NCAAF - SEC Bets - Week 12

11/13/2023

Week 11 was a week of blowouts in the SEC. The smallest margin of victory came in the final game of the night as LSU beat Florida 52-35. The biggest surprises were Auburn's sudden surge of offense to massacre Arkansas and Missouri's beatdown of Tennessee to officially knock the Vols out of the SEC title race.

Georgia also demolished Ole Miss as they appeared to return to their typical form we've gotten used to over the last few years. They clinched the SEC East on Saturday and will face off against none other than Alabama, who also clinched the West with a big win over Kentucky.

Here are the weekly 1-14 SEC rankings from Ryne and myself after Week 11:

I had to bump Missouri up to #3 after their win against Tennessee, which slid Ole Miss and LSU down a slot. I kept Ole Miss ahead of LSU mainly because of the Rebels' head-to-head win earlier this year. I also adjusted the #8-11 spots, which are teams that are sort of hard to differentiate at this point.

Ryne's biggest change by far was plummeting Tennessee from #4 to #11. I suppose he was very unimpressed by the Vols' performance at Mizzou on Saturday. The only rankings that remained static for him were Georgia, Alabama, and Vanderbilt at #1, #2, and #14, respectively.

A few other storylines to note that came out in the days following Saturday's slate:

Both Texas A&M and Mississippi State, who played each other Saturday (if you can consider what the Bulldogs put on the field in that game actually playing football) both decided to part ways with their head coaches early this week. While Mississippi State is only on the hook for about $4.5 million owed to Zach Arnett, Jimbo Fisher will be owed a whopping $77 million to not coach football at A&M. My first question is how can I work my way into getting fired from an SEC head coaching job? Because a deal like that to not work at all is the modern American Dream.

Obviously there are no likely candidates to end up in either role, but some names being floated around for the MSU job include their former head coach and current commentator Dan Mullen, Kansas head coach Lance Leipold, and Liberty head coach Jamey Chadwell. A&M will likely be able to land a bigger fish such as Washington head coach Kalen DeBoer, Oregon head coach Dan Lanning, or Florida State head coach Mike Norvell.

In other coaching drama, we saw a clip from the postgame handshake between Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz and Tennessee coach Josh Heupel, where Drinkwitz sheepishly told Heupel that "we stand on business, Josh" before giving a hasty handshake and fleeing the scene immediately. While the Tigers did get a big win over the Vols on Saturday, it's an interesting thing to say to someone who had beaten you by a combined score of 128-48 the previous two years. It wasn't a great look for Drinkwitz in my opinion, as he didn't even look Heupel in the eyes when he delivered the rather enigmatic phrase. The two teams won't face each other next season, but I'm sure both coaches will circle this matchup on their calendars the next time they meet on the gridiron.

Lastly, we have to talk about how LSU's Jayden Daniels should be the clear frontrunner to win the Heisman Trophy this season. However, he's a pretty sizable underdog and in third place at best depending on the sports book you go to. Here's a look at a comparison in the stats for the current top four contenders:

1. Oregon QB Bo Nix (-150):
9-1 Record / Strength of Schedule Rank: 52
3,135 pass yards, 29 pass TDs, 2 Ints, 77.7% completion percentage / 121 rush yards, 5 rush TDs

2. Washington QB Michael Penix, Jr. (+275):
10-0 Record / Strength of Schedule Rank: 40
3,533 pass yards, 28 pass TDs, 7 Ints, 68.0% completion percentage / 2 rush TDs

3. Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison, Jr. (+500):
10-0 Record / Strength of Schedule Rank: 47
59 receptions, 1,063 yards, 13 total TDs

4. LSU QB Jayden Daniels (+550)
7-3 Record / Strength of Schedule Rank: 3
3,164 pass yards, 30 pass TDs, 4 Ints, 71.4% completion percentage / 918 rush yards, 8 rush TDs

Even though his team doesn't have the best record, Daniels' performance is the most impressive by a wide margin when you factor in his ability to both throw the ball and run the ball. We'll see how the Heisman race plays out as the season winds down over the next couple weeks.

Now for the BSSR SEC Betting Challenge update.

Micah still maintains a sizable lead, but Alex was able to close the gap a bit last week. Alex moved into sole possession of 2nd overall, and he also took the outright lead in the money line category. Micah did move into first in the over/unders, while Ryne took a step back to tie with Jacob for 2nd place in that category.

We have just two weeks remaining in the regular season to see if the SEC Championship will play a role in our leaderboard. Make sure to keep following along to see how it all plays out.

We have a bunch of non-conference games in Week 12 before rivalry week next week, some of which did not have lines provided. The only three SEC matchups are Georgia/Tennessee, Florida/Missouri, and Kentucky/South Carolina. With the conference championship set, each team will be competing for nothing other than pride and bowl placements on Saturday.

UL Monroe at #13 Ole Miss (MISS -37.0, O/U 62.0)