NFL Week 10

Week 9 wasn't great, but it was certainly better than week 8.  My picks went a mediocre 4-3, bringing the season record to an even 30-30-2.  Comically, the "Lock" of the Week fell for the fourth week in a row and sits at a pathetic 2-7 on the year.  I'll be organizing a celebration parade if my "lock" ever hits again.  I'm telling you to fade that pick.

Houston Texans +3.5 at Cleveland Browns

The Browns are coming off a bye to face off against the Texans, but they only managed to score six points two weeks ago against an average Raider defense.  I don't think Houston's defense is as good as Las Vegas's, but they won't need to be to cover on Sunday against Cleveland.  The Texans have been rather unimpressive on both sides of the ball for much of the season, but they still have Deshaun Watson under center and J.J. Watt as the anchor of the defense.  The Browns have had some impressive performances up until week 8, but keep in mind that their pitiful offensive display against the Raiders was their first game without O'Dell Beckham, Jr., who will be missing the rest of the season.  It's certainly possible, if not likely, that O'Dell was a bigger piece of that offense than everyone realized, and Cleveland's offensive potential will be extremely limited without him.  Cleveland has also been banged up on the offensive line, as four of their linemen are listed as questionable going into Sunday's game.  It's likely that at least one of them won't finish the game, and Watt and his fellow pass rushers could be harassing Baker Mayfield all day.  I like the Texans to win, but taking them to cover is the safer play.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers Under 50.5

I might be overreacting from Sunday night's game, but the Bucs looked like they were afraid of scoring points against the Saints.  I think they have to find more success in a rebound game against the Panthers, but I don't think their improvement will be that substantial.  Carolina typically plays games in the low-to-mid-twenties, and I expect them to shorten the game and feed Christian McCaffrey in order to establish the pace of the game.  A low-scoring game definitely favors the Panthers, and I would guess Matt Rhule knows that too.  Despite the star-power of Tampa Bay's offense, especially with the addition of Antonio Brown, they have the potential to put up a lot of points every week.  However, they have been rather pedestrian in most of their games this season and I don't trust them to look much better this week in Carolina.

Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals Over 56.5

This game should be one of the highest scoring games of the week.  Buffalo is coming off a 44-34 victory over the Seahawks in arguably Josh Allen's best performance of the season.  The Bills, while still sitting at 7-2, had struggled from weeks 4-8, but they were able to figure something out on offense and lit up Seattle's defense.  Arizona has scored 30 or more points in all of their last four games, allowing more than 30 in their last two.  Kyler Murray is playing fantastically, and he should have a field day against the Bills' below-average defense.  This should be a fun game to watch, and I think it could come down to which teams gets the ball last.  I fully expect both teams to reach 30 in this one, allowing the over to hit with room to spare.

Miami Dolphins -1.0 vs. Los Angeles Chargers

I have loved betting on the Chargers this season, as I typically feel like they're being underrated in the betting markets.  However, I was stunned to see that Miami is only a one-point favorite in Los Angeles.  The Dolphins are one of the hottest teams in the league, winning four in a row against a pretty good collection of teams (outside of the Jets).  I was puzzled by the switch to Tua Tagovailoa when Ryan Fitzpatrick had been playing so well, but the Dolphins haven't missed a beat following the swap.  I still have a lot of confidence in the Chargers, as they've been on the wrong side of a few bad beats this year, but coming in with only one win in their last seven games, there's no way they should be only one-point underdogs against the Dolphins.  I think Miami wins by a touchdown at least.

New Orleans Saints -10.0 vs. San Francisco 49ers

​Like I said about the Tampa Bay bet, I don't want to overreact to one game, but in New Orleans' case, I'm reacting to their last five.  The Saints have won five in a row, and they were really flying under the radar until their destruction of the Buccaneers on Sunday night.  Until that game, they were only squeaking by their opponents, but a 35-point win is enough to give a team a ton of confidence and a lot of momentum.  Especially when their next opponent is missing their starting quarterback and their two most important pass catchers.  Unfortunately for the 49ers, that is just the case, and I think it's going to be another bloodbath in an opposing stadium when the Saints go marching in to San Francisco on Sunday afternoon.  New Orleans will win by 17-plus points.

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams Over 54.5

My short rationale here is that I think this game plays out very similarly to the Bills-Cardinals matchup I talked about above.  My longer rationale has to do with how terrible Seattle's defense has been, as well as the proficiency of their offense.  The Seahawks are putting up 435 yards per game and scoring nearly 35 points on average.  Russell Wilson has been excellent, and either D.K. Metcalf or Tyler Lockett is basically guaranteed to have a big day each week.  Unfortunately for them, they have to score all those points, and then some, if they want a chance to win.  Their defense is giving up just (yeah, just...) 30 points per game, but is allowing 466 yards per game.  Los Angeles's offense has been inconsistent this season, but their average offensive yardage output is over 400.  When you factor in the futility of Seattle's defense, I think they should be predicted to put up close to 500 this week.  I'm not sure who will win, but I know points will come early and often, and the over will hit easily.

​Minnesota Vikings -3.0 at Chicago Bears

The Bears have to be the worst team above .500 in the league this season.  Their defense is pretty good, but they have absolutely no offense.  What's crazy is that even though they have won more games than they have lost, the Bears are actually being outscored on average this season.  Chicago has dropped three games in a row, and the Vikings are on an opposite trend.  Minnesota got a surprising win over the Packers two weeks ago, and beat the Lions soundly last week.  Dalvin Cook is probably the best running back in the league right now, and he has been shredding defenses as of late.  I have him on my fantasy team, so I can tell you that he has put up a combined 87.8(!!!) fantasy points in the last two games.  That's 478 total yards and six total touchdowns over two weeks.  He'll have a tougher time against Chicago's defense this week, but his efficiency has taken some pressure off of Kirk Cousins and the Viking defense.  While Cook is containable, he doesn't appear to be stoppable at this point, and could potentially carry Minnesota to a win all by himself.  Minnesota's offense won't need to score many points to win, and I expect a final score of around 20-13.

"Lock" of the Week: Miami Dolphins -1.0 vs. Los Angeles Chargers

I have loved betting on the Chargers this season, as I typically feel like they're being underrated in the betting markets.  However, I was stunned to see that Miami is only a one-point favorite in Los Angeles.  The Dolphins are one of the hottest teams in the league, winning four in a row against a pretty good collection of teams (outside of the Jets).  I was puzzled by the switch to Tua Tagovailoa when Ryan Fitzpatrick had been playing so well, but the Dolphins haven't missed a beat following the swap.  I still have a lot of confidence in the Chargers, as they've been on the wrong side of a few bad beats this year, but coming in with only one win in their last seven games, there's no way they should be only one-point underdogs against the Dolphins.  I think Miami wins by a touchdown at least.

Written by Nick Swatson