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Betting

NCAAF - SEC Bets - Final Week

11/27/2023

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The 2023 college football regular season is sadly behind us, as the conference championships begin this weekend across the country.  But before we talk about our picks for the SEC Championship Game, I'll discuss everything that went down in the final week of the regular season.

I have to start with what was maybe the most whacky and entertaining game of the season.  That is... unless you're an Auburn fan.  The Tigers had almost nailed the coffin closed on #8 Alabama.  But after an inexplicable muffed punt by Auburn with just under five minutes to play, Alabama regained possession nearly inside the red zone and trailing by four points.  The next four-plus minutes of football was a rollercoaster of momentum and excitement that culminated in a miraculous touchdown pass to the corner of the end zone on 4th and goal from the 31-yard line.  Jalen Milroe had legitimately all day to throw, and placed a perfect pass to Isaiah Bond just out of reach of the defender.

Many people are questioning why Hugh Freeze only rushed two guys and also put a spy on Milroe on that fourth down play.  Obviously Milroe is dangerous on the ground, but if he crosses the line of scrimmage there, you have nearly your whole team waiting to converge on him with a 30-yard cushion.  Other than the spy, I don't see much wrong with the defensive play call.  I think if that play happened 100 times, Alabama might score five or so times.  It was just an unbelievably unlucky break for the Tigers, who end their season on a sour note with a 6-6 record.  On the other hand, Bama's playoff hopes remain alive with a win against Georgia on Saturday.  The Iron Bowl continues to provide some of the greatest endings in college football history.

​Speaking of Georgia, they didn't play their best and managed to sneak by a mediocre Georgia Tech team, which was kind of a trend for a lot of the top teams on Saturday.  Maybe some of these teams were looking forward to championship weekend, and I think they'll come ready to play in Atlanta.  The Bulldogs have now won a ridiculous 29 straight football games in a third straight undefeated regular season.

I have to give credit to Kentucky for their big win over #10 Louisville to salvage a 7-5 season after losing steam as the year progressed.  There were rumblings late Saturday night that Mark Stoops might be leaving for the Texas A&M job.  But it seems like that decision was shot down by the Aggie fanbase.  I can't say I blame them.

​Moving on the Aggies, they put up a good fight against LSU but couldn't close the deal late in that game.  Jayden Daniels had 355 total yards and four touchdowns to put a bow on his phenomenal regular season.  Despite his team's 9-3 record on the year, I think it would be a travesty if anyone other than him takes home the Heisman Trophy this season.  Texas A&M announced the hiring of Duke head coach Mike Elko on Sunday, which was followed by a really odd press conference.  Pretty on brand for A&M.  They managed a 7-5 record this season and will hope to preserve some of their talent in the offseason.

Florida and South Carolina both had big prime time games against ranked in-state opponents, and neither could get the job done.  Both teams will end the season with five wins and miss out on bowl games.  South Carolina QB Spencer Rattler has already declared for the NFL draft, and you have to imagine that both coaches' rear ends are pretty warm from the seats on which they're sitting.  I think both will get one more year to attempt to turn things around.

The other three teams who will be missing out on bowl games this season are Mississippi State, Arkansas, and Vanderbilt, who all lost on three different days last week.  Ole Miss and Missouri both had very good seasons and should be in line for New Year's Six bowls.  Meanwhile, Tennessee's 8-4 finish feels like a step back after the run they went on last season.  However, I think the Rebels, Tigers, and Vols are all in good positions to contend next season and beyond in what will be an even tougher conference with Texas and Oklahoma joining the mix.

​After it's all said and done, here are Ryne's and my 1-14 rankings for the SEC season.  Obviously 1 and 2 will be decided by the SEC championship.

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It's time to crown the winner of the 4th Annual BSSR SEC Betting Challenge.

Congratulations to Micah, who left no doubt with his incredible 21-6 performance to close out the season.  He ended with a 66.4% overall win percentage this year in the regular season, which is the highest we've ever seen in the BSSR SEC Betting Challenge.  The previous best was in our first season, when Jacob notched a 63% win percentage.
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When asked about how he's feeling and how his life will change from the magnitude of winning the BSSR SEC Betting Challenge, Micah, also known nation wide as The Humble Explosion, humbly responded:

“I’m very happy with my outcome this year. I just want to thank my family and friends for supporting me throughout the season. I’m looking forward to defending the title next year and prove that this wasn’t just a fluke. Thank you.”

The figures will change slightly in the table above, and Ryne and Alex are competing for 2nd place with the final game of Betting Challenge on Saturday.  They unknowingly made opposite picks on each category, leaving it up to the outcome of the SEC championship to decide the 2nd place finisher.

Here is the updated BSSR SEC Betting Challenge Hall of Champions:
  • 2020: Jacob
  • 2021: Jacob
  • 2022: Nick
  • 2023: Micah

I'll put together an official analysis article in the next couple weeks where the final leaderboard will be posted following the SEC Championship game.  I'll also break down our collective performance and trends from the season compared with our past season performances.  Stay tuned for that article to see how our picks are progressing from year-to-year and to see who came out on top in the battle for 2nd place.

Good luck to both Georgia and Alabama on Saturday, where the winner should be guaranteed a playoff spot.  If Georgia were to lose, there are also some scenarios where both teams could get in.  But we'll just have to wait to see how the rest of the league shakes out.
#1 Georgia vs. #8 Alabama (UGA -6.0, O/U 54.5)
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Written by Nick Swatson

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Photo:
"111123 LSU Tigers vs Florida State Gators 023 (53545041412)" by Tammy Anthony Baker from Louisianais licensed under CC BY 2.0.
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