NFL Week 5

I must say, it feels like I've been very unlucky betting on the NFL so far this season.  And Week 4 was the worst luck I've had in quite a while.  I gave out a record nine picks last week and I was very confident in all of them, yet only turned in a 4-5 record.  However, there were three really bad beats in there that spoiled a potential 7-2 week.  I want to recap those three bad beats really quick before we get to this week's bets.

Bad Beat 1: Cleveland Browns -2.0 at Las Vegas Raiders

The Browns didn't play great in this game, but had an 82-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter called back due to a very suspect holding call.  That score would've completely changed the momentum of the game, as neither team scored again for the remainder of the game.

Bad Beat 2: Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens Over 46.5

If you would've told me before this game that the Ravens were going to score 35 points, I would've gone ahead and rolled over the money I was about to win into another bet.  Alas, the Bills could not get anything going on offense.  Credit to Baltimore's defense, but the point total was 38 with just under three minutes to play in the fourth.  I thought for sure Buffalo would get some points on the board in garbage time if nothing else, but that wasn't the case.  So we fell two points short.

Bad Beat 3: Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins Under 36.5

This one was the worst one.  It had absolutely no business going over.  I actually turned this game off in the first half because it was so unbearable to watch these putrid offenses struggle against each other.  And then we had 15 points scored in the last three minutes of the game!  We were still fine when Miami scored a garbage time TD, but then they took a safety on first down from their own 8-yard line their next possession.  We were STILL under at this point, but then, a series of penalties and some kind of onside kick on a safety punt gave the Titans the ball back at the Miami TEN YARD LINE.  They could have easily just knelt it out or taken a turnover on downs with just seconds to play, but decided to go for it on fourth down and run it in for a TD with 24 seconds left to take the game over.  I about had an aneurysm when I first heard about that series of events.

Okay, now that my venting session is over, it's time to move on to Week 5.  On the bright side, the Lock of the Week finally hit for the first time in four weeks.  We'll take our 12-15 record into this week and try our best to get back to .500.

Minnesota Vikings -2.5 vs. New York Jets

I'd argue the Vikings are the best team in the NFL at this moment.  (Though it's still very early.)  They're also 4-0 all time in London, which is where this game will be played.  The Jets are struggling mightily on offense, as they lost last week to a team that only passed for 60 yards all game.  Minnesota is familiar with Aaron Rodgers from his time in Green Bay and I think they'll make it tough for New York to put many points on the board.  I like the Vikings in the first of this year's London games.

Washington Commanders -3.5 vs. Cleveland Browns

This Commanders offense is one of the hottest in the league so far.  And their offense's commander, Jayden Daniels, is a big reason why.  He's been unbelievable to start his NFL career and I think he continues that against a struggling Browns team whose lone win is against a bad Jaguars team.  Washington should win by at least a touchdown.

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars Under 46.0

Speaking of that bad Jaguars team, they're finally getting a favorable matchup when the Colts roll into town on Sunday.  The Jags have owned the Colts at home in recent years, but they've been so bad this season that I'm not putting money on them to win.  Instead, I'm rolling with the under.  The Jags have yet to eclipse 20 points this season, and the Colts may be without both Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor.  Joe Flacco did play very well in Richardson's absence last week, but this isn't a team that's going to air it out all day.  I like the under a lot in this matchup.

Arizona Cardinals +7.5 at San Francisco 49ers

This feels like a lot of points for a divisional game, especially when the 49ers haven't looked all that great this year either.  Big underdogs have been covering at an unusually high rate this season, and I think this is a great value play.  Kyler Murray and the Cardinals are going to figure out eventually and get back to the first two weeks when they were raining down points.  I think they at least keep this a one possession game throughout.

New York Giants +7.0 at Seattle Seahawks

Listen to this stat.  Teams that have played against the Lions this season have been outscored in their next game by a combined score of 109-31.  And who did the Lions play last week?  The Seahawks.  I think Seattle is a good team, but this trend does indicate how physically exhausting it is to slug a game out against Detroit.  Even with Malik Nabers sidelined with a concussion, I've generally liked what I've seen from the Giants this season.  Or at least I've liked them enough to be comfortable betting on them to cover a touchdown spread on the road, which is kind of saying a lot. 

New Orleans Saints +5.5 at Kansas City Chiefs

This feels like a no brainer to me.  The Chiefs are reeling from an offensive standpoint.  Their RB1 and WR1 have both gone down for an extended period, and the only reason they defeated the Chargers last week is because of their stifling defense.  Like I said last week when I picked the Chargers to cover (and they did), Kansas City is known for winning close games and not covering in the early part of the season.  Derek Carr and the Saints have cooled off since their hot start, but they've just barely lost each of their last two games.  I think there's a good chance New Orleans wins this game, so getting them at +5.5 is tremendous value.

Lock of the Week: New England Patriots +1.0 vs. Miami Dolphins AND Under 35.5

I wouldn't want my worst enemy to be forced to watch this game.  But even with how bad the Patriots are, I can't get over how horrendous the Dolphins are without Tua at quarterback.  This won't have as many crazy plays like Monday night did.  It'll just be a good old fashioned, Bill Belichick-esque style game where the final ends up something like 12-10 in favor of New England.  And the rare Double Lock of the Week will hit with ease.

​Written by Nick Swatson

Photo:
"NFL Week 3: Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles" by All-Pro Reels is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.