NCAAF Week 4 Was a Gambling Disaster for Me

I got wrecked in college football this week.  And such is the nature of life at times, it seemed like nothing could go right for me.  So here's my attempt at sorting my thoughts on what happened as well as fully disclosing my losses and complete misfortune in week 4.

In case you didn’t read the week 4 betting article, I’ll include my pick for each game in parentheses next to the matchup.

1. UNLV 30, Fresno State 38 (FRES -30.5)

Doug Brumfield is a dangerous dual-threat quarterback for UNLV, but he got hurt against Iowa State the week before.  It was an upper body injury that I thought would keep him sidelined for at least the Fresno game and maybe longer.  It didn’t, and he lit Fresno State up until he got hurt again.  And the rest is history in that game as the Bulldogs took care of business against the abysmal UNLV team.  They were just a 14-3 deficit too late to make a run at the cover.

2. Liberty 21, Syracuse 24 (LIB -6.0)

I flat out had a wrong read on this game.  Syracuse handled Liberty even though Malik Willis put up fairly impressive numbers again.  Syracuse was just much more effective on the ground than I thought they'd be.

3. Arkansas 20, Texas A&M 10 (Under 47.5)

I had the perfect read on how this game would go and there was no real shot at the over hitting here (foreshadowing: unless it would've somehow gone to overtime).  KJ Jefferson and Trelon Smith were exceptional for Arkansas.

4. Clemson 21, NC State 27 (Under 47.0)

Ah.  Here we go, the beginning of the end for my week.  The under 47 was surely a lock for the entire game.  NC State moved the ball on Clemson but still struggled to find the end zone during regulation, picking up 21(!!!!!) more first downs along the way.  Meanwhile, their scholarship kicker apparently forgot he was supposed to be participating in the biggest game of his life.  He went 0-3 on field goals and is the sole reason this game went to overtime as he missed a 39-yarder at the end of the fourth.  The teams combined for 28 points in regulation, which is exactly what I had written would be around the final score in the contest.  Regardless, double overtime did our bet in and we lost in ridiculous fashion.

5. LSU 28, Mississippi State 25 (Over 56.0)

Last year saw 78 points and over 1,000 yards of offense.  This year we got 830 yards of offense and only 53 points to show for it.  There were 3 untimely turnovers, each of which occurred at or near the other team's red zone.  State also missed a 33-yard field goal and were more lost than Velma without her glasses trying to find the end zone until the 4th quarter.  Not the worst beat in itself, but I wouldn't change my write-up about the game at all.

6. North Texas 17, Louisiana Tech 24 (LA Tech -11.5)

North Texas' defense is horrendous.  They couldn't stop opposing offenses if they had 13 players on the field.  LA Tech, meanwhile, have been humming offensively, going through the Oklahoma and West Virginia transfer QB, Austin Kendall.  This was a surefire win for us.  That is, until Kendall was announced officially inactive for medical reasons 15 minutes before kickoff???  They then proceed to put up their lowest offensive output of the season (286) by almost 100 yards against a defense that allowed 522 yards of offense per game last year!  You'd have to go back to November of 2019 to find the last time they held an opponent to under 286 yards...  And LA Tech was held scoreless in the second half while fumbling and missing a field goal.

7. Notre Dame 41, Wisconsin 13 (Under 46.0)

Although I put this as a lean in the article, I ultimately bet the under of 46 in Wisconsin-Notre Dame and I'd just like to fully encapsulate and appreciate the best impression of the collapse of the Roman Empire potentially ever by the Badgers in this contest.  The game goes into halftime 10-3 ND.  Wisconsin won't find the end zone until almost halfway into the 3rd quarter and there won't be another score until the 4th.  So, we sit 27 points shy of the over and at this point I'm mainly concerned about a potential overtime.  Now let's dive in here, beginning with Notre Dame's fumble at their own 40 leading to a Wisconsin field goal.  They immediately score on a kick six which is followed by a Wisconsin fumble.  The Fighting Irish then go down to score and now lead 24-13, which is a respectable closing number if I'm honest.  Now, Wisconsin's offense goes to full panic mode and this is how their last 4 drives occur: missed field goal, interception, pick six, pick six...  So not only did Graham Mertz cost us the under, he also lost us the push, and ultimately the finishing blow pick six as well.  Unbelievable.  And those are the bets that put the lid on my day and ultimate happiness (followed by Tennessee's loss to Florida). 

In conclusion, Graham Mertz, I hope you never find happiness (only partly kidding).  And I'm writing this article in hopes of turning the tides so to speak on the betting landscape for our season.  So here's to beating Vegas in CFB 2021.

Written by Alex Hill