NCAAF - SEC Bets - Week 13

11/20/2023

We didn't get any SEC games that went down to the wire until the 7:30pm window in Week 12, as all but two games on the day ended in blowout fashion. Granted, most of those games featured non-Power 5 opponents. I'll talk about just a couple of the matchups we saw on Saturday before we get into our bets for the final week of the regular season.

Georgia appears to be peaking at the right time, and they've looked like the Georgia we've been used to the last couple seasons in their most recent two games against Ole Miss and Tennessee. The Bulldogs spotted the Vols seven points on a 75-yard touchdown rush on the game's first play. But they then went on a 38-3 run to leave no doubt about who the top team in the nation is right now. With a win this Saturday against Georgia Tech, there's a chance that they can make the College Football Playoff regardless of the outcome in the SEC Championship.

Missouri barely survived a scare from Florida in Columbia on Saturday night after they were down what would have been their final play on their eventual game-winning drive. The Gators had the Tigers in a 4th and 17 on Missouri's 33-yard line with 38 seconds left, and they still managed to lose the game. You have to give credit to Missouri for converting and executing the rest of the drive to set up their field goal, but it was a crushing blow to this Florida team. The Gators will likely give Billy Napier one more season to prove himself before making any changes after three straight losing seasons for Florida.

If you think your team had a bad day on Saturday (I'm looking at you Tennessee, Florida, and Kentucky fans), just know it could be much worse. Auburn, who entered their game at home against New Mexico State as 25.5-point favorites, lost by a score of 31-10. It was an utter beatdown from the other Aggies, who had never beaten a Power 5 team before. The Tigers are down bad at the moment, but I do think they should have hope in what Hugh Freeze can do with this team a few years down the line. But until then, Auburn fans will have to suffer through games like these every once in a while.

Speaking of the Tigers, we have to talk about LSU real quick. Jayden Daniels used a prime matchup against Georgia State to put 509 total yards and 8 total TDs in a 56-14 victory. Some might call it stat-padding, but Daniels has still faced a much tougher schedule this season than other Heisman frontrunners Bo Nix and Michael Penix, Jr. If you ask me, from both a statistical perspective and the eye test, Jayden Daniels should without a doubt be the Heisman Trophy winner for this season.

With all that said, here are the two BSSR SEC rankings from Ryne and myself with one week to play.

We've nearly decided a winner in the 2023 BSSR SEC Betting Challenge, as Micah has all but secured his first title barring a spectacular collapse in the final week. As such, it will be a race for second place between Alex, Ryne, and myself this week.

Just for the record, we will be picking the SEC Championship game. So if there are any ties or possibilities for ties after this week, they will hopefully be decided in that final SEC matchup of the season.

We've arrived at rivalry week in the SEC, as each team will play a big game against one of their big rivals - whether that be in or out of conference. We're in for a special treat with the Egg Bowl kicking off on Thanksgiving evening, and Missouri and Arkansas battling on Black Friday. The remaining seven matchups will occur on Saturday per usual.

The closest spread for any game this week is 6.5, so we might see several blowouts again this week. But anything can happen in a rivalry game. So everyone have a good Thanksgiving weekend and enjoy the football action even more by using our consensus picks to win money along the way.

Though at this point, I'd just tail all of Micah's picks.

#13 Ole Miss at Mississippi State (MISS -10.5, O/U 55.5)