We're coming off a 3-1 opening week, or 2-1-1 if you weren't able to get the better number on Ohio State (we got it at 13.5 on tuesday but it closed at 14 pretty much everywhere). Regardless, that's cash. Whether you're going for pizza money or rent money, the plan is to take those profits and roll them over this week to double it. And there are certainly a few lines I'm ready to knock out of the park, with all due respect (thanks again Mark Jackson for one of the best sound bites out there).
Florida -29.0 @ USF
This is an away game for Florida, if you want to call it that, as they have a less than 2 hour drive to Raymond James stadium. They face off against a team who went 1-8 last year and has a 2nd year coach. USF is coming off a 45-0 loss in which they gave up 293 yards on the ground, 7.3 yards per carry (YPC), and 4 rushing touchdowns. Interestingly, Florida just this week ran for 400 yards, 8.7 YPC, and also ran 4 scores of their own in. What more needs to be said? The Bulls are a team with no positive direction while the Gators look to build their confidence early in the season to help assist in a hopeful conference championship. The only concern is the potential look-ahead with the looming Bama game next week for Florida, but USF is so abysmal I don't see any other way they keep it to even 5 scores.
Texas -6.5 @ Arkansas
Hudson Card: remember the name. I'm all in on this quarterback and offense until I'm proven wrong. This line jumped 3 points from opening and for good reason, as Arkansas let Rice give them a game for 3 quarters. I mean, a grain-type food group gave Arkansas a scare before their atomical collapse in the 4th quarter. Further, Texas allowed just 3.7 YPC all last season and their starting defensive 11 are all upperclassmen. The Razorbacksâ starting sophomore QB threw just 41 passes all last season and couldn't take advantage of a susceptible Rice defense. I believe Texas gets up early, forcing Arkansas into the air where I don't believe in their ability to take advantage.
Ball State @ Penn State Under 57.5
Penn State returns a ton of production from last year's disappointing team - and they're returning with a vengeance. Holding Wisconsin's offense to 10 points isn't an easy task, but it shows the Nittany Lionsâ defense is ready to show up and show out all year (they won while they ran 44 less plays!). I also lean Ball State +22.5 in this one and this is why. Here's how the game should play out: PSU is the better team and will get a bit of a lead early. They'll start coasting trying to shorten the playbook and run the clock, but their (3.9 YPC in 2020) offense won't be capable of extending the lead much. Meanwhile, their defense allowed less than 200 yards through the air last year which negates and diminishes Ball State's chances of scoring more than a couple touchdowns. I see the game as being closer to 35-17 Penn State winning, but regardless, the under should cover.
Washington @ Michigan Under 48.5
Oregon +14.5 @ Ohio State
Stanford @ USC Over 52.5
Notre Dame -17.0 vs. Toledo
Rutgers @ Syracuse Under 52.0
I wasn't a huge fan of the overall board this week, leaving us with only 3 official bets as I didn't want to force too many plays here. Either way, I hope y'all will be camped out on your recliners with me all day Saturday watching the games. (Well, metaphorically with me at least. Please don't find out where I live just to watch some college football.)
Written by Alex Hill