NFL Week 1

We've finally made it through the doldrums of sporting boredom and the National Football League has already kicked off its 2024 season.  And like I've been doing for several years now, I'll be giving out the best bets to put your money on each week of the NFL season so that you can profit whether or not your favorite team finds success this year.

I'll be honest.  I'm coming off a somewhat mediocre betting year last season.  But I still finished with a winning record of over 53 percent.  And the better news is that my Locks of the Week finished the 2023-24 season with a 12-6 record.  So get strapped in and set reminders to check BSSR's betting articles each week, because I'm ready to go on the biggest heater of my sports gambling career through all of 2024.

Now normally, I like to try to give out seven plays each week, including the Lock of the Week.  But given the difficulty of predicting Week 1 outcomes, and the fact that I'm even more busy than usual this week, I'm slimming that down to just five bets for this week.  But don't be concerned, because, barring anything extraordinary, we'll pick back up to seven picks per week starting next week.

Let's go ahead and begin the 2024-25 campaign with a 5-0 start in Week 1.

​New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals Under 41.0

Much like everyone else, I'm not high on New England's offense heading into the season.  At least not until Drake Maye inevitably takes over at quarterback later in the year.  I don't see them putting up a lot of points on Cincinnati's defense.  And speaking of Cincinnati, Joe Burrow could potentially be without his top three receivers and his workhorse running back from a season ago.  Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd are gone, Tee Higgins is doubtful with a recent hamstring injury, and Ja'Marr Chase is still potentially holding out until he gets a new contract.  Who would be Burrow's WR1 if Higgins and Chase are both out on Sunday?  Andrei Iosivas.  I needn't say more.  Take the under.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins Over 49.5

On the opposite end of the spectrum, I love Mike McDaniel's Dolphins teams early in the season.  They have a tendency to put up a ton of points at the beginning of the year as they regroup with a fully healthy lineup and launch some new plays and packages the squad has cooked up in the offseason.  And combining Miami's offensive with the explosive playmakers that Trevor Lawrence has at his disposal, I could see this game becoming very high scoring.  I'd side with the over and enjoy the fireworks.

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions Over 52.0

​This is sure to be an epic battle between two QBs who have something to prove to their former teams.  And their offensive units will be fully healthy this time to help accomplish that.  I absolutely love Detroit's offense.  After nearly reaching last year's Super Bowl, they extended Jared Goff and kept the entire offensive nucleus intact, which features guys like Amon-Ra St. Brown, David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta and Jameson Williams.  Teams are going to have to gameplan hard to slow down the Lions.  And Matthew Stafford's weapons are staunch in their own right, from the receiver duo of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua to running back Kyren Williams, who is poised to have a breakout campaign.  I think a lot of points will be scored in this one and we should hit the over with ease.

New York Jets +4.0 at San Francisco 49ers

If the NFL were scripted, the New York Jets would be your Super Bowl 54 champions.  What a turn of events it would be for Aaron Rodgers to go from season ending injury on the opening drive of the season one year ago, to delivering the Jets a Super Bowl run for the first time since the 1960s.  Now, I don't believe the NFL is scripted.  But I do think that this Jets team is loaded with talent and could very well hoist the Lombardi Trophy in February.  Their defense was elite last season, but they had absolutely no offense to rely upon and were playing from behind in nearly every game.  Now imagine Rodgers, with a bevy of weapons to choose from, can score some points and give the Jets a lead to protect.  The defense will be freed up to be even more aggressive and cause even more problems for opposing offenses.  The 49ers are obviously going to be very good again this year, but New York at +4 is too good of a number for me not to take.  So I'll be siding with the Jets on Monday night.

​Lock of the Week: Houston Texans -3.0 at Indianapolis Colts

I think I've given this out before in Week 1, and that's because, historically, the Colts are terrible in their opening games.  Actually, they haven't won a Week 1 game in over 10 years now.  And I don't see that changing when the division favorite Houston Texans roll into town.  C.J. Stroud's offense played fantastically last season and they added even more weapons in Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon to improve even further.  I also have little faith in Anthony Richardson at this point of his career.  He might be a great player down the line, but it's still too early after he only played a handful of quarters in his rookie year.  I think the Texans will win without too much trouble.

Written by Nick Swatson

Photo:
"NFL Week 3: Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles" by All-Pro Reels is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.