely be decided by a field goal. This puts this bet into the worst-case scenario push category as well. Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers Under 39.0 Pittsburgh's defense is playing elite right now on the back of T.J. Watt, and Green Bay hasn't scored more than 20 points in a game since Week 2. Jordan Love played pretty well against the Rams last week, but it'll be much tougher for him against a fierce Steelers defense who has had 10 days to prepare. I'm not a believer in Kenny Pickett or Pittsburgh's offense at all, so I'm fully expecting a low-scoring game where the first to 20 points would win. But I'm not sure if either team will reach that number, which is why I like the under. Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals Over 43.0 The return of Kyler Murray will certainly spark Arizona's offense, which had just 58 passing yards against Cleveland last week. But he also might turn the ball over a couple times as he returns to game form. Atlanta's defense is opportunistic and they forced three fumbles against Minnesota, but couldn't capitalize on them in the red zone. Arizona has weaker defense from which the Falcons should benefit, and they'll hopefully finally get their star players involved when they get close to the end zone. I think there will be some fireworks in this game and we'll see a game that reaches at least the 50-point mark. New York Jets at Las Vegas Raiders Under 37.0 This is really a must win type of game for the Jets but I just have no faith in their offense under Zach Wilson. They can't even get close to the red zone against above average defenses, as we saw against the Chargers last Monday night. The Raiders are still starting an inexperienced rookie in Aidan O'Connell who should struggle against New York's stout pass defense. Vegas' last primetime game in Las Vegas ended 17-13, and I have the same feeling for this one. The real loser, however, will be the viewers, who are forced to watch Zach Wilson in primetime yet again. Denver Broncos +7.0 at Buffalo Bills The Broncos have won two straight games, including at Kansas City and are sneakily only two games out of the playoff picture with half of the season to go. They're also coming off a bye and have had two weeks to prepare for Bills. Buffalo is struggling mightily this season and can't get out of their own way, even against inferior competition. Denver's defense should keep them in this game and get at least one or two turnovers from Josh Allen. And with their offense improving, I like the Broncos to at least cover the spread on Monday night. Lock of the Week: Dallas Cowboys -17.0 vs. New York Giants This is massive number for an NFL game, but the Giants are absolutely reeling. They've now lost their first and second string QBs to injuries, so rookie Tommy DeVito will get the start on Sunday. DeVito actually played decent, but he also threw two picks. We know what Dallas did the last time these teams met in Week 1, and they'll be looking to take their anger out on someone following a tough loss to Philadelphia. It'll be even sweeter that the revenge game will come against another division rival. For what it's worth, the Cowboys have won 11 straight home games as well. This might be the biggest spread for a Lock of the Week ever, but I'm ultra confident in the Cowboys in this one. Written by Nick Swatson Photo: "NFL Week 3: Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles" by All-Pro Reels is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.
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