NFL Week 10

I felt great about last week's picks, and it paid off for us (literally) with a 5-2 run for week 9.  It was a much needed weekend for us after the 1-6 tragedy we suffered a couple weeks ago.  We now sit right at .500 with a 30-30 record on the season.  The Fade of the Week didn't hit yet again in week 9, and you'd be 6-3 now this year if you faded all those picks.  Let's see what games we're rolling with in week 10 of the NFL season. 

Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys Over 54.5

This might be a tough sell after the Cowboys were shut out by the Broncos for the first 55 minutes of the game last week, but I'm writing off that game as a pure anomaly.  Five of Dallas's eight games this season have exceeded 60 total points, and one of the three in which that did not occur was the game featuring Connor Rush as the starting QB.  Dak Prescott is going to have that offense firing on all cylinders against a weak Falcon defense and points should rain down in Dallas this Sunday.  Atlanta is coming off a big win themselves and should be confident enough offensively to put up several scores of their own.  You can always count on Cordarrelle Patterson to single handedly get one or two touchdowns, if nothing else.

New York Jets +13.0 vs. Buffalo Bills

You're telling me the Bills are favored by nearly two touchdowns on the road after losing 6-9 against the Jacksonville Jaguars a week ago?  That doesn't make a lot of sense to me.  Especially considering the fact that the man, the myth, and the legend, Mike White, will be starting for the Jets on Sunday.  I mean, the guy straight up told the media this week that he should have been the first overall pick instead of Zach Wilson.  You have to love the confidence he has right now, and the Jets' offense has been considerably better with him in the game.  I definitely don't think the Jets will be able to beat the Bills barring another no-show performance from Josh Allen, but I love the Jets to cover here.  I think it could very well be a one possession game in the end.

​Minnesota Vikings +3.0 at Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers have been flat out unimpressive for almost the entirety of the season.  Justin They've been able to win the games they should for the most part, but they haven't managed to blow anyone out, even seemingly inferior opponents.  On the other hand, the Vikings keep every game close regardless of the opponent.  Here are their margins of defeat in their five losses: 3, 1, 7, 4, and 3.  No one plays in more close games that Minnesota has this season, and while they haven't been able to win a lot of those close games, it feels like +3 is a great number to get for this matchup.  L.A. might indeed win, but it seems as if there's no way it'll be by more than 3 points.  If I could have gotten this number at 3.5, I might have actually made it my Fade of the Week.  The potential for a push leaves it as just a regular bet, and theoretically increases the chances of this bet cashing.

Arizona Cardinals -10.5 vs. Carolina Panthers

The Cardinals have been cover machines this season, posting a 7-2 record against the spread thus far.  We just watched Arizona win by 14 and cover in San Francisco last week WITHOUT Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins.  So while both guys are still questionable for week 10, it's clear that the Cards can still get the job done without them.  The Panthers will be starting P.J. Walker at quarterback with Sam Darnold on Injured Reserve, and while they just acquired Cam Newton this week, it's very unlikely he'll get in for this game as he did not have any time to prepare coming in.  So while this is somewhat of a sketchy bet considering the questionable statuses of Murray and Hopkins, I think the Cardinals will cover here either way.  Carolina has just been awful in recent weeks.

Green Bay Packers -3.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks

If there's anything I learned from Green Bay's loss to the Chiefs last week, it's that they would have won by double digits if Aaron Rodgers would have been out there.  Jordan Love was almost able to lead his team to a win in his first career start in Arrowhead, and the Packer defense was playing extremely well against Kansas City.  Now, with Rodgers returning, the Packers will revert back to one of the top three teams in the league in my opinion and shouldn't have too much trouble with a Seahawks team that has been mediocre even with Russell Wilson at the helm.  Wilson is making his return from his finger injury suffered a few weeks ago, but Seattle has been far too inconsistent for the entirety of the season to trust them in this one.  Green Bay is also an amazing 8-1 against the spread this season, which is as good of a reason as any to take them at -3.5 this week.

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers Under 49.5

Maybe I'm reading too much into the Rams' performance last week against the Titans, but they were stymied for most of the game last Sunday night in that one.  This is an extremely important game for both teams, and I think the 49ers know that if they're going to have a chance, they'll have to slow the game down and establish the run, generating long drives and keeping Los Angeles's offense off the field as much as possible.  The Niners may have also learned from some of what Tennessee did to potentially knock Matthew Stafford off his game a little bit.  I don't think the Rams will drop two in a row, but it is worth mentioning that the 49ers have won four straight against them.  I won't mess around with picking against the spread in this one, but the under feels like the safe play for me.

Fade of the Week: Tennessee Titans -3.0 vs. New Orleans Saints

As much as it pains me to say it, the Titans are undoubtedly the hottest team in the league right now.  So as only 3-point favorites at home against a team without their best offensive player and with a backup quarterback, this bet is a no brainer.  The concern is obviously that Tennessee doesn't have Derrick Henry to carry the load on offense, but that defense has been playing so well lately that it doesn't even matter what Ryan Tannehill and the offense are able to do.  Looking at just the last week alone, it's clear that these teams are on two different trajectories coming into this one.  The Titans manhandled the Rams in primetime on Sunday night while the Saints fell to the FALCONS at HOME.  Tennessee should win this game by double digits, although it would be a real shame if my Fade of the Week curse causes them to lose this one.  Seriously, I would be absolutely devastated if that happens.


Written by Nick Swatson