NCAAF - SEC Bets - Week 14

11/27/2024

Week 13 wreaked havoc on some of the SEC's top playoff contenders.

We thought we witnessed the upset of the day when Florida knocked off #9 Ole Miss in Gainesville in the opening window of action. Jaxson Dart threw three interceptions in the last two minutes of the game (one of which was overturned by replay) to prevent the Rebels from tying it up late. The Gators have a good shot at achieving a 7-win season, which seemed nearly impossible given their schedule going into the year. Ole Miss, on the other hand, is almost assuredly out of the CFP barring some additional chaos in the next couple weeks.

I said we merely thought we witnessed the upset of the day thanks to the Oklahoma Sooners, who mopped the floor with #7 Alabama in primetime in Norman. Jalen Milroe played his worst game of the season and the Sooners took advantage of it, taking an interception to the house to eventually cap off the win. Alabama was robbed of a touchdown on their penultimate drive, which would have cut it to a 14-point game with 14 minutes to play. But I'm not convinced it would've mattered by the end of it, regardless. Bama needs a lot of things to go their way to salvage a spot in the playoff, though the committee will probably do everything they can to put them in the field.

The most exciting game of the day was Auburn's thrilling four overtime win against #15 Texas A&M. The Tigers pounced to a 21-0 lead early in the second quarter before A&M battled back to take the lead with four minutes to play. An Auburn last second field goal sent it to overtime, where the teams traded scores until Marcel Reed's two-point pass in the end zone was dropped by his receiver. I still abhor the new OT format of swapping two-point attempts after the second overtime. The old format was my favorite post-regulation format in sports. We need to Make College Overtime Great Again.

A couple other games of note were Texas's comfortable win over Kentucky and LSU fending off Vanderbilt in Baton Rouge. Other than Missouri's big win over Mississippi State, the remainder of the league spent their Saturday beating up on mid-major opponents. Though some of those mid-majors might be better than Mississippi State, to be honest.

After the wild weekend across the country that also featured losses from #5 Indiana, #14 BYU, #16 Colorado, and #19 Army, here's how the College Football Playoff bracket would look if the season ended today.

The major upsets Saturday led to three teams falling from last week falling out. Alabama, Ole Miss, and BYU are currently out now, replaced by Tennessee, SMU, and Arizona State. This time next week, we'll have a really good idea for which 12 teams will be making the final cut after conference championship week.

Here's our BSSR Playoff Tracker after Week 13.

Though the path got significantly tougher for two of the seven teams still alive above, they haven't been fully eliminated yet. Texas, Georgia, and Tennessee are likely comfortably in barring any major upsets. Texas A&M can still jump everyone if they beat Texas Saturday and then Georgia in the SEC Championship. It'll be interesting to see what would happen to South Carolina if they beat #12 Clemson this week. Will they be able to jump two teams who they've already lost to this season? It'll be an intriguing dilemma for the CFP committee.

Here are the BSSR Power Rankings after Week 13:

Here's the updated BSSR Expert Leaderboard:

We've had somewhat of a sizable shift in the leaderboard after an untimely dreadful week for Micah. Ryne managed to jump to the top of the standings, leaving a three-way tie for 2nd place four games behind him. This is still anyone's crown to win, except, unfortunately, for Alex. (Sorry, Alex.)

As a reminder, next week's SEC Championship Game will count toward the BSSR Betting Challenge, so we'll see if there will be anything riding on that game or not.

Here's the Guest Picker Leaderboard:

Another crazy week in the SEC caused another mediocre week for our guest picker. We have just one guest picker left on the docket to try to dethrone Alex P.

This week's guest picker is Ayden Hill. Ayden will be the youngest guest picker in BSSR history at just seven months old. He is a multi-dimensional prodigy for his age, as he can already perform Beethoven's Moonlight Sonata on piano, as well as dribble a basketball better than most adults (myself included). An intellectual ahead of his time, he read Plato's Republic within his first three months of life. Ayden's participation in this challenge means that the entire Hill family will have competed in one way or another. We'll see if the young Ayden can outperform his mom, Deidre, or his dad, Alex. The latter of which should not be very difficult to accomplish.

We have a ton of huge games to watch this Thanksgiving weekend. It's rivalry week in the final week of the regular season, meaning each team will have a little extra to play for. #7 Georgia and #8 Tennessee are playing essentially "win and you're in" games against Georgia Tech and Vanderbilt, respectively. #15 South Carolina travels to #12 Clemson in what could be a game for one of those last playoff spots. And #3 Texas and #20 Texas A&M battle for a spot in the SEC Championship Game. A win for the Aggies keeps their playoff hopes alive, while a loss puts them out for good.

As always, you can roll with our consensus picks below to make the slate of games on Friday and Saturday even more enjoyable for you. The folks at BSSR hope everyone has a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday.

Mississippi State at #14 Ole Miss (MISS -25.5, O/U 61.5)