NCAAF Week 10

We had a frustrating 3-3-1 record last week as the CFB Gods have smited us down again.  Our FSU side ended with a push due to a highly improbably scoop and score for Clemson on the last play of the game for the Noles, who started the play at their own 40 yard line.  Also, I had a total misread on the MSU/Michigan game, as both of those defenses are highly overvalued.  Missouri could've gotten to 41+ if their defense was worth anything at all and could've kept Vanderbilt off the field, but I didn't expect the Dores to actually be able to rush for 260 yards.  Also, who of us had Kentucky allowing an SEC single-game passing percentage record on their BINGO boards?  I definitely did not.  Regardless, we have a new week and a new chance to make some money this week, so let's get to it.
​
Utah Team Total (TT) Over 29.5 @ Stanford

Since Cam Rising has taken over as QB1 for the Utes, they've posted point totals of: 24, 42, 35, 34, and 44 (all against Pac-12 teams).  The Utes also brought Rising in halfway through the third against San Diego State where he scored 21 points in regulation and overtime against one of the best defenses in the country.  Stanford has also given up at least 20 points in every game this season, including to the Vanderbilt Commodores, who would essentially be a toss-up matchup against a local middle school team.  The Utes have topped 450 yards of output in their last 4 games, and I expect that to continue, as they've been efficient on the ground as well, considering the Cardinal are allowing a paltry 5.2 yards per rush this year, as well as 17 rushing touchdowns this year.  Utah will score 35+ in this game, and this is one of my favorite plays of week 10.

Liberty +10.0 @ #16 Ole Miss

Obviously there's a scheduling discrepancy between these teams, but Liberty has only lost by a combined 6 points this season, and in both games they outscored their opponents by a combined 80 yards (as well as outgained all opponents by 1,300+ yards this season).  Matt Corral is clearly pretty banged up as well, and he's been a huge part of not only the passing, but rushing attack as well.  They're also injured in a flurry of other areas offensively, which doesn't bode well facing a defense who allows just 3.4 yards per rush and has given up just one 400 yard game on the season.  I'm not thinking they'll upset the Rebels, but if Matt Corral get reinjured or is unable to go, watch out for the Flames.  Malik Willis is no joke, and he doesn't get many opportunities to show people why he's one of the best quarterbacks in the nation this year.  Liberty +9.5 in what will be the best quarterback matchup of the day.

LSU TT Under 17.5 @ #2 Alabama & 1H -17.0

Both teams are coming off a bye, which in most cases causes me to lean the under.  But, in this scenario, we will just be taking LSU's TT under, and here's why: Ed Orgeron is checked out.  Orgeron is already thinking about what swimming pools he will be frequenting while he's out of a job next season.  Also, Saban will have extra time to prepare, which is a horrifying thought considering their defensive inefficiencies showcased the previous weekend against the Volunteers.  Lastly, it took garbage time for the Tigers to amass 17 points against a mediocre Ole Miss defense.  If you believe Max Johnson will be able to take full advantage of Alabama's secondary then feel free to fade me here, but it's certainly not something I foresee happening.  This game last year also saw the Tide win 55-17, being up 45-14 at halftime, and taking the air out of the game in the second half - which is exactly the scenario I expect to play out this year.

#4 Oregon @ Washington TT Under 22.0

The Huskies are good for the 104th scoring offense in the nation, and they average just 19 points per game (PPG) to teams not named Arkansas State.  They've topped this number just three times in eight tries, and their QB, Dylan Morris, has an 11 TD to 8 INT ratio this year.  The Ducks have forced 8 interceptions of their own this year, and they're excellent against the run.  So, realistically, this should be a matchup nightmare for Washington, whose offense is outdated by about 10 years.  Oregon should hold an early lead they'll look to maintain throughout the game.  In the meantime, every time Morris drops back to pass, Kayvon Thibodeaux will be in his face making life miserable, along with the rest of the Ducks' excellent defensive line (and the last D-line this good they saw was Michigan, who held them to 10 points all game).  I also really like Ducks -7 but won't be officially playing it.

#12 Baylor TT Over 31.5 @ TCU

Longtime TCU Head Coach Gary Patterson parted ways with the program this week, leaving a large void to fill for interim HC Jerry Kill. Now this was a defense that Patterson was unable to salvage, and they'll be going against the 17th ranked scoring offense in the country at 37.4 PPG.  That's not ideal at all for a defense that's allowed marks of 32, 42, 32, 31, 52, 29, and 31 in their FBS games this year (not to mention 487 yards per game (YPG) as well).  Baylor's offense, outside of about 6 quarters in their Iowa State and Oklahoma State games, has been incredibly efficient this season.  Maybe TCU will come out on all cylinders for their former coach, but I have a difficult time assigning points in favor of that theory, because they could just as equally quit on their team as well.  Regardless, this is my favorite play of the week.

Texas @ Iowa State Over 60.0

Last week was an inexplicable loss for the Cyclones as they lost 38-31 at West Virginia.  To me, the Mountaineers remain one of the most unpredictable teams in America as you never know which version you'll get out of them, but I digress.  The Cyclones gave up more passing yards than total yards they'd given up all season going into the game.  But realistically, they haven't faced a great quarterback all season, and the Longhorns possess the best duo they'll have faced to this point.  Texas’, on the other hand, points allowed against P5 teams: 40, 35, 27, 55, 32, and 31.  Iowa State should have relatively easy success throughout the entirety of the game, so our only concern is for Texas to score.  My only qualm with this play potentially is that they'll put up a lot of yards that won't result in points, or if Casey Thompson is off his game (see the TCU game, which I painfully watched).  We're hoping for a Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson show to get us to at least 61 points in Ames, Iowa this Saturday.

Tennessee TT Over 27.5 @ #18 Kentucky

*This is only a play if at these 3 players for Tennessee will be dressing out: Cade Mays, Cooper Mays, and Tiyon Evans* 

That said, if those players suit up, this is one of my favorite plays of the week.  Kentucky is ranked 124th/130 in opponent's completion percentage, and Hendon Hooker for Tennessee has played like a top 10 QB in the nation as a starter for the Vols, with his lone interception during that time occurring on a miscue between him and a receiver.  Kentucky's defensive line has underperformed, only being able to dominate much inferior competition, and their secondary has been shredded as well.  For perspective, they had 12 interceptions through 8 games last year, recording just 3 through that many contests this season.  They were also gifted multiple pick-sixes last year in this matchup, but gained less than 300 yards for the contest.  I'm not sure if Tennessee's defense will be able to stop Chris Rodriguez and the rest of the offense for the Wildcats, but I absolutely believe UT will put up at least 4 touchdowns on the board.  Either way, be sure to tune into this game this Saturday at 7:00 EST, because a win here is huge for both of these programs with the revenge spot looming for the Volunteers.

Houston -13.0 @ South Florida

Houston gave up 145 yards rushing in week 1 to Texas Tech, and they gave up 202 yards to a triple threat offense.  Outside of that, they're allowing just 52 rushing yards per game this season.  Going back to last season when the Cougars went just 3-5, they still managed to beat USF 56-21.  This year, they're winning their road games by a total scoring margin of 129-39.  The Bulls live to run the ball, using a read-option offense through their dual-threat true freshman QB, featuring a ton of slants when they opt to not run.  The problem is, they're completing just 54% of passes with 3 touchdowns to 7 interceptions on the year.  Obviously, Houston is the better team, but I also believe this is a favorable matchup for them as well given those numbers.  Moreover, the Bulls struggle to stop anything defensively, and I believe Houston will be more than capable of complementing their pass game through the ground in this matchup. Essentially, their potent offense will be emphasized even moreso.  I see this game somewhere being closer to 35-17 in favor of Houston assuming nothing extraordinary happens in the game.


Leans:

Kansas State TT Over 40.5 @ Kansas

Kansas has allowed this number in 6 of their 7 FBS games, allowing 35 in the other one.  They've given up at least 215+ yards rushing to every FBS team, and Kansas State possess one of the best running backs in the nation in Deuce Vaughn.  The Wildcats haven't posted this number in 2021 though, which is the reason for the lean.

SMU -4.5 @ Memphis

Tanner Mordecai is the truth, posting 4 TDs per game this year.  Memphis QB Seth Henigan is still a game-time decision as I'm writing this, but it's at Memphis and it could be a big game hangover spot for the Mustangs, whose defense is subpar.

#1 Georgia 1H -24.0 vs. Missouri

Realistically, Georgia should run for more yards per carry than Missouri has points at halftime.  24 points is just slightly too inflated for me to lay money on.

#17 Mississippi State @ Arkansas Under 55.5

This is just under the number of 56 which I don't like, but also Arkansas is one of the most rested teams in the nation, and I'd expect them to have a few wrinkles defensively to make things challenging for Will Rodgers.  MSU's defense is pretty stout in their own right as well.


Written by Alex Hill