While the games from Wildcard Weekend did not disappoint, my betting performance sure did. I gave out four picks across those six games, and only one of them hit. I would have gone 0-for-4 if the Jaguars had not mounted a miraculous comeback to cover 2.5 against the Chargers.
Most teams decided to score a lot of points last weekend, which I did not expect. Additionally, my faith in a Bills cover came crashing down with each brutal mistake they made against a thin Miami team.
However, I'm back with a vengeance today to give you four picks that are sure to hit in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Keep reading if you want free money.
Jacksonville Jaguars +8.5 at Kansas City Chiefs
I get that the Chiefs have the potential to flip a switch and dominate just about any team they face, but I love the Jags getting 8.5 points after just storming back from a 27-0 deficit in perhaps the best half of football they've played all season. Jacksonville has now won six in a row, and even if they don't pull off the upset in Kansas City, I'm sure they'll be able to keep it competitive. I'm a big momentum guy and think that while the Chiefs got a week of rest, the Jags benefitted from a huge win while Kansas City was sitting around watching.
Side note: don't panic if Jacksonville falls behind early...
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles Over 48.0
These teams met in the final week of the regular season, and I think that low-scoring bout has allowed this number to fall lower than it should be. The Giants rested their starters in that game, which is why it was so abnormally low-scoring for an Eagles game. Keep in mind that Philadelphia scored 48 by themselves in the first matchup with New York earlier in the season. Daniel Jones and the Giants offense is rolling right now and while they don't typically generate a ton of points, any game involving the Eagles could turn into a shootout. I'm still picking Philadelphia to win outright, but with how New York has been playing in recent weeks, I'm not sure if this game will turn into a blowout. And that's why I love the over here.
Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 at Buffalo Bills
I was very surprised when I saw how high this number was. When you consider how the first matchup between these teams began, albeit brief, as well as Buffalo's propensity for turnovers and Joe Burrow's seemingly will to win every big game he plays, I think Cincinnati +5.5 is probably the play of the week. I still love this Bills team and understand how talented they are, but they've been a bit erratic down the stretch of the regular season and were, frankly, fortunate to advance past the Dolphins a week ago. I'm riding with the Bengals to at least cover the 5.5, if not win outright. This feels like a game that will be decided by a last-second field goal for whoever possesses the ball last.
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers Over 46.0
These two defenses were top five in the league in terms of points allowed for the regular season, but also ranked four and six in offensive scoring. So something has to give in their battle on Sunday night. And after watching each team's game in round one, I like this to be a high-scoring affair. We have one offense with perhaps the most talented group of skill players in the league led by Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle, and on the other side is the team with the most proven quarterback remaining of the four NFC teams. Dallas dominated a solid Buccaneer defense on Monday night, and there's no chance Brett Maher will perform as poorly as he did in that game. This could be the most competitive game of the weekend alongside Cincinnati-Buffalo, and I think both teams will score at least 27 regardless of who wins.
Enjoy your 4-0 weekend alongside me and check back on Monday when I'll be going over my takeaways for each of the four games played over the weekend.
Written by Nick Swatson