NFL Week 3

We took a step in the right direction last week after a shaky start to the season, going a decent 4-3 overall.  That brings our season record to 5-7, so still some work to be done to get above .500 here early.  Unfortunately, the Lock of the Week has started 0-2.  I was wavering a little on which game to denote as the Lock last week, and I should have gone with one of the other picks I was confident in that actually hit.

​But I'm feeling extra confident this week.  I'm riding on a lot of unders this week as there are several matchups that should yield strong defensive play in conjunction with the worst offensive start league wide in recent NFL history.  Let's get straight into it. 

New Orleans Saints -3.0 vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The Saints have had the hottest start of any team in the league this season.  They just went into Dallas and hung 44 on the Cowboys in a blowout win.  They're so good that the citizens of New Orleans have stopped murdering each other.  And now they'll be back at home hosting a game in the Superdome against an Eagles team who hasn't looked great thus far.  Especially with A.J. Brown out, the Saints should have no problem containing Philly's offense.  I think they win by at least a touchdown.

Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings Under 46.0

This is a relatively high over/under for an NFL game, and I we're going to use that to our advantage.  Both teams are 2-0 this year, and both squads have been winning with their defense.  Minnesota just held San Francisco to 17 points after stifling the Giants in Week 1.  Houston is probably better offensively than even the hamstrung 49ers, but Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce being out will be a big deal for their ability to establish the run game.  And the Vikings love to play that Cover 2 defense that Mel Kiper wants barred from the league.  I think the first team to 20 wins this game.

Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers Under 35.0

In a similar vein, check out the points allowed by these two defenses: 13 total for L.A. and 16 total for Pittsburgh.  Despite being 2-0, the Steelers have been horrible on offense.  They just have such a good defense that they can win by scoring in the teens.  And Jim Harbaugh has turned the Chargers into a Big 10 team scheme wise.  Not to mention that Justin Herbert is dealing with an ankle injury which might limit his mobility and effectiveness.  Points will be very hard to come by in this one.

Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks Under 42.0

This one is a little different because if both teams were at full strength, I would be inclined to take the over.  But Miami will be starting Skylar Thompson for the first time this season, and defensive minded head coach Mike MacDonald of the Seahawks should throw some looks at Thompson to confuse the young QB.  The Mike McDaniel experiment seems like it is starting to fracture, and the Dolphins' offense has been much worse than most people anticipated through two games.  Kenneth Walker is also out for the Seahawks, which will hinder their offense at least a little bit.  Give me the under.

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams Under 43.5

This is another injury-fest in a west coast matchup.  Let's run through the list of injured players for both offenses who won't be suiting up.  For the 49ers, we have Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle.  And for the Rams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.  If you take away San Francisco's stars, the offense struggles.  That's been my biggest concern about Brock Purdy by the way, but they were only able to amass 17 points last week with a trimmed roster against the Vikings.  The Rams need a win badly after starting 0-2, and I think they'll try to rely on their defense to secure that.

Lock of the Week: Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals Over 51.5

In a week of Unders, this week's Lock is a rare Over.  And that's mainly because this Cardinals offense has looked so good early on this season.  Kyler Murray has been cooking after missing most of last season with an injury, and they're coming off a 41-point routing of the Rams a week ago.  But the Lions are also going to contribute to this game going over the point total.  Detroit tends to play very well following a loss under Dan Campbell, and they should bounce back nicely after their home loss last week.  But defensively, they've struggled historically against mobile quarterbacks.  So Kyler Murray will be a problem for the Lions.  And they'll have to get it done with their offense to match the fireworks Arizona will deliver.  Even though this point total is a bit on the high side, I'm confident that this could be the highest scoring game of the weekend.  And we desperately need it to be to get the Lock of the Week its first victory of the season.

​Written by Nick Swatson

Photo:
"NFL Week 3: Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles" by All-Pro Reels is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.