NFL Week 4

No damage was done in Week 3, as we went 3-3 on the six picks I gave out for the week.  Unfortunately though, the Lock of the Week has gotten off to a very rough start through three weeks after the Cardinals and Lions let us down last Sunday.  We take an 8-10 record into Week 4, but I'm feeling so good about this week's slate of games that I'm giving out an unprecedented NINE plays for this week.

It's time to get back above .500 on the year.

​Minnesota Vikings +2.5 at Green Bay Packers

We're still not sure about Jordan Love's availability for this game, and even though Malik Willis has played well in his absence, the Packers haven't faced very stiff competition in their two victories.  Minnesota is coming off back to back wins against San Francisco and Houston, the latter of which they absolutely dominated a week ago.  I love the Vikings as road underdogs here, mostly because I think Green Bay will struggle to score.

Denver Broncos at New York Jets Under 39.5

I know Denver is coming off a big win over the Buccaneers, but I watched what this Jets defense did to the Patriots last Thursday night and think we could see a similar story in this one.  New York has had 10 days to prepare and I think the Broncos will be hard pressed to get to double digits.

Los Angeles Rams +3.0 at Chicago Bears

I initially thought this line was incorrect.  I guess the home field advantage in Chicago is good, but this Bears offense isn't.  Caleb Williams has been trending up, to be fair, but I predict Sean McVay's Rams defense to make it very tough for the rookie quarterback.  Even though L.A. is reeling from the injury bug on offense, they're still getting it done with some of the backups.  I love the Rams as 3-point dogs in this one.

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 43.0

I haven't been impressed with Jalen Hurts and this Eagles offense at all this season, but their defense is legit.  They just held the Saints, who scored 47 and 44 points in Weeks 1 and 2, to just 12 points in a grueling win last week.  After a hot start, Tampa Bay's offense has come back down to earth.  The first to 20 should win this game, if either team actually manages to reach it.

Los Angeles Chargers +7.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs

I'm not too sure why the Chiefs, who haven't won a game by more than one score this year, are favored by more than seven points on the road against the Chargers.  The Chargers are notorious for playing the Chiefs very closely, and the Chiefs are notorious for not covering early on in the season.  A perfect storm for this bet if you ask me.

Cleveland Browns -2.0 at Las Vegas Raiders

I'm not big on the Browns at all, but the situation in Vegas is feeling very off.  Davante Adams was suddenly designated as Out in the middle of the week, and Maxx Crosby is also not expected to play.  That means the best player on offense and defense for the Raiders won't be in the lineup.  Even though it's always a little sketchy to bet on road favorites in the NFL, this is certainly one of those exceptions.

Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens Over 46.5

Nobody is hotter on offense than the Buffalo Bills, who have scored over 30 points in each of their games so far.  And the Ravens finally got their offense fully rolling last week in Dallas.  I expect points to be abundant in what could very well be the most exciting game of the week on Sunday night.

​Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins Under 36.5

And on the polar opposite end of the spectrum from Buffalo at Baltimore, these two teams are a disgrace to offensive football.  The Titans have yet to score 20 points in a game, and the Dolphins are coming off a 3-point outing in their first game without Tua Tagovailoa.  This could end up being the worst collective display of offense we'll witness in a professional football game since the forward pass was introduced.

Washington Commanders at Arizona Cardinals Over 49.0

I absolutely love what Jayden Daniels has done so far in his rookie season, especially because he's one of my fantasy QBs.  And after taking an over in a Cardinals game burned me last week, I'm rolling with it again this week.  Washington's defense won't be nearly as stout as Detroit's and Klif Kingsbury is going to want to pour some points on his former team.  This is the Lock of the Week, Month, and Year.

​Written by Nick Swatson

Photo:
"NFL Week 3: Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles" by All-Pro Reels is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.