Well, it looked like we were finally going to do it last week. We got out to a 5-0 betting start in the early window on Sunday, but the gambling gods giveth and the gambling gods taketh away. Our final two bets of the day lost massively. Still, our 5-2 record takes us to a now respectable 36-32-2 record for the season.
I didn't really know which game to select as the Lock of the Week last week, but of course it was one of our two losses. The weekly Lock has faltered as of late and has dropped to 5-8 on the year. Let's turn that around here in Week 11. Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints Under 44.0
Jameis Winston's offense came spiraling back down to Earth in their last game after his explosive debut in Week 9. They hadn't been good before then under Deshaun Watson and are even more gutted offensively at this point in the season. The Saints finally stopped their seven game losing streak last week but have been awful on offense regardless. There won't be many points scored in this one.
Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets Under 43.5 Anthony Richardson is back in the lineup for the Colts, which I think is the right decision. But in the short term, the Colts aren't very good offensively with him in the lineup. And the Jets might somehow be even worse. I thought New York had figured it out in that Thursday night game a couple weeks ago. But they could only muster 6 points in a blowout loss at Arizona last week. This will be a very low scoring affair as Indy operates inefficiently and New York continues to struggle on the road. Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos Over 45.0 Both these squads are coming off low-scoring games. But I expect this one to feature a lot more points. Denver is susceptible to allowing big numbers against good offenses, and this Falcons offense can be very good when they're clicking. I like what Bo Nix has been doing so far too, so I think this could turn into a shootout. Take the over. Kansas Chiefs +2.5 at Buffalo Bills I actually think the Bills have a great chance to hand the Chiefs their first loss of the season this week, but I can't bet against the Chiefs as underdogs at this point. They've found a way to win in some miraculous ways, including by blocking a field goal as time expired last week against Denver. I don't know what it is, but Kansas City has some kind of magic on their side that I'm not siding against. Cincinnati Bengals +1.5 at Los Angeles Chargers We've been saying it for a while, but it's finally time for the Bengals to turn it on. They were a failed two point conversion away from knocking off the Ravens last Thursday and will have had 11 days to prep for the Chargers. L.A. has benefitted recently from playing weak opponents, but that won't be the case this week. Tee Higgins is off the injury report and the offense is at full strength for a big Sunday night game that Cincy needs to win. Houston Texans -7.0 at Dallas Cowboys This Cowboys offense is miserable. With or without Dak Prescott, really. But they're especially bad without him. Dallas played two QBs against Philadelphia last week and only amassed 61 passing yards. They turned it over five times and the Eagles rolled to a 34-6 win. And I don't think it's going to look much different when the Texans, with a now healthy Nico Collins returning, come into town. Give me Houston to win big. Lock of the Week: Green Bay Packers -6.0 at Chicago Bears The Bears haven't defeated the Packers since December of 2018. In fact, none of their ten losses since then has been decided by fewer than seven points. This Bears offense is sputtering right now, only scoring 12 total points over the last two games. Green Bay had a week off to heal and regroup and will continue their dominance over Chicago on Sunday. Written by Nick Swatson Photo: "NFL Week 3: Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles" by All-Pro Reels is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.
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