We took an unfortunate step back in Week 6, delivering a weak 2-4-1 record. However, the Lock of the Week hit with ease, so there is still some good mojo to try to roll over into Week 7. Our season record has dropped to 19-22-1 with a 3-6 Lock of the Week, but it's time to finally turn our luck around with a stellar performance this time around.
Jacksonville Jaguars -6.0 vs. New England Patriots
I'm 2-0 so far on London bets, and we'll keep it going this week as the Jags take on the Pats overseas. The Jaguars haven't been good at all this season, but extraordinary games out of the country seem to cause a little bit of chaos to the normal order. Jacksonville has been in London for two weeks now after playing there in Week 6, and so they'll have the advantage from a psychological and physiological standpoint. This is only Drake Maye's second career start, and while he didn't look bad in his debut last week, you're asking a lot of such a young and inexperienced guy to perform well in this spot. I think the Jags get it done by more than a touchdown.
Cincinnati Bengals -5.5 at Cleveland Browns At just 2-4 on the season, it's make or break time now for the Bengals. And after a nice win over the Giants last week, this is another great opponent for them to try to get their season back on track. Joe Burrow has actually never won in Cleveland so far in his career, but this is the prime opportunity for that to change. The Browns have essentially given up on the season in my estimation after trading away Amari Cooper this past week. Deshaun Watson is playing historically badly, but Cleveland's coaching staff seems to have no interest in benching him. I think the Bengals will win big. Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers Over 48.5 These two young quarterbacks have played well in this young season, and both offenses exploded last week in big wins. Joe Mixon's return to Houston's backfield really helped offset their loss of receiver Nico Collins, and the Texans actually hit the Over all by themselves in their win over New England. Meanwhile, the Packers offense has gotten healthy and Jordan Love has thrown 10 touchdown passes over the last three games. So I'm siding with the over in a game I think could turn into a shootout. New York Giants +3.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles The Giants couldn't get much going last week on Sunday night, but they've looked better than I expected coming into the season. That's mostly due to their defense and the surge of rookie Malik Nabers as a clear number one receiver. And Nabers will finally be back in the offense after missing two games with a concussion. Philadelphia hasn't been very good this year, despite their winning record, and their offense has been really bad on the road. I think there's a good chance the Giants can get a win on their home turf, but there's an even better chance that they cover the 3.5. Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers Under 47.0 Both of these offenses are coming off good performances, but I think this game will be more defined by the defenses. San Francisco's goal will be to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field, so I think they're going to try to shorten the game with long, extended drives. Kansas City's offense is still far from full strength, which at least slightly limits their potential. I expect this to be a low scoring affair, something like 23-20 one way or the other. New York Jets -1.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers This is partially the Davante Adams effect for me here. The Jets have been great on defense but haven't quite gotten it going offensively yet, and the reuniting of Aaron Rodgers with Adams is just the thing that could ignite a spark. It'll also be Russell Wilson's first game of the season for Pittsburgh, and I think there will be some rust he'll have to try to shake off in his debut with a new squad. The Jets should have covered when I picked them last week, so we're due for one here. Lock of the Week: Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 49.0 These are perhaps the two hottest offenses in the NFL right now. Over the last three weeks, the Ravens have scored 41, 35, and 30 points, while the Bucs have accounted for 51, 33, and 30 points. However, both defenses have been susceptible to surrender scores at a high clip as well. Five of Baltimore's six games this season have gone over (including all three road games), as have four of Tampa Bay's contests. All signs point to a shootout on Monday night between these two, which is why the Over is my Week 7 Lock of the Week. Written by Nick Swatson Photo: "NFL Week 3: Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles" by All-Pro Reels is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.
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